March Madness Bracket 2015: How You Can Start Winning Your Pool Today
There's no method to the March Madness.
Go ahead. Pore over every scouting report and preview. Or not. What are your favorite colors? Someone definitely has those on their uniforms. Either way is an effective way of grabbing the edge in your office pool and gaining valuable workplace influence in the process.
All right, that's an oversimplification. Knowledge is important. Even self-identified know-nothings usually have the wherewithal to insert a powerhouse or two into their Final Four projections. So while the upsets and uncertainty help make this the world-class sporting event that it is, it's still possible to gird oneself and one's bracket against the inevitable turbulence.
It's also possible—trust me on this—to get way too far down in the weeds, so far that you start convincing yourself that Central Donald Duck State is going to topple the No. 2 seed with the Four Corner Stall. So it's a matter of finding the happy medium of being informed, but not in so deep that you lose sight of the forest.
Here are some tips to help you achieve this happy medium and create a pretty solid bracket for yourself, wherever your friendly competitions may take you.
Some of these tips are general; some apply specifically to this season. No matter your level of college basketball acumen, they can guide you away from preventable mistakes and toward sound decision-making.
Tips are listed in no particular order.
Try to Stay Objective
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It's difficult, especially when an alma mater or civic pride point is involved. And hey, at the end of the day, if you want to pick your fave, go right ahead. This is about enjoying yourself, so if that's the source of your enjoyment in this thing, then by all means go for it.
It's just not the best strategy for winning, that's all. For every George Mason grad who was once rewarded for rolling the dice, there are countless others who followed their hearts straight into the paper shredder.
Just remember: It's nothing personal. And chances are they'll never know you went against them. I won't tell if you won't.
You're Goldilocks; the Teams Are Your Porridge
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You don't want a team that's too hot coming in; after all, maybe they peaked too early.
And you don't want a team that's too cold. Because, you know, they're cold.
You want the group that is ensconced in the creamy middle. Peaking at the right time, as we like to say.
There's a little bit of psychology involved in this one. Virginia, for example, just sustained its first loss in more than a month when it was upset by Louisville. But was it needed motivation for the Cavs, who had been on cruise control for much of the winter?
Elsewhere in the ACC, how about N.C. State, a team that, heading into conference tournament play, had won five of its last six, including road wins at Louisville and North Carolina?
On the other end of the spectrum, Utah has had a great season but appears to be limping into the Big Dance, having lost three of its final five regular-season contests, including a tough season finale at Washington.
Or what about those programs that have relatively poor track records under the bright lights? Maryland, Villanova, Kansas: I'm looking in your general directions.
They may require a little interpretation, but a team's recent performances reveal a lot about its near future.
Geographic Advantages
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As indicated by Joe Lunardi's typically accurate Bracketology projections, the selection committee likes to place teams as close to their home campuses as possible. The higher your seed, the better the chances of this happening to you.
This phenomenon can help swing momentum for those in receipt of said favorable placements. With every game at a technically neutral court, getting placed near your hometown is a very juicy bonus. This is especially important because a truly neutral crowd will throw its weight behind the underdog the moment that team shows any sign of life.
Think of it as a small measure of upset insurance for the big guys who get this treatment, as well as a push in the right direction for upset-minded schools lucky enough to get placed near their campuses or somewhere far from the favorite's home.
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Study the Injury Reports
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There are some injuries out there that could seriously hamper team momentum coming into the Big Dance.
The prime example at the moment is Virginia standout Justin Anderson, who went down Feb. 7 with a broken finger on his shooting hand and recently had an emergency appendectomy.
He hasn't even been ruled out for the ACC tourney, much less the main one. But appendixes aren't the kinds of things you just rub dirt on. Brian Schwartz of the UVA blog, Streaking the Lawn, did some research, though, and it looks like Anderson might be back in the nick of time:
"Players with appendectomies have returned to play in games roughly 10 days after surgery; however, that number is variable, depending on a variety of factors, such as the invasiveness of surgery. By that measure, a return late in the ACC Tourney would be unlikely but possible, while Anderson playing in the NCAA Tournament seems like a good bet.
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As always, we shall see. In the meantime, keep an eye on the conference tournaments. Injuries pop up and flare up at inopportune times. Kenyon Martin never forgets.
Know Your Enemy
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Some people say that great guard play is the key to a deep run in March. Others think it's great defense or an eye-popping rebounding margin. Some pundits swear by great shooting.
The truth is, it can be any or all of these things. It's just a matter of how one team stacks up to the next. If a team has a great frontcourt but surrenders, say, 43 percent shooting beyond the arc, and they get stuck in the first round against, say, Indiana or BYU, the rebounds might not matter as much if the other team's shots are falling.
It's like putting a puzzle together. You have to know what all the pieces look like and how they fit (or don't fit) together on the floor. Don't look for one category of performance and blindly swear by it in all contexts. Instead, look at potential difference-makers that emerge from the dynamic created between two teams. Ignoring the other half of the equation is not how you're going to solve this thing.
Check out RPI
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There are plenty of great resources online that can help you with this task. In five minutes, you're like a data wizard straight out the Sloan conference.
Every fan knows and loves the KenPom.com ratings from analyst Ken Pomeroy. The RPI rating is another good way of going beyond wins and losses to find out how challenging a given schedule was and, by extension, how battle-tested and ready a given team is to face the field of 68.
If numbers never lie, a couple of quick Web checks can lead you to a whole bucket of college basketball truth.
Just Pick Kentucky
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There are years when anything can happen and when any number of programs—powerhouse and otherwise—can make a run at the roses. This is not one of those years.
I realize I'm not exactly crawling out on the most delicate of limbs here. After all, the Kentucky Wildcats are 31-0 heading into the SEC tournament, and they haven't really been seriously threatened. If they take care of business between now and Selection Sunday, they'll be the first team to go wire-to-wire as the regular season's No. 1-ranked team since UNLV did it in 1990-91.
Head coach John Calipari, not known as the humblest of men, said in a Feb. 20 interview with The Courier-Journal's Kyle Tucker that his Wildcats were basically unbeatable if they brought their A-game every night:
"Everybody has their opinions on: 'Here's how you beat them.' Well, I think everybody's tried all that stuff. I think it comes back to: Are you going to catch us where we're not in a fighting mood and you're fighting for 40 minutes and we're not? That's the team that beats us.
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It's hard to argue with him, especially at this late stage of the season. And it's equally hard to mount a real argument for any team besides Big Blue.
I'm Not Kidding...Go with Kentucky
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Virginia is suffocating. Duke is exciting. Arizona is loaded.
But come on, man. Put the pencil down. Don't try to be a hero. Now is not the time for your unique brand of contrarian sports wisdom.
You know Kentucky goes 10 deep, with the second five probably beating most teams by their lonesome. You know their record.
But watching them over the course of months, you see their length, their size, their speed, their unselfishness, their basketball smarts. You see their commitment to defense (third in the nation in points allowed).
You come to understand how and why they dominate those big-boy stat categories, like their plus-7.3 rebounding margin or their opponents' nation-low 35 percent shooting from the field. You see their ultra-clean 1.39 assist-to-turnover ratio, good for 17th nationally.
Despite their embarrassment of individual talent, they play as a unit, and they do so without fear or arrogance.
This is a special group. And you want them at the top of your bracket. You need them at the top of your bracket. Seriously. Don't overthink this one.
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