Duke Basketball: Predictions for the ACC Tournament

The Duke Blue Devils start their postseason Thursday night, March 12, against the winner of NC State vs. Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina. Despite failing to win the unofficial regular-season title (the ACC recognizes only the conference tournament champion), Duke has put together a highly successful run to date. The team finished 28-3 overall and 15-3 in the conference, with wins over Wisconsin, Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame, and most important, a season sweep of rival UNC.

As conference tournament play begins, Duke is looking to take the throne back of a tournament they have—until recently—owned. From 1999 to 2011, Duke won 10 out of 13 ACC tournament championships, including five straight to start the run. The Devils have failed to win since 2011 and find themselves in the odd position of not having a single player on the team who was experienced winning the tournament.

Winning a conference tournament is always a big-time accomplishment, but there are a few factors that would make a win this year particularly sweet for Duke. Most important are the seeding implications for the Big Dance.

If Duke wins the tournament, it will be locked in for a No. 1 seed and most likely play its first two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Charlotte. Losing anytime before the championship game would potentially knock the Devils down to a No. 2 seed, especially with other top teams like Arizona and Wisconsin likely to roll through their conference tournaments.

Winning this year would also go a long way to re-establishing that Duke is still atop the pecking order in the ACC despite all the league’s recent changes. With Virginia emerging as a national power and big-time programs Louisville, Syracuse and Notre Dame now in the conference, Duke can let everyone know it’s still king with a tournament championship.

Duke has a great chance to win the crown back in the next few days. This is how I see it going down.

Duke Will Get Some Sweet Revenge

There is a decent chance that Duke will face two of the three teams they lost to in their first two games of the tournament. If NC State and Miami both win Wednesday, Duke will play State on Thursday and, if they advance, would face the winner of Miami and Notre Dame Friday night in the semifinals.

The Wolfpack is playing its best ball of the season and should advance past Pittsburgh, but I don’t see the Pack getting a second win over Duke. The players will be fully aware of how much another quality win would improve their seeding in the Big Dance, but Duke has come a long way since the teams met in Raleigh on January 11th.

The first meeting was the first time this year that Jahlil Okafor’s poor defense was taken advantage of. Coach K has since made defensive adjustments that better hide Okafor and prevent him from being exposed in pick-and-rolls. Duke has gone zone at times and now switches almost every screen in order to avoid confusion.

In the first meeting, Justise Winslow played poorly and went just 3-of-13 from the field, 1-of-6 from deep. Winslow has since changed to a more attacking style of play that better suits his skills and is averaging 15.3 points and 7.7 rebounds over the past 12 games. The Wolfpack start three traditional guards and two traditional big men and are without a true wing player who can match Winslow’s combination of strength and speed. Look for Winslow to be the difference-maker in this potential rematch.

If Duke advances to the semifinals, I expect a third game against Notre Dame. The Devils already exorcised the demons of their loss in South Bend by putting a 43-7 run on the Irish in Durham and winning 90-60. Duke will not win by that much again, but it should be able to handle the Irish.

Coach K devised a great defensive scheme to shut down the Irish’s drive-and-kick attack, and Notre Dame’s small lineup plays right into the hands of the smaller starting five Duke has been deploying lately. The Irish could stay in the game with some hot shooting, but the team’s porous defense will ultimately allow the Devils to advance.

Duke and Virginia Will Have Another Epic Battle in the Championship Game

When Duke handed Virginia its first loss of the season on January 31st^, it was one the best games in college basketball to that point. That contest has since been forgotten by many due to Duke’s thrilling overtime victory against UNC in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but that contest will be remembered once these two take part in another memorable game.

These two teams offer up a tantalizing contrast in style. Virginia allows the second-fewest points per possession in the country, while Duke scores the second-most. All eight of Dukes scholarship players were McDonald’s All-Americans. Virginia has zero, and Justin Anderson is the only Virginia player on the team who was a top-50 recruit (he was 49th). Duke stayed with the Cavaliers in the first half of their game by outrunning the pack-line defense and ultimately won the game with an amazing streak of hot shooting in the closing minutes.

If these teams, the top two seeds, make it to the final on Saturday night, March 14, the game should be very similar to the first meeting. Virginia certainly has the defense to hold Duke down, but its slow pace of play will keep it from running away with the game.

Duke has shown that it will score in bunches at some point of every game, and with Winslow’s attacking style and Okafor’s polished moves in the post the Devils don’t need a run of three-point shots to do so. This game should be close until Duke makes one decisive run from which Virginia won’t be able to recover.

Justise Winslow Wins Tournament MVP, Becomes Duke’s Latest Villain

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As mentioned, NC State has no one who can match what Winslow does on the court, but then again, no team really does. When Duke went small and Winslow became the starting power forward, it opened up his driving lanes and allowed him more opportunities to grab defensive rebounds and go coast-to-coast. He has thrived in that role and will continue his stellar play through the tournament.

On his way to the MVP award, Winslow will take the mantle as the latest in a long line of Duke players fans love to hate.

Duke is often one of the most hated teams in the country. Often one player draws most of the hatred from opposing fans. J.J. Redick and Greg Paulus are the best examples from the recent past. Christian Laittner set the standard. No one has drawn the majority of the ire this year, as fans have grown to respect the clutch play of Tyus Jones and the stellar shooting and leadership of Quinn Cook. With more attention focused on the team during the conference tournament, Winslow could boil the blood of Duke haters.

Fans will call him dirty due to some of his antics, especially if he goes so far as to kick one player and trip another as he did against UNC. What will anger them even further is his attitude. After making an impressive play, Winslow has a tendency to pose or get in another player’s face without ever changing his own expression. This will irk many fans, who will continue to hate him more and more as he dominates the tournament. There will be plenty of naysayers as he is named MVP on Saturday night.

It will be a tough three days, but the Blue Devils have what it takes to snatch back the ACC crown and secure themselves a top seed on Selection Sunday.