Grading the Top Big-Men Prospects in the 2015 NBA Draft Class
NBA teams looking for a big man in the 2015 draft are licking their chops, because this year's crop includes a half-dozen intriguing towers.
Their size can change the game on defense, and many of them also have promising offensive skills. The rare mix of length and talent is enticing.
Some of this year's top post players have well-defined skill sets and are NBA-ready in several areas. Others are in the earlier stages of development and are more enigmatic.
To get a better picture of each prospect's specific talents, we graded their proficiency in a bunch of key frontcourt categories. We broke down all the top-tier big men (6'10" or taller) who are widely projected to land in the lottery.
Our assessments are based on a combination of statistical production and skills they've exhibited on film. Each grade is meant to reflect how capable the player is right now, not how successful he could be down the road.
Prospects are listed in ascending order of projected draft value, not their grades.
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin C (7'0", Senior)
1 of 6
Back-to-basket: A
Face-up: B+
Jump shooting/free throws: A+
Rebounding: B
Rim protection: B+
Passing: A
Transition mobility: B
Seven-footers with Frank Kaminsky's level of finesse are exceptionally rare. The Wisconsin big man has been putting on a clinic for aspiring stretch-big college players this season, and his player efficiency rating of 35.6 leads the country.
His shooting range goes well beyond the college arc, and he's hitting 42 percent of his triples this season. His fluid delivery is even deadlier from mid-range, where he's converting 49 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. Kaminsky is going to be a superb pick-and-pop threat in the NBA.
The offensive talents don't stop there.
"I just think he does it in so many different ways," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo told The Associated Press. "He's become a better passer, he's become a guy that just has a knack for drawing the defense, and he's a hard cover."
Interior defense and rebounding aren't his strongest suits because he's not as muscle-bound or explosive as most centers. However, he's learned how to provide positionally sound stoppage during his time in Madison, and he uses his length to bother scorers without fouling (just 2.0 fouls per 40 minutes).
Myles Turner, Texas C (6'11", Freshman)
2 of 6
Back-to-basket: B
Face-up: B
Jump shooting/free throws: A
Rebounding: B+
Rim protection: A+
Passing: B
Transition mobility: C+
In some areas, Myles Turner is an alluring prospect. In others, he's quite underwhelming.
Texas' big fella hasn't consistently hit the three-ball this season, but he's been money on long two-pointers and mid-range tries. He owns a confident, soft shooting stroke that will undoubtedly be valuable in pick-and-pop scenarios in the NBA.
Turner's other attractive contribution is shot-blocking, which is fueled by his 7'4" wingspan, great timing and commitment to protecting the paint. He's rejecting 4.9 shots per 40 minutes. Even though he won't rack up as many blocks in the NBA, he'll still bother a lot of attackers with his length.
His biggest deficiencies right now are his lack of explosiveness and inability to dominate the paint on offense. Less than a quarter (24.8 percent) of his shots are at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com, and he knows he must assert himself near the bucket more.
"I need to get more physical in the paint, make my presence known on the block a little bit more," he told ESPN.com's Myron Medcalf. "Watching film, I have the tendency just to float around the perimeter sometimes."
The reason Turner doesn't earn an A-range mark in rebounding is because he averages just 1.3 offensive boards per game. If he can become a (literally) stronger post player, that will help compensate for his unimpressive agility.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)
3 of 6
Back-to-basket: C
Face-up: B
Jump shooting/free throws: C
Rebounding: A-
Rim protection: A+
Passing: B
Transition mobility: A+
At this juncture in his college career, there's not much Willie Cauley-Stein can do to convince NBA scouts he can generate offense.
The vast majority of his buckets come from quick face-ups, putbacks and alley-oops. In short, he'll likely never be the type of big man you can throw it to and let him operate on the block.
That's OK, because his rim protection and end-to-end mobility are elite. He can run, change directions and jump like a guard, and then his 7-foot frame can challenge anyone vertically. Cauley-Stein is a huge reason Kentucky has a menacing defense, and his career defensive rating of 87.6 is tops in SEC history.
He's not a carbon copy of Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler, but they're quite similar across the board.
Cauley-Stein is the type of big man who's agile enough to cover acres of space on defense, thrive in transition and finish above the rim on pick-and-rolls and lobs. He won't be a featured star of his NBA squad, but he has the tools and motor to eventually become a top-tier starter and key role player.
Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia PF (7'0", 1995)
4 of 6
Back-to-basket: B
Face-up: B+
Jump shooting/free throws: A
Rebounding: C+
Rim protection: B+
Passing: C+
Transition mobility: A
Will Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis be the next best thing to Dirk Nowitzki, or will he be more like the disappointing Andrea Bargnani? Scouts, fans and media alike are wondering how Europe's up-and-coming stretch 4 will translate.
We're never going to know until he actually starts competing in the NBA, but he'll likely land somewhere in between those two extremes.
Porzingis' towering height and silky-smooth shooting are an irresistible combo, which is why he's a top-10 lock at this point. He can get his shot off against any defender, and his NBA coach will be able to use him in a variety of sets.
He also has a decent face-up game and can make some back-to-the-basket shots from the mid-post. As he adds bulk to his frame, he'll be a better low-post threat.
With only 8.3 rebounds per 40 minutes between ACB and Eurocup play, per Real GM, he's not highly productive on the glass. However, he seems willing to make the energy plays, outrun his opponent from end to end and protect the rim.
Karl Towns, Kentucky PF/C (6'11", Freshman)
5 of 6
Back-to-basket: A-
Face-up: A-
Jump shooting/free throws: A-
Rebounding: A
Rim protection: A
Passing: A-
Transition mobility: A-
Since our grades are based more on what players can do right now, Karl Towns doesn't earn an A or A-plus in the low-post offense categories. But considering he's a freshman, an A-minus is promising, and his development suggests he'll be a prolific scorer in the paint.
Why doesn't he have an A-plus in rim protection, especially with such an outstanding block rate (4.4 per 40 minutes) and block percentage (12.1)? He fouls too frequently, tallying 5.7 hacks per 40 minutes because he's late from the weak side or bites on pump fakes.
Once he becomes more disciplined, however, he's going to be a fearsome shot-swatter every night in the Association.
His three-point shooting has been encouraging this season, but the efficiency has been spotty. Fortunately, he's hitting his two-point jumpers at a 44 percent clip, per Hoop-Math.com, and his fluid mechanics easily pass the eye test.
Aside from the rash of fouls, Towns doesn't have any glaring deficiencies. The fact that he earned at least an A-minus in every category is a testament to his versatility and attractiveness as a prospect. Towns is the type of player who can take over games in the post, gobble up rebounds athletically, protect the paint and collaborate seamlessly with teammates.
Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)
6 of 6
Back-to-basket: A+
Face-up: A
Jump shooting/free throws: C
Rebounding: B+
Rim protection: C+
Passing: B+
Transition mobility: B
The A-range marks in back-to-the-basket and face-up offense shouldn't be surprise anyone.
Jahlil Okafor has been demolishing Duke's opponents in the paint, and there's a lot of Tim Duncan and Al Jefferson to his game. His post moves and scoring skills aren't predicated on athleticism but rather supreme footwork and shooting touch to go along with his length.
In recent weeks, his defensive struggles have been well-documented among scouts and draft analysts. His troubles aren't limited to containing slashers or pick-and-rolls; Okafor is also a middle-tier rim protector, blocking just 1.8 shots per 40 minutes.
While he could do a better job of consistently cleaning up the defensive glass, Okafor is a talented offensive rebounder with terrific timing. His O-board percentage is second in the ACC (16.5).
Despite his limited mid-range shooting and shaky free throws, you can see why he's still the favorite to go No. 1. He can dominate the low block, rebound and handle double-teams as a passer.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from Sports-Reference.com/CBB and are current entering March 6.
Follow Dan O'Brien on Twitter for more NBA Draft coverage: @DanielO_BR
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