UFC 185: Early Predictions for Pettis vs. Dos Anjos Main Event
At UFC 185, Anthony Pettis looks to take another step closer to being one of the best lightweight champions of all time.
That may seem like hyperbole, but there's truth to it. The championship belt has proven tricky to hold onto for titleholders in the 155-pound division. Before Showtime's reign, Benson Henderson, Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn were only able to defend the strap three times before giving way to their successor.
With an impressive submission victory over Gilbert Melendez already in tow for Showtime, Rafael dos Anjos will be the second opponent to try and pry the title from the champion's hands.
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So what kind of challenges does the 30-year-old Brazilian present to the champion? Here's a look at the matchup along with the latest odds and a prediction for the main event.
| 18-2 | Record | 23-7 |
| 5'10" | Height | 5'8" |
| 155 | Weight | 155 |
| 72" | Reach | 70" |
| 7 | KO/TKO | 4 |
| 8 | Sub. | 8 |
| 3 | Dec. | 11 |
| -400 | Odds | +330 |
When: Saturday, March 14
Start Time: Fight Pass prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 prelims at 8 p.m. ET; main card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Live Stream: UFC.tv
Fight Preview
As far as title contenders go, Dos Anjos isn't the flashiest. There isn't a whole lot of hype surrounding this title defense, and one has to wonder if that's partly because Dos Anjos isn't all that marketable.
The 30-year-old is a recognizable name. He's fought 17 times in the UFC since 2009, yet he's been a headliner exactly one time. He will now fight for a championship.
But just because Dos Anjos lacks the sizzle doesn't mean he doesn't bring the substance. He is 8-1 in his last nine fights and compares with Pettis statistically, per FightMetric:
| 2.16 | Strikes Landed/Min. | 2.88 |
| 44% | Striking Accuracy | 39% |
| 1.60 | Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 2.39 |
| 64% | Defense | 69% |
| 1.35 | Takedowns/15 Min. | 2.30 |
| 76% | Takedown Accuracy | 38% |
| 69% | Takedown Defense | 64% |
| 9:15 | Average Fight Time | 11:31 |
Looking at those statistics, two things jump out. First, neither fighter sets a high work rate with his strikes landed per minute. When Johny Hendricks and Matt Brown square off earlier in the night, they'll bring 7.72 significant strikes per minute between the two of them. That's almost double the production of Showtime and RDA.
However, that hasn't kept Pettis from ending fights with his striking. Seven of his 20 career wins have come by way of knockout or TKO, which includes victories over Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon.
Dos Anjos recently broke into the knockout game too, though. He earned this shot largely thanks to knockouts of Jason High and Benson Henderson before beating Nate Diaz via decision.
Taking the fight to the mat tends to be a part of the RDA game plan. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner might not have a high success rate when it comes to takedowns, but he took High, Diaz and Cerrone down multiple times as he looked to wear them out.
Given the explosiveness of Pettis, whether RDA can employ that strategy against the champion will be key.
Prediction
When looking at the buildup to a bout, it's tough to glean much from what fighters say before the fight. But every now and then, what fighters say can be rather telling.
For instance, in talking with Joe Rogan at UFC 184, Dos Anjos alluded to avoiding a game plan that focuses on wrestling or jiu-jitsu.
"I think Melendez, in my opinion, tried to do the wrong thing," said Dos Anjos. "I'm not looking to try and grab him, to try a wrestling game at all. I'm not a wrestler, I'm not a jiu-jitsu fighter. Jiu-jitsu is my background, but I'm an MMA fighter. I'm going to finish, I'm going to put the pressure on."
If this is truly going to be his game plan, it's going to be a long night for the challenger. Dos Anjos has recently showcased power that we haven't previously seen from him on the feet, but standing and striking with the champion is not a recipe for success.
The bottom line is that Pettis is a much more diverse striker. His ability to mix in kicks and unorthodox angles into his combinations gives him the edge in a kickboxing match. Should RDA wisen up and look to take Pettis down, he'll have to make sure he doesn't fall into the same snare that Henderson and Melendez did when they were submitted.
There are simply too many ways for Pettis to win this one to pick against him.
Pettis via third-round (T)KO.
All bout and card information via UFC.com. All statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.
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