NFL Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft Predictions with Free Agency Underway

If there was ever any doubt about the power of the NFL, just look at what's happening right now. Free agency has consumed the sports world, as signings are happening fast and furious, which adds to the ripple effect of what will come in the draft. 

Oh, there's also the rash of surprising trades creating havoc on what to expect from teams in April. Even though it's trendy to win headlines right now by making a big move, the most effective way to build a roster is through the draft. The incoming players cost a fraction of what a top-tier free agent will. 

The good news is teams will have more than six weeks after the start of free agency to set up their draft boards. One thing that should not change, regardless of what happens with signings, is getting the best player available instead of reaching to fill a need. 

Whatever ends up happening starting on April 30 will be determined soon, but here's how things are currently shaping up based on what's going on right now. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
9	New York Giants	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
10	St. Louis Rams	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
11	Minnesota Vikings	Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
13	New Orleans Saints	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
16	Houston Texans	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
17	San Diego Chargers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
26	Baltimore Ravens	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
27	Dallas Cowboys	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
28	Denver Broncos	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle Seahawks)	Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
32	New England Patriots	Landon Collins, S, Alabama

The Key FA Movers

When you look at the teams that control the league during free agency and the draft, look at who has the most money to play with and an early draft pick. 

In that regard, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders should have been clear standouts. They pick back to back in the draft at No. 3 and No. 4, having virtually free rein over whom they can add with the likely exception of the top quarterback (Jameis Winston) and top defensive lineman (Leonard Williams). 

As far as available money to spend, these two struggling franchises are flush with cash. According to Over The Cap, the Jaguars ($68.5 million) and Raiders ($66.6 million) are first and second in cap space. 

For the Raiders, their offseason was shaping up to be fascinating. They have been linked to virtually all of the top free agents and appear to have strong foundational pieces like Khalil Mack, Derek Carr and Sio Moore.

However, with the exception of some minor moves, the Raiders have been quiet. It wasn't for lack of trying, as Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported the team had serious interest in Randall Cobb before he decided to return to Green Bay. 

Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated wrote in February that there are two obvious directions for the Raiders to seek an upgrade:

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Where will Oakland start? Wide receiver is the obvious answer, with the Raiders holding the No. 4 pick in the draft and the three teams sitting ahead of them likely to be looking at other positions. The defensive line is also begging for youthful upgrades—McKenzie spent last off-season bringing in veterans like LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith and Justin Tuck up front.

"

Based on the mock draft, wide receiver seems like a safe bet for Oakland to tackle, with Kevin White and Amari Cooper likely to be available. Losing Cobb did throw the Raiders' offseason out of balance, as he would have been a perfect player for Carr to work with. 

With the defensive line still needing an upgrade for the Raiders, options like Randy Gregory, Dante Fowler and Vic Beasley would make attractive alternatives to the wide receiver if that's how they want to go. 

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

The Jaguars really don't have anything to build around. It's unfair to sell Blake Bortles already, despite having 17 interceptions and 11 touchdowns as a rookie, because the lack of playmakers on the outside and a porous offensive line didn't give him a chance to succeed. 

As noted by Mike DiRocco of ESPN, there's every reason to expect a very different Jaguars team on the field in 2015:

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The Jaguars have the most projected cap space (approximately $65 million) of any team, but GM David Caldwell has said that doesn't mean the team will spend indiscriminately. The past two seasons the Jaguars have mostly targeted mid-level players, though they did sign center Alex Mack to an offer sheet the Cleveland Browns matched. Caldwell said the rebuilding plan was to be more assertive in Year 3.

"

Like the Raiders, per that report from McGinn, the Jaguars wanted to make a play for Cobb. They were more aggressive than Oakland in committing $59 million in guaranteed money to Julius Thomas, Jermey Parnell and Jared Odrick. 

The Jaguars have been trying to build something since David Caldwell and Gus Bradley came on board in 2013. Now is when the time comes to use that cap space to add talent and take the high-ceiling potential superstar with the No. 3 pick. 

Another team that was very aggressive early in free agency was the New York Jets, who made the biggest splash by bringing Darrelle Revis back for five years with $39 million guaranteed. They also went all-in on former Cleveland cornerback Buster Skrine, giving him $13 million guaranteed over four years. 

The big question for the Jets is the future at quarterback. They acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick in a trade with Houston, but that doesn't solve the long-term issue. Marcus Mariota, if he remains available at No. 6, immediately becomes the logical fit. 

Free agency hasn't drastically changed the draft yet, though a lot can happen in the next six weeks. 

The Philadelphia Story

No team did more to begin the reshaping of its roster before free agency than the Philadelphia Eagles. LeSean McCoy was officially traded to Buffalo for Kiko Alonso on March 10. 

The Eagles also released Cary Williams and Trent Cole, leaving no doubt that Chip Kelly was taking this franchise in a completely different direction. All three of those moves helped give Philadelphia nearly $40 million in cap space (h/t Over The Cap). 

As far as how this pertains to the draft, it's no secret that Kelly is loading his roster with players who understand his system from Oregon. Kelly took over as head coach of the Ducks in 2009 when Alonso made his playing debut after redshirting the previous year. 

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

The Eagles seemed to be in the market for a quarterback, with Mariota making sense simply because of the Oregon connection, but that theory blew up when Sam Bradford was acquired for Nick Foles. 

Still, Bradford's inability to stay healthy makes one curious about what exactly Kelly thinks he is getting in 2015. 

There had been speculation that Kelly is plotting a way to move up for Mariota. Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer said in a radio interview that the Eagles coach will go above and beyond to get the 2014 Heisman winner (h/t Larry Brown of Larry Brown Sports):

"

Unless I’m missing something here, if Marcus Mariota is available, the Eagles are going to do whatever it takes to get him.

I don’t think it’s any secret that Chip Kelly loves Mariota. He’s equated him to Peyton Manning. So he wants Marcus Mariota. What we don’t know if he thinks Marcus is worth what he thinks it will take to move up to go get him. They’re going to make a real strong effort to go up and get him.

"

However, Kelly said to reporters after acquiring Bradford that they would "never mortgage our future" to give up what it would presumably take to draft Mariota. Given all the moves he's made thus far, it's probably best not to take him at his word in mid-March. 

One piece of the puzzle that came in the most roundabout way possible was the addition of DeMarco Murray. He clearly fills the void left from the McCoy deal, but it all started when Frank Gore decided he didn't want to play in Philadelphia. 

It's amazing the ripple effect Gore's decision had, as Murray wouldn't have gone to Philadelphia as a result and Indianapolis wouldn't have gotten Gore. The Cowboys may have been able to retain Murray at their price, instead of having to negotiate against the Eagles. 

Whether you agree with everything Kelly and the Eagles have done so far or not, there's no denying they are as compelling a story to watch in the NFL right now. 

The Eagles have tried to address their secondary through free agency, which needed help after letting Williams go and allowing the second-most passing yards in 2014, by signing Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond in separate deals. 

Maxwell's deal is puzzling because he's being paid like a star ($25 million guaranteed over six years), yet he had the luxury of playing alongside Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas in Seattle. Kelly may know more than us, but this contract feels a lot like the Nnamdi Asomugha deal that blew up in a hurry. 

Kelly was at least able to find two cornerbacks capable of starting, though it wouldn't hurt the Eagles to look in that direction during the draft. Marcus Peters has a world of talent and would fit nicely on the opposite side of Maxwell, which would allow Thurmond to play in the slot. 

At this point, though, it's best not to guess what Kelly will attempt to do next. 

The Draft Enigma

Teams drafting are forced to balance how much talent a player possesses with his history off the field. For a lot of these draftees, that's not an issue. 

The big question mark in this class is wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. The troubled playmaker didn't play in 2014 after transferring to Oklahoma from Missouri, which dismissed him following numerous off-field transgressions. 

So here is a player in Green-Beckham who hasn't played in an actual game since January 3, 2014 against Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl with significant baggage off the field. 

Green-Beckham had 87 receptions for 1,278 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Tigers. He's 6'5" and 237 pounds with all the talent in the world in a draft with numerous teams seeking help at wide receiver. 

Bucky Brooks of NFL.com wrote that Green-Beckham physically looks like a true No. 1 wide receiver:

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He effortlessly snatches the ball out of the air and routinely wins 50-50 balls with defenders in close proximity. In addition, Green-Beckham shows sneaky running skills with the ball in his hands. He displays rare elusiveness for a big-bodied receiver, which helps him pick up extra yardage after making short and intermediate catches over the middle. When focused and engaged, Green-Beckham can be the most dominant player on the field; defenses have trouble containing him when he brings his A-game.

"

The on-field criticisms Brooks lists are lack of focus, inconsistent route-running ability and limited physicality. This leaves open the very real possibility that Green-Beckham won't be drafted until Round 2, at the earliest. 

Some mocks have put Green-Beckham in the first round, like Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, who had him going to Baltimore at No. 26:

"Arguably the most gifted player in the entire draft, Green-Beckham is worth the risk at some point in the first round, and the Ravens could see him as more of a reward at this pick," Brugler wrote. 

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

If Green-Beckham is going to go in the first round, which is questionable at this moment, his ceiling likely starts with San Francisco at No. 15. The Chiefs are desperately seeking wideout help after not having a receiver catch a touchdown last year. 

The Ravens do need help at receiver with Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones finding new homes this offseason. 

If it were as simple as looking at Green-Beckham's explosive talent, he would easily go in the first 32 picks. Instead, everything that happened during his time at Missouri could make him untouchable until at least Round 2.