CBB Teams Most Likely to Burst Bubbles in Conference Tournaments

With the exception of the first Thursday and Friday of the NCAA tournament, there is no time better for college basketball fans than championship week. Every game comes with a chance for a team to get itself one step closer to the game's biggest stage via a conference title and an automatic bid.

But with only 32 conferences to hand out automatic bids, there are 36 spots that need to be filled by the committee's choices. As is the case every year, there are a number of teams who aren’t sure if they will be in the field of 68 next week and will have to sweat it out until Selection Sunday rolls around.

For every team that is on the bubble, though, there is a team that can burst those hopes by pulling an upset in the conference tournaments. This is a list to highlight those schools.

These are teams that will not, no matter how many games they win in their respective conference tournaments, make it to March Madness without the automatic bid given to conference champions.

They are also teams that have the best chance of upsetting teams that at least have a case for an at-large bid and, thus, stand to claim a bid that could go to a team like Indiana or Texas. The best example of a bubble-burster is Belmont, who upset No. 25 Murray State in the Ohio Valley title game and makes it possible for the conference to receive two bids instead of one.

Here are five teams with the best chance to burst bubbles in this week's conference tournaments.

Rhode Island

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The Atlantic 10 has always been a tough conference to label in the grand scheme of college basketball. Not exactly a power conference, but never quite falling to the level of mid-major, the A-10 is always an interesting nut for the committee to crack.

This year, it feels pretty comfortable that at least three teams are locks for tournament bids, with Davidson, Dayton and VCU having built their resumes to a comfortable point entering the conference tournament this week.

Richmond remains a long shot to receive an at-large spot, but the possibility is still there. That isn’t the case for Rhode Island.

Despite finishing third in the conference, the Rams are No. 71 in RPI according to NCAA.com and have no real shot at making it into the field of 68 without a tournament win. Yet with a 13-5 record in the A-10, that is not only possible, but there is also a pretty good chance of it happening.

So far this season Rhode Island has wins against Richmond and George Washington, as well as single-digit losses against VCU and Davidson, and has proved it can keep up with the best teams in the conference. The only team to blow out the Rams in conference play is Dayton, which is a potential semifinal matchup.

But if Rhode Island can get past the Flyers, a title and a tournament spot seem like a good bet.

Connecticut

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The defending national champions haven’t had the strongest of seasons in 2014-15.

As things stand, Connecticut isn’t going to make it to the tournament and will need a title win in the AAC if it is to have a chance to defend its title in March Madness.

But would anybody be surprised if the Huskies did end up making the run and stealing the automatic bid? After surprising national titles in two of the last four seasons, Connecticut has become a team that defies expectations regularly and could very well push a bubble team out of the field in the process.

Although he isn’t exactly Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright has had a great season, with 17.8 points and four assists per game, and has the talent to spark a run. This has also been a Connecticut team that is a few close losses away from being a lock for the field.

An overtime loss to Temple and a season sweep at the hands of Memphis by a total of four points are things that could have gone either way and turned the season around for the Huskies. The squad also has a win against SMU this season and can beat anybody if it gets hot at the right time.

Louisiana Tech

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It is anything but a guarantee, but Old Dominion has a case for an at-large bid for the tournament next week. Wins against VCU, Richmond and LSU in nonconference games are all resume boosters, and despite finishing second in the conference, nobody would be shocked if the Monarchs were in the field without winning Conference USA.

Which is where Louisiana Tech comes in. Winners of the conference regular season, the Bulldogs are a long way from the field because of a number of stumbles on the biggest stages in nonconference play, but they thrived against conference opponents.

Outside of an inexplicable 20-point loss on the road against UAB and a 19-point loss at ODU, the Bulldogs were the best team in the conference and will probably be the favorites in the tournament this week.

Sporting one of the best one-two punches of any mid-major—Raheem Appleby and Alex Hamilton average 15.7 and 15.2 points per game, respectively—Louisiana Tech would be a fun addition to the field of 68, unless, of course, you are the bubble team that misses out on a bid because of the Bulldogs.

UC Santa Barbara

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From here on out, things start to get a bit weaker in terms of at-large prospects.

Despite a 24-5 record, UC Davis will be a stretch to make the tournament, an RPI of 67 will do that to a team, but that won’t mean the teams on the bubble won’t be sweating if the Big West regular-season champ loses in the conference tournament.

Only twice all season has Davis lost in conference play: once on the road against Hawaii, which is a fluke game waiting to happen, and the other to UC Santa Barbara by 14 points.

The Gauchos, who would be one of the favorites for anybody who picks NCAA tournament brackets based on mascot names, have been a sneaky-good team this year and could pull a shock in the Big West tournament.

With close losses to Kansas, SMU and Oregon, not to mention an almost 30-point win against Washington State, the Gauchos are on a five-game winning streak, including victories against Davis and second-place UC Irvine.

All-Big West first-team center Alan Williams has been one of the more productive bigs in the country, averaging 16.8 points and 11.9 boards per game, and could be an anchor for a surprise tournament team.

Sam Houston State

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The Southland Conference isn’t one you would look at as a possible two-bid conference. But with the dominance Stephen F. Austin has shown over the last half-decade, including a 27-4 record this season, there might be no time better than now.

The Lumberjacks (this conference has some great team nicknames, by the way) have a nonconference win against Memphis and an overtime loss against Northern Iowa on their resume, and have a case as one of the last at-large bids on Sunday.

Most likely to challenge Stephen F. Austin in the conference tournament, though, is Sam Houston State. The Bearkats lost to two possible SEC tournament teams by a combined 12 points but were swept in two games against the top seed in the Southland.

However, it is incredibly difficult to beat the same team three times in a season, and with revenge on the mind for Sam Houston—who fell in the conference final to the Lumberjacks last year—it could be a different story this time around.