UNC Basketball: Tar Heels' Biggest Storylines Ahead of Duke Showdown

It doesn't matter what the stakes are for the rest of the season: North Carolina wants to do whatever it takes to beat Duke.

The Tar Heels missed out on a good chance to pull off the upset on the road when these teams played earlier in the year. A double-digit, second-half lead was quickly erased, and the Blue Devils escaped with a 92-90 overtime win that stands as one of the best college basketball games of the 2014-15 season.

North Carolina will now want to get payback, but it will not be that easy. In order for this group to be able to knock off the No. 3 team in the country, it must first prove some things about itself.

These questions will determine whether the Tar Heels will be able to earn the win and greatly improve their resume as they close out the regular season. Here are the top storylines heading into Saturday's clash with Duke.

Which Marcus Paige Will Show Up?

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Marcus Paige can and should be one of the top playmakers in the nation. Unfortunately, he simply hasn't been that on too many occasions for North Carolina.

After being named first-team preseason All-American by the Associated Press, the junior has seen his scoring drop from 17.5 points per game a year ago to just 13.2 this season. He still leads the team, but a lot more is needed for this squad to reach its potential.

Things have been even worse lately, as Paige has been limited to single digits in four of the past six games. Unsurprisingly, the Tar Heels are just 3-3 in these contests.

It's obviously necessary to keep balance within the offense, but Paige is the one who can take over a game with his scoring as he has shown in the past. He needs to be more aggressive with the ball and look to create chances for himself as well as others.

If he is limited again, North Carolina will be in trouble.

Can the Defense Force Turnovers?

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Although North Carolina isn't usually too aggressive on the defensive end of the court, the team is better when it is able to force opponents to turn the ball over.

This could be seen in the recent blowout against Georgia Tech, which was undoubtedly one of the best defensive performances of the year for the Tar Heels. The Yellow Jackets turned the ball over 18 times while being limited to just 49 points in a fast-paced game.

Even the overtime loss against Duke featured some quality pressure defense, forcing the Blue Devils into 16 giveaways, including a season high of six by freshman point guard Tyus Jones.

North Carolina has a lot of length on the perimeter between Justin Jackson and J.P. Tokoto. This has helped the team excel at defending against three-point shots, but it could also be used to get into passing lanes and make things difficult before the shots go off.

Duke has one of the most efficient offenses in the nation with the ability to score from just about anywhere on the floor. If you can take away possessions with turnovers, it will greatly increase your chance of winning.

How Much Will the Bench Contribute?

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Despite some up-and-down play as of late, Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks will do their part up front while the rest of the starting lineup contributes on the scoreboard as well. However, the big difference in this game will be the amount of production North Carolina gets from its bench.

Duke has a lot of great characteristics, but at this point of the year depth is not one of them. The Blue Devils now utilize just a short eight-man rotation, which was seen in their recent win over Syracuse in which all five starters played at least 30 minutes.

As a result, North Carolina has to push the pace and use its depth to its advantage.

Players like Joel James, Joel Berry, Isaiah Hicks and Nate Britt all contribute in various ways, but they will all be major factors in this game. James and Hicks will add some much-needed, low-post help defensively, while Berry and Britt can add some outside shooting the team lacks aside from Paige.

It will be a huge boost if these players can keep the game close while wearing down the opposing starters.

Can Jahlil Okafor Be Stopped for an Entire Game?

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Considering Quinn Cook and Jones each scored 22 against the Tar Heels last game while Jahlil Okafor only managed 12, the bigger concern would be the guard play. However, Duke succeeds because of the big man in the middle.

Okafor injured his ankle in the first game against UNC, yet still played 41 minutes and had two of the biggest baskets in the game to take and keep the lead in overtime. After not suiting up against Clemson, the freshman returned to combine for 43 points, 23 rebounds and six assists over the next two games. 

The problem is simply a lack of personnel who can defend him. The 6'11", 270-pound center is just too strong for Johnson, too tall for Meeks and too skillful for either of them. When you double-team him, it only leads to an open shooter on the perimeter.

On the plus side, the three-point shooting Duke utilized last game should not be a recurring problem. The Tar Heels rank 11th in the nation in allowing just 29.3 percent of opposing three-point shots to fall, according to KenPom.com.

Still, Roy Williams and company have to figure out a way to keep the ball away from Okafor. North Carolina was able to do that for the majority of the last game, but he still found a way to come through late.

The ability (or inability) to slow down the center will be the difference in this game.

Will UNC Be Able to Close out a Win?

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There is a major difference between playing well against great teams and actually beating them. North Carolina has done extremely well in the first part, but the latter needs work.

Despite a strong season, the Tar Heels are not likely to end up with a high seed in the NCAA tournament due to just a 4-9 record against the RPI top 50, including 1-5 against the top 25, according to ESPN.

Among these losses, there are two overtime defeats (Duke and Louisville) in which they had double-digit leads in the second half before collapsing. A one-point loss to Notre Dame and five-point loss to Iowa can also qualify as very winnable games.

The problem clearly isn't a lack of talent but simply poor mental attitude. Whether that falls on the players, coaches or somewhere in between is unknown, but there is no denying it is a major issue if this team wants to make a run in March.

If North Carolina is able to get a late lead Saturday against Duke, the team has to believe it can close out the win. Otherwise, there will be even more questions as we head into the postseason.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter. If it's March, I'm talking about pretty much nothing but college basketball.