Projecting the Immediate Impact of Each Top 2015 NBA Draft Prospect

It's getting tougher for top prospects to make an immediate impact as NBA rookies. Andrew Wiggins is the only one in 2015 averaging double figures in scoring. 

With the league getting deeper and the talent growing stronger, there are only so many openings for 19-21-year-old kids. 

However, we're looking at a handful of pretty spectacular young prospects this year. The 2016 Rookie of the Year race should ultimately be a good one.

We went ahead and took the top prospects expected to declare for this year's draft and projected their roles, minutes, stats and impact. Considering we don't know which team each player will wind up on, we created ranges (for example, 18-22 minutes, 12-14 points, 6-8 rebounds) to account for the possibility of good and poor team fits.

If there was a top prospect you feel didn't make the cut, chances are it's because we don't anticipate him making much of an impact as a rookie.

Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Starting center

Projected Stats: 25-30 minutes, 12-14 points, 6-8 rebounds, 1 block, 50-55 percent shooting

Rookie of the Year Odds: 50 percent 

With one of the more skilled, polished post games we've seen from a teenage prospect, Jahlil Okafor should have something to offer as a 2015-16 rookie. 

At 6'11", 270 pounds, he already has a body built for the NBA's interior, as well as an array of moves to go to and counters he can improvise with on the fly. 

Unlike most rookies who typically play secondary roles, Okafor projects as one who coaches could feature or draw plays up for in the half court. 

However, don't count on Okafor to shoot 66.5 percent like he is at Duke. There just isn't anyone at the college level capable of matching up physically. There will be in the pros.

Plus, Okafor's lack of explosiveness could make it tougher to finish against longer, better athletes. And his inability to threaten the defense outside the paint might limit his scoring opportunities. 

Having struggled in pick-and-roll coverage and shown poor instincts in rim protection, chances are Okafor's defense will quickly become a topic of conversation as well. 

But with those giant hands, terrific feet and enormous frame, he's going to put up points and pull down rebounds no matter what.

I wouldn't expect him to start dominating until his third year in the league, but I will bet on him starting next season and playing a significant offensive role. If he lands in a spot where there are enough touches to go around, he'd have to be the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year.

Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", PG, 1996

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Immediate Role: Starting point guard 

Projected Stats: 27-32 minutes, 13-15 points, 5-6 assists, 4-5 rebounds, 40-45 percent shooting, 28 percent from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 45 percent 

Having spent the year abroad, Emmanuel Mudiay received some valuable experience playing against international pros and former NBA picks. And he didn't just blend in. When healthy, which he was for just 12 games, Mudiay averaged 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists.

Assuming he lands on a team with an opening at point guard, you'd like to imagine he'll start from his first day on the job. And at 6'5" with a 6'8" wingspan and next-level athleticism, Mudiay could potentially be a tough cover for opposing ball-handlers right off the bat. 

"This kid [Mudiay] I said [when he was] in high school I thought he could start on half the NBA teams, and I don't doubt that," said SMU coach Larry Brown, who Mudiay originally committed to playing for, via Philly.com's Marc Narducci. 

He has a strong feel out of pick-and-rolls, an obvious plus for an incoming point guard. And teammates are bound to support his pass-first mentality. Despite his ability to take over stretches as a scorer, he's more than willing to set the table and get others involved first. 

Just don't expect Mudiay to be overly efficient early on. He isn't an accurate shooter, having made only 34.2 percent of his threes and 57.4 percent of his free throws in China. And that's likely to keep his field-goal clip in that low 40 percent range. 

He also struggles with ball security and decision-making. Mudiay turned it over 3.3 times per game overseas and remains vulnerable to losing control, taking an off-balance shot or forcing the issue.

However, with enough freedom, Mudiay is undoubtedly going to put up numbers, particularly in the assist category where he's practically a lock to lead all rookies. Unless he's drafted to a funky situation, Mudiay is likely Jahlil Okafor's biggest challenger for Rookie of the Year.

D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Starting guard

Projected Stats: 25-30 minutes, 12-14 points, 4-6 assists, 4-5 rebounds, 43-45 percent shooting, 35 percent shooting from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 40 percent 

D'Angelo Russell's versatility, specifically the ability to play both backcourt positions, will give him a strong shot to find a starting rookie role. Chances are whoever drafts him will either have a hole at the 1 or the 2. 

But it's his advanced skills and feel for the game that will allow him to produce. 

Russell is a terrific passer and a dangerous scorer off the dribble, which should translate to offensive firepower from the point guard slot. 

And at 6'5" with a 43.2 percent three-point stroke, Russell has the size and skill set to also slide off the ball.

I'd say he has the best chance of all the projected rookies of at going off for a 30-point night.

He isn't explosive or overly strong. Odds are Russell struggles at first around the basket. He also relies on taking tough shots, and over an 82-game stretch, it wouldn't be surprising if his field-goal percentage dipped into the low 40s. 

But having registered a 29.7 percent usage rate and shouldered a monster workload at Ohio State, Russell should have the confidence to handle the rock from opening night. 

I suspect he'll be right in the middle of the 2016 Rookie of the Year race.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Bench big man

Projected Stats: 18-22 minutes, 8-10 points, 6-8 rebounds, 1-2 blocks, 46-50 percent shooting

Rookie of the Year Odds: 25 percent

Terrific physical tools and athleticism to match some unique inside-out versatility arguably give Karl-Anthony Towns as high an upside as anyone's in this year's field. 

But he isn't going to be a short-term solution for any NBA team—especially if he lands on one that doesn't offer much talent to play off. 

Towns is raw and still fairly unpolished. He's had trouble just staying on the floor, averaging 5.7 personal fouls per 40 minutes. And the whistle will only get tougher to avoid as he moves from defending college centers to quicker NBA 4's and bigger, stronger 5's. 

Chances are his offensive game takes some time as well. He just hasn't received enough reps or touches for Kentucky, having attempted 10 or more shots in a game only four times all year.

Towns' footwork and delivery still lack fluidity in the post, and though he's flashed promise as a shooter, he hasn't exactly had the green light to let shots fly. 

NBA coaches will still value his physical presence at both ends of the floor. Towns' size and length alone should translate to putbacks off misses and rim protection. Just don't expect him to have his way as a rookie like he did against Georgia Tuesday night, when he scored 17 second-half points against a couple of 6'8" forwards and centers. 

Before becoming a potential All-Star-caliber big man, he's going to need a few years to iron out some wrinkles and ultimately build up his confidence and basketball IQ. 

Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6'7", SF, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Bench scorer/defender 

Projected Stats: 18-22 minutes, 7-9 points, 4-5 rebounds, 1-2 assists, 40-45 percent shooting, 30 percent from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 20 percent

At 6'7", 245 pounds, Stanley Johnson, who's no stiff athletically, has the physical tools to hold his own in an NBA game tomorrow. He's got 46 pounds on a kid like Andrew Wiggins, who plays the same position. 

Johnson has put up some big numbers at Arizona—14.1 points and 6.8 boards for the No. 5 school in the country.

He ultimately operates with a ton of confidence, something that should bode well for his transition from college to the NBA. "I feel like confidence is one of the things you can control," Johnson told ESPN's Myron Medcalf. "And I've talked to a lot of pros, and they say if you're confident, that's half the battle."

He isn't afraid of contact, averaging 7.7 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes, and he's pretty effective with the floater and pull-up (46.1 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com)—important shots to have in the arsenal moving forward. 

However, Johnson's declining three-point percentage, which should have been expected, as well as his struggles as a finisher—a surprise—are both likely to lead to rookie inefficiency.

Johnson is making just 52.2 percent of his shots at the rim, where he's only converted 23 buckets all year (29 games) in the half court. And the protection around the basket only gets tighter in the pros. 

Long-range shooting wasn't considered one of Johnson's strengths out of high school, and though he got off to a hot start, he's now missed 21 of his last 27 attempts from downtown. 

On the other hand, Johnson has the quickness, strength and length to guard both wing positions, and that's something NBA coaches may value right away. Minutes should be there for him as a rookie, and if there are enough, odds are his mid-range and attack games translate to offensive production, even if it's inconsistently put up.

Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995

Immediate Role: Bench scorer/shooter

Projected Stats: 7-9 points, 2-3 rebounds, 1-2 assists, 43-46 percent shooting, 35 percent from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 15 percent

It's still up in the air as to whether Mario Hezonja will even declare, let alone come right over for the 2015-16 NBA season. 

But if he does, you get the sense he might actually be more prepared than most other rookies. 

He already has an NBA body with world-class athletic ability and mismatch physical tools for the 2-guard or small forward position. And quite frankly, the role he's playing now in Barcelona should be fairly similar to the one he plays here. 

As a 20-year-old kid among pros overseas, Hezonja spends a good amount of time operating off the ball, whether he's spotting up or running through screens. Shooting 42.1 percent from downtown, he has deep range and unbreakable confidence from outside. 

Even with limited touches, which you'd imagine he'd get as a rookie, Hezonja's shot-making skills and size could translate to buckets right away. 

And if he's lucky, he'll land on a team that likes to run. Hezonja is automatic in the open floor, where his long strides, body control and explosiveness result in easy points. 

Of course, there are ultimately a ton of ifs when it comes to predicting Hezonja's outlook—if he declares, if he comes over, if he lands in the right place. But outside of Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, he'll have just as good of a chance as anyone to find his way into a rotation. 

Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Junior

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Immediate Role: Bench big man/starting center (depending on team)

Projected Stats: 15-17 minutes, 4-6 points, 4-6 rebounds, 1-2 blocks, 55 percent shooting

Rookie of the Year Odds: 15 percent

Despite lacking polished footwork or ball skills, Willie Cauley-Stein could actually carve out a regular rookie role. 

However, team fit should ultimately factor into his early impact. Without the ability to create, Cauley-Stein needs to land in a place where he can play to his strengths. The more talent that's around him, the more effective he's likely to be.

With better overall playmaking in the pros, Cauley-Stein will likely continue to rack up easy buckets off drive-and-dumpoffs, lobs and transition opportunities. 

Either way, NBA coaches are bound to value the defensive versatility he offers right off the bat. While it's his rim protection that comes to mind first, there just aren't many 7-footers who can also switch onto guards and contain pick-and-rolls.

The box scores probably won't be a great indicator of Cauley-Stein's game-to-game impact. But considering he'll step in right away as one of the league's most athletic centers, something tells me his coach will find a way to use him quickly.

Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SG/SF, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Bench energizer 

Projected Stats: 15-20 minutes, 5-7 points, 4-6 rebounds, 1-2 blocks, 45 percent shooting, 30 percent from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 10 percent

Without much shot-creating ability or off-the-dribble skills, Justise Winslow won't get my nod as a Rookie of the Year contender. 

He's made just nine two-point jumpers all season, with the rest of his buckets either coming off hard drives to the rack, spot-up threes or transition opportunities. 

At 6'6", 225 pounds, Winslow has motor and athleticism that could work in an energizer role off the bench. He also has excellent defensive tools and work ethic, something that might win over a coach if he has enough offensive weapons at his disposal. 

To make an offensive impact, Winslow will have to continue knocking down threes, which he's surprisingly done this year at a 40 percent clip. Although the fact that he's shooting 60 percent from the line raises questions as to just how sharp his jumper really is. 

Myles Turner, Texas, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman

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Immediate Role: Bench big man

Projected Stats: 10-15 minutes, 5-7 points, 4-6 rebounds, 1-2 blocks, 45 percent shooting, 30 percent from three

Rookie of the Year Odds: 5 percent

Though he's likely to go high in the draft, given the long-term appeal tied to his jumper and defense, Myles Turner isn't going to make much noise as an NBA rookie. 

He's just not strong enough for the interior, where he rarely plays to begin with. As ESPN's Fran Fraschilla recently wrote: 

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While Turner is likely to fall somewhere in the NBA draft lottery, he will need to make major adjustments to his game that will take time. Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career.

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And despite all the buzz surrounding his stretch potential as a shooter, he's only making 28.6 percent of his threes.

Turner has finished with eight or fewer points 16 times this year. He's tall, skilled and long, but he'll need a good two to three years before offering a team consistent, serviceable minutes.