Formula 1 2015: Complete Season Preview, Predictions and Expert Breakdown
The 2015 Formula One season is finally here. After a long and relatively quiet winter, the Australian Grand Prix marks the return of what we like to call the pinnacle of motorsport.
Mercedes look ahead, but no one can be entirely sure how the season will pan out until we've seen all the cars on the same track, at the same time, doing the same thing. Maybe Williams are quicker than they look, or Red Bull have been hiding their pace.
We can't be sure who is going to end up where, but winter testing has taught us enough to make some educated predictions—so we asked our Formula One team what they think the year ahead will bring.
Read on to find out what they think, and feel free to play along or have your say in the comments section below.
Last year's predictions are here.
Who's Going to Win the Drivers' Championship?
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Oliver Harden: Lewis Hamilton. His second world title in 2014 should be used as a springboard for further success. Although he hasn't had the most ideal pre-season, he should still have enough in hand to beat Nico Rosberg in 2015.
Matthew Walthert: Lewis Hamilton. It will be a two-man race between the two Mercedes drivers again this season. Hamilton proved in 2014 that his race craft is a step above Nico Rosberg's. If Hamilton cleans up some of his qualifying mistakes and has better luck with his reliability, the gap between the two team-mates could be even larger this season.
Alex Livie: It's an obvious one, but Lewis Hamilton will defend his crown thanks to a dominant Mercedes.
Mark Patterson: Lewis Hamilton. Sorry. You might have wanted a more exciting answer. But nothing has changed sufficiently to prevent the better driver in the best car becoming world champion for a third time.
Neil James: Lewis Hamilton. Providing the two Mercedes' have similar levels of reliability, one would expect the Brit to add to his two world titles. But Nico Rosberg proved last year that he can't be written off, and if he can improve his race craft a touch we could be set for a very close race.
Which Driver Will Be Third?
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Matthew Walthert: Valtteri Bottas. This one is a tough call and I waffled between Bottas, Daniel Ricciardo and Sebastian Vettel. Ultimately, I think Williams will continue their strong showing from the second half of last season, and Bottas is a man on the rise. The Mercedes power unit will still be the difference-maker between Williams, Red Bull and Ferrari.
Alex Livie: Third won't satisfy him, but Sebastian Vettel will help move Ferrari forward in 2015.
Mark Patterson: Can you be a dark horse if you're a four-time world champion driving for the sport's most illustrious team? Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel is likely to be the one man on the grid who can unseat Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo from the third place he claimed in 2014.
Neil James: Daniel Ricciardo. It seems Red Bull are a touch behind Williams and Ferrari at the moment, but there's nothing wrong with the RB11 chassis. In-season upgrades could allow Renault to close the gap a little more, and Ricciardo is capable of recovering from a slow start.
Oliver Harden: Valtteri Bottas. If Williams can maintain their status as best of the rest throughout 2015, the Finn's consistency should see him claim third with relative ease.
Who'll Win the Constructors' Championship?
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Alex Livie: A Hamilton title and backed by Nico Rosberg, Mercedes will take the constructors' gong.
Mark Patterson: Mercedes winning the constructors' championship right now seems like the only thing more certain than Hamilton winning the drivers' championship. The car should be more reliable than last year, which was really the only thing that curtailed the margin of victory in 2014.
Neil James: Mercedes. The German team have once again produced a world-beating car, and testing revealed nothing to suggest the rest of the pack can come close. Last season, they finished 296 points clear of second-placed Red Bull; it could be more than 300 in 2015.
Oliver Harden: Mercedes. The best have got better, and if Rosberg and Hamilton can avoid Spa-like shenanigans, you wouldn't bet against them winning every race.
Matthew Walthert: Mercedes. No surprise here. The Silver Arrows confirmed their superiority throughout the pre-season, racking up the mileage while also showcasing their outright speed when it suited them. Red Bull, Ferrari and Williams might close the gap slightly from 2014, but no one will beat Mercedes over a 20-race season. Expect the constructors' title to be wrapped up by the time the F1 circus returns to the western hemisphere at the end of the season.
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Which Team Will be Second?
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Mark Patterson: Ferrari. Vettel's season feels like a defining one, and though he most likely doesn't have the equipment to land a title, he needs a year that reaffirms his place among the elite. I expect him and Ricciardo to fight often during the course of the season and that battle to be close—but the constructors' battle will be settled by Kimi Raikkonen surely not being as off the pace as he was in 2014, and Daniil Kvyat needing a year to adjust to a bigger team.
Neil James: Ferrari. This battle should be very tight—Williams and Red Bull look highly likely to be in the mix come the end of the year, while I'm not entirely comfortable writing off McLaren at this stage. But a reborn Sebastian Vettel and happier Kimi Raikkonen will be enough to edge it for the Scuderia.
Oliver Harden: Ferrari. Bottas won't quite be able to take Williams to second spot on his own, and with Red Bull just starting to go downhill, the all-champion pairing at the Prancing Horse should nab the runner-up place.
Matthew Walthert: Williams. I expected Williams' performance to fall off as the season progressed last year and the teams with larger budgets pushed the development of their cars. Instead, Williams' performance got stronger later in the year. Daniil Kvyat might prove to be a very good driver, but the loss of Sebastian Vettel will hurt Red Bull, allowing Williams to jump them in the standings this year—although Ferrari, the Bulls and maybe Lotus will be close behind.
Alex Livie: There are some positive signs for Ferrari, and they will be the nearest challengers to Mercedes.
Surprise Package of the Year
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Neil James: Toro Rosso. Doomed to spend all of eternity in the midfield, the Baby Bulls aren't going to win races and grab handfuls of podiums. But the STR10 looks like it'll be a very good car once it's all dialled in, and one of their drivers could break the 50-point barrier for the first time in the team's existence.
Oliver Harden: McLaren-Honda. It might look all doom and gloom on the eve of the season, but once the car runs at its optimum, a few visits to the podium should be within their reach.
Matthew Walthert: Lotus. It seems a lifetime ago, but Lotus had 14 podium finishes in 2013. Last year, they had just three top-10 finishes, scoring 10 points. For 2015, a switch from Renault to Mercedes power will propel them back up the grid. They will regularly be in the points and the team will surprise with a couple of champagne celebrations.
Alex Livie: It seems odd to describe a world champion as a surprise package, but Jenson Button will punch above his weight in 2015.
Mark Patterson: Lotus F1 will rise from the ashes of their 2014 campaign. They may not win races, but once you strap a Mercedes into the back of their cars, Romain Grosjean and—yes—even Pastor Maldonado, might suddenly look like different drivers.
Surprise Flop of the Year
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Oliver Harden: Daniil Kvyat. It's an inescapable fact that he would have remained at Toro Rosso for another year if Vettel had stayed at Red Bull. As good as he could become, a promotion to the A-team may have come too soon for the talented Russian.
Matthew Walthert: Toro Rosso: Team principal Franz Tost is aiming for fifth in the constructors' standings this year (up from seventh in 2014), but I think the team will be disappointed. If anything, I could see them falling further down the standings, behind Lotus.
Alex Livie: The noises coming out of Red Bull are not positive, and on that note, I'm going for Daniel Ricciardo to struggle.
Mark Patterson: I expect Williams to fall back a step or two into midfield—but perhaps, given how much of a surprise they were last season, it is unfair to dismiss that as a flop. So Force India are my tip to struggle. They started 2014 brilliantly, lost momentum and have yet to recapture it after some limp pre-season testing.
Neil James: I picked Kimi Raikkonen for this last year. Signs are that he looks set for a better year, so for 2015, I'll take his team-mate, Sebastian Vettel. He won't suffer a pasting from the Finn and in all likelihood will finish ahead in the standings, but it won't be the walkover some are expecting.
King of Qualifying?
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Matthew Walthert: Lewis Hamilton. Entering the 2014 season, Hamilton had 31 career pole positions; his team-mate, Rosberg, had four. Hamilton took pole at four of the first five races of the season, but then a switch flipped and Rosberg took 10 of the final 14, including a controversial one in Monaco. This year, Hamilton will reassert his one-lap dominance, claiming the FIA Pole Trophy (and maybe pretending to care about it).
Alex Livie: Hamilton will dominate in the race, but his team-mate, Rosberg, will be the star on the one-lap shootouts.
Mark Patterson: Nico Rosberg. He has to win something, doesn't he? And his one-lap pace was something of a revelation in 2014.
Neil James: Lewis Hamilton. Nico Rosberg edged it last season, but if we flip his dodgy Monaco pole and void the two sessions Hamilton didn't take a proper part in, they were level. It'll be extremely tight again in 2015, but I can see the reigning champ taking it by a nose.
Oliver Harden: Nico Rosberg. Hamilton may have suffered plenty of problems in qualifying in 2014, but that shouldn't take anything away from just how fast Rosberg was over one lap.
The Next Big Driver Move for 2016
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Alex Livie: Max Verstappen in a Red Bull.
Mark Patterson: 2016 will be less seismic than 2015, and the biggest moves will be the ones out of Formula 1. We will most likely bid farewell to both Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen by the end of the campaign.
Neil James: Valtteri Bottas is at the right stage of his career to move on, but it's difficult to see a place for him at the top teams. I can't imagine him at Ferrari next year, Red Bull don't seem to recruit from the open market and even if McLaren re-emerge as front-runners, they have their own young hotshots. So let's say Mercedes for the latest flying Finn—replacing either a fresh-challenge seeking Lewis Hamilton or a defeated Nico Rosberg.
Oliver Harden: It'll take something special to topple the drama of last year, but let's have a go: Nico Rosberg, beaten for the second year running, leaves Mercedes to replace the retiring Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari, with Valtteri Bottas promoted to Mercedes. Replacing Bottas at Williams? None other than Fernando Alonso, of course.
Matthew Walthert: Valtteri Bottas to Ferrari. Last year in this space, I predicted Nico Hulkenberg to join the Scuderia. That did not happen. If a seat opens up there after this season, and Bottas performs as expected, I think he will jump Hulkenberg on Ferrari's wish list. Of course, if Williams has a better car than Ferrari again in 2015, maybe Bottas would reject a Ferrari offer. In that case, Hulkenberg may end up in red anyway.
Best Driver Signing of 2015
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Mark Patterson: McLaren picking up Fernando Alonso. It won't seem like it in Australia when he isn't there, and it won't feel that way for much of the season when the Woking team flatter to deceive once more in the midfield, but that's the point. Pulling off a deal to bring a remarkable driver back to a team where he had a troubled history when all McLaren currently have to offer is jam tomorrow (if you accept he could have been handsomely paid wherever he goes) was a remarkable achievement.
Neil James: Fernando Alonso. McLaren are going to need a true superstar to drag them out of the mire they currently inhabit, and everyone in the team knows that if they do their job, Alonso is guaranteed to do his. Drivers who bring this certainty are rare and all the more valuable for it.
Oliver Harden: Sebastian Vettel. His impact is already evident and the team will grow around him as the season goes on, justifying the Michael Schumacher comparisons.
Matthew Walthert: Sebastian Vettel. The Fernando Alonso experiment clearly did not work out as planned at Ferrari. With the Spaniard off to McLaren, the Scuderia brought in four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel from Red Bull. The German has already rejuvenated the tifosi and, even if the on-track results are not immediate, this will prove to be a very good long-term decision for Ferrari.
Alex Livie: Vettel can help move Ferrari forward, and his class will help the team in 2015.
Rookie of the Year
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Neil James: Max Verstappen is the only one who truly stands out as a potential star of the future. Carlos Sainz and Felipe Nasr look alright at best, while Will Stevens' record is not impressive at all. Roberto Merhi could go either way—he's got a good record but we don't even know if he'll be in the car all year.
Oliver Harden: Who else but Max Verstappen? The 17-year-old will live up the hype and no doubt take much pleasure from silencing his doubters.
Matthew Walthert: Max Verstappen. Verstappen is a special talent—that much is already apparent. But he has yet to face anywhere near the level of competition he will race against this year in F1. So far, in practice and test sessions, he has not looked out of place and, despite my pessimism about Toro Rosso in general, I think Verstappen will have a special season. It may not include a victory, like Vettel's first full season at Toro Rosso, but he will beat his team-mate (and the other rookies at Sauber and Manor) and cement his future in F1.
Alex Livie: There's a lot of talk about Max Verstappen, and he can live up to the hype in his first season.
Mark Patterson: All eyes will be on Max Verstappen. In a year when the biggest prizes may be settled early on, the stories elsewhere on the grid will matter more. And a 17-year-old rookie who's been compared to Ayrton Senna by Helmut Marko? I can't wait to see what he can do.
Will There Be a First-Time GP Winner?
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Oliver Harden: Bottas might have a chance if he's there to pick up any pieces left by Mercedes, and it would be dangerous to discount Kvyat if Red Bull can remain in the thick of the action.
Matthew Walthert: Yes. Valtteri Bottas keeps getting better, and the next step on his march to championship contention is his first grand prix victory. Like Daniel Ricciardo's breakthrough last year, it will likely come due to reliability problems at Mercedes, but a win is a win. Romain Grosjean is the dark horse candidate in this category. He looked on form for his first win late in 2013, but Lotus produced a dog of a car last season. With a new Mercedes engine, Grosjean may finally get a shot at the top step of the podium.
Alex Livie: No.
Mark Patterson: No. The best chance probably falls to Daniil Kvyat, and I think this could prove a challenging year for the Russian, in spite of his evident talent.
Neil James: My gut feeling tells me no, not with Mercedes so far out ahead. But in the interest of being interesting, Valtteri Bottas. All he'd need is a silly tangle between the two Mercs and he'd have a great chance to record his first win.
Drivers in Their Final Year of F1
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Matthew Walthert: Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button, Pastor Maldonado. Raikkonen and Button are both 35 years old and have hinted at retirement several times. After disappointing 2014 seasons for both drivers, another down season could push either of them over the edge. As for Maldonado, well, the Venezuelan economy is in shambles and the PDVSA well will run dry at some point. And then there's all those crashes...
Alex Livie: This could be the final throw of the dice for Kimi Raikkonen.
Mark Patterson: Raikkonen and Button have to do something remarkable not to be exiting the sport. A nondescript year for Felipe Massa could see him join them. Beyond that, expect that annual shuffle at the back, as one set of sponsor's money trumps another's.
Neil James: There'll be a few. Whoever backs Marcus Ericsson will realise they're investing in the F1 equivalent of the Darien Scheme and pull the plug, Will Stevens likewise. Roberto Merhi doesn't currently have long-term backing, and it's hard to see him getting it. We may also bid goodbye to Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen—I'd give each a 50/50 chance of lining up in 2016.
Oliver Harden: Nico Hulkenberg will be the unfortunate victim of Force India's mounting financial concerns, while Carlos Sainz Jr. will be blown out of Toro Rosso. Marcus Ericsson will also disappear if Sauber have any ambition.
Grand Prix of the Season
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Alex Livie: A mixture of sunshine and showers will make for a hugely exciting day out at Silverstone, which will see Hamilton fend off a host of challengers.
Mark Patterson: The Austrian GP was a hit in its debut year last season. It will justify its presence on the calendar again this year. Hopefully the big crowds will come out again to support it, and in the event of a Red Bull winner, it could be one of the moments of the season.
Neil James: Russia. I'm almost pointing and laughing at myself writing this, but anything would be better than last year's dreary affair and Sochi averages 15 rainy days in October. Take changeable conditions, add in a better tyre choice and it could be quite good fun.
Oliver Harden: Mexico, the latest venue on the calendar and one that could rival the finest tracks on the schedule in terms of atmosphere.
Matthew Walthert: Mexican GP. This year, F1 will return to Mexico for the first time since 1992. The circuit has been rebuilt and the fans should turn out in force. As the third-last race of the season, the title fight will (hopefully) still be alive, and we could see fireworks at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
Something F1 Will Prove in 2015?
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Mark Patterson: That somehow, somehow, the sport will manage without awarding double points in the final race. Frankly, it was incredible that it ever happened, and the fact that it disappeared within a year tells its own story.
Neil James: That the short-termist, profit-chasing, smash-and-grab management of the sport by Bernie Ecclestone, his political allies and money-grubbing fellow commercial rights holders is going to destroy F1 as we know and love it.
Oliver Harden: Everything's not as bad as it seems. Despite the brilliant season that was 2014, there was plenty of misery in and around the paddock. It's time for F1 start promoting all that's good about the sport.
Matthew Walthert: Bernie Ecclestone's plan to embrace new markets at the expense of traditional ones is seriously hurting F1. There are four car companies manufacturing engines in F1 and, this year, two of them may be without a home grand prix. The French Grand Prix is long gone and the German Grand Prix is in serious jeopardy. Aside from being the homes of Renault and Mercedes, those countries are two of the largest economies in the world. Can F1 afford to ignore them?
Alex Livie: That Mercedes are once again head and shoulders above their rivals.
A Bold Prediction for the Season
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Neil James: Renault will buy Force India or Lotus and begin plans to re-launch as a constructor in 2016 or 2017.
Oliver Harden: A number of outfits will not live to see the end of the season and the worst nightmare, three-car teams, will be confirmed as a reality from 2016.
Matthew Walthert: Nico Hulkenberg will finally score his first podium finish. Force India are behind in their development after running their 2015 car for only two-and-a-half days of preseason testing, but the car was impressively reliable over those couple days. The team does not have the budget to compete regularly with the big teams, but they do have Mercedes engines. And Hulkenberg is simply too good for this not to happen eventually.
Alex Livie: Jenson Button will win a race in 2015.
Mark Patterson: The struggles of backmarkers to continue on, and the sport will see three-car teams get the green light at some stage during the season—and for us all to spend hours, days and weeks arguing about whether it's a good idea.
That's all, folks. We'll look back after the season ends to see how well each of us did.
You can find us all on Twitter, where we post a variety of interesting and not-so-interesting comments, views, article updates and whatever else takes our fancy.
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