The Most Underrated and Overrated 2015 NBA Draft Prospect at Every Position
There are a handful of 2015 NBA draft prospects who aren't getting enough love, and there are also some who are overvalued by scouts, media and fans.
Sometimes people fall deeply in love with a player's strong suits, and unfortunately they overestimate his impact or forget about damaging flaws. In other cases, fans or analysts don't adequately credit ballers who have useful skills or noticeable potential.
Which prospects are the most underrated or overrated at each position? We identified players whose draft hype or media attention is disproportionate to their true value, or those who are ranked too high/low on various draft boards.
Our list includes overestimated stars from big-name schools like Duke, Texas and Arizona, but there are also some underappreciated competitors from marquee programs. Who made the cut?
Most Overrated Point Guard: Tyus Jones, Duke Freshman
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2014-15 Stats: 32.9 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 5.7 APG, .421% FG, .396% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Late first round
Potential Landing Spots: Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets
There's nothing about Tyus Jones' offensive skill set that's overrated. What I'm concerned about is his physical profile, athleticism and defensive capabilities.
In fact, he's overrated for the simple reason that he's widely considered a one-and-done stud.
Jones isn't long enough (6'1" with a 6'5" wingspan) or explosive enough to consistently attack the rim against pro-caliber defenders, and he's also not gifted enough for any margin of error on the defensive side.
He needs more time to learn how to counteract these deficiencies, as ESPN's Fran Fraschilla explained during a recent film session.
"Numerous times this season he has struggled to keep the ball in front of him," Fraschilla said. "This lack of elite athleticism will be problematic at the NBA level if Jones cannot compensate. Some tout him as a one-and-done to enter the NBA draft, but I am not sure that is the wise move."
Most Underrated Point Guard: Kris Dunn, Providence Junior
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2014-15 Stats: 33.8 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 7.5 APG, 2.8 SPG, .482% FG, .333% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Late first/early second round
Potential Landing Spots: Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves
Most NBA fans and media have feasted their eyes on elite playmakers like China's Emmanuel Mudiay and Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell. They've also followed floor generals for nationally renowned programs, like Duke's Tyus Jones and Notre Dame's Jerian Grant.
One point man who deserves more of the spotlight is Providence junior Kris Dunn, who's tallying robust numbers and providing plenty of evidence that he could compete in the Association.
Dunn's shifty handles and speed enable him to burn opponents, and his vision continually finds teammates. He's leading the Big East and the entire NCAA in assist percentage (49.2).
He can also score the rock effectively, using his 6'8" wingspan to convert a smorgasbord of drives, runners and mid-range jumpers. He's not a prolific three-point shooter, but his 36 percent mark in Big East play is an improvement from his early-season cold spell.
On defense, Dunn's length and aggressiveness come in handy against opposing point guards. He's leading the conference in steals and steal percentage. Dunn will be a hot commodity for teams searching for a dynamic two-way backup PG.
Most Overrated Shooting Guard: Ron Baker, Wichita State Junior
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2014-15 Stats: 32.4 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 2.4 APG, .448% FG, .406% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Early second round
Potential Landing Spots: Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat
Wichita State's Ron Baker is a superb three-point shooter, a smart player and a fierce all-around contributor. He's putting up solid numbers for the Shockers as their star 2-guard.
But can he really survive as a shooting guard in the NBA, or even play some point guard?
I have my doubts. There's not enough in his repertoire to suggest he'll creatively break down opponents off the dribble, and he probably won't have the physical tools (6'4") or athleticism to defend NBA guards.
He'll undoubtedly drill open triples as a pro (he's hitting 41 percent from distance in 2014-15). But will he be able to create separation and score from mid-range or around the hoop?
Against top-tier programs, he hasn't proven that he can do much more than shoot from the outside and operate within his team's system. He could end up being someone like Matthew Dellavedova, but with weaker point guard skills.
Most Underrated Shooting Guard: Rashad Vaughn, UNLV Freshman
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2014-15 Stats: 32.3 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, .439% FG, .383% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Early to mid-second round
Potential Landing Spots: Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets
Many analysts have placed Rashad Vaughn in the 30s, 40s or even 50s on their big boards. Regardless of whether that's due to his meniscus injury, those prognosticators will be sorry if he reaches his tangible potential.
UNLV's 6'5" freshman was lighting up the Mountain West before he was sidelined, and he shot the ball more efficiently in conference play than earlier in the season: 45 percent from the field, 42 percent from three-point range.
With an array of moves and a knack for creating his own jumper, Vaughn has the look of an NBA 2-guard. CBSSports.com's Sam Vecenie recently explained why Vaughn could be exceptionally valuable:
"...Vaughn is true scorer, as he's averaging 17.8 points-per-game this season, which is good for third among all freshmen behind only Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell...Also, he's a young 18-year-old, as he doesn't turn 19 until August. That means he still has an awful lot of upside as he continues to gain experience...Vaughn is not only a good run and jump athlete in space, but also extremely fluid in the way that he moves both in the half court and in transition.
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A ranking in the 30s is understandable, but those who put him lower are underestimating his skill set and favorable upside.
Most Overrated Small Forward: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona Sophomore
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2014-15 Stats: 28.1 MPG, 11.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, .525% FG, .238% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Late first round
Potential Landing Spots: Los Angeles Lakers, Toronto Raptors
I don't think there is any massively overrated small forward in this year's draft class. Everyone has been assessed relatively accurately.
We're going to nominate 6'7" Arizona wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He's widely ranked in the 20s along with small forwards like Justin Anderson and Sam Dekker, but his value doesn't match up with theirs due to his offensive shakiness.
Hollis-Jefferson hasn't made big strides as an offensive player, because his handles are still raw and his jump shot is still suspect. He's connecting on just 24 percent of his threes from college range, and he's only making 35 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com.
His 7'0" wingspan and elite defensive talent will likely keep him in the first round. But if he can't consistently hit outside shots, it will be hard for his NBA coach to justify substantial playing time.
Most Underrated Small Forward: Jake Layman, Maryland Junior
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2014-15 Stats: 29.9 MPG, 13.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, .478% FG, .389% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Early second round
Potential Landing Spots: Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics
If Jake Layman keeps delivering his inside-outside punch for Maryland, there's a good chance he'll work his way into the first round.
For now, the 6'9" junior is one of the most underappreciated wing prospects in the field. He finds buckets throughout the game via drives, post-ups, floaters and well-timed cuts. And when he's not scoring near the hoop, he's stretching the defense with his smooth three-point shot.
His movements and contributions on the offensive end look a lot like Chandler Parsons. Layman can attack closeouts with long, efficient strides and finish above the rim with length and athleticism. Like Parsons, he's not an incredible ball-handler but knows how to find high-percentage opportunities.
He's not the quickest or most explosive defender, but he should be able to check most small forwards due to his mobility and length. Layman has worked to help Maryland improve its defense this season, and his defensive rating is a career-best 95.5.
Right now he's viewed as a second-round pick, but he could be much more potent than that for his NBA squad.
Most Overrated Power Forward: Montrezl Harrell, Louisville Junior
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2014-15 Stats: 34.5 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG, .577% FG, .576% FT
Current Draft Stock: Mid-first round
Potential Landing Spots: Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers
Due to his rim-rocking exploits and star role in Louisville's high-profile program, the Cardinals' 6'8" forward Montrezl Harrell often gets a little more NBA hype than he deserves, especially from fans.
Harrell knows how to finish with authority when he gets the ball deep in the paint, and his energy and enthusiasm shouldn't be downplayed.
However, those traits also shouldn't be overvalued when we're talking about his draft value. It takes more than dunking to be a star in the NBA, and Harrell just hasn't shown enough development as a creative pivot man. ESPN's Chad Ford discussed Harrell's situation.
"Harrell is essentially the same guy he was last season," Ford wrote. "He's a beast on the boards, tries to finish everything with a dunk and plays with great energy. His lack of elite size hurts his ceiling."
If you're hoping for anything more than a solid role player, dial down your expectations for Harrell. Players like Kenneth Faried have shown the limitations of a 4 without post moves and a perimeter game.
Most Underrated Power Forward: Bobby Portis, Arkansas Sophomore
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2014-15 Stats: 29.3 MPG, 17.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG, .563% FG, .455% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Mid-first round
Potential Landing Spots: Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards
With the size and strength to produce in the paint, along with the agility and skill to score from outside, Arkansas sophomore Bobby Portis offers tremendous NBA value.
The 6'11" power forward is shooting 77 percent at the rim (per Hoop-Math.com), 41 percent on two-point jumpers and 46 percent from three-land. That kind of effectiveness at all three ranges is something that can't be over-appreciated.
"You don't have many 6'11" guys that have the versatility of a Bobby Portis," Razorbacks coach Mike Anderson told Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports. "This guy is one of the top scorers in our league, and he's the top field-goal percentage guy in our league. He's one of the top shot-blockers in our league, and he's one of the top rebounders in our league."
Portis projects to be a high-level rebounder and rim protector at the 4 position in the NBA, and his offensive skill set is what's truly intriguing. He can post up, sink triples and execute drives from the wing.
I would be surprised if a general manager doesn't scoop him up in the teens on draft night.
Most Overrated Center: Myles Turner, Texas Freshman
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2014-15 Stats: 23.2 MPG, 11.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.8 BPG, .466% FG, .286% 3PT
Current Draft Stock: Top 10/late lottery
Potential Landing Spots: Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz
Myles Turner's shooting touch is as good as advertised, and so are his length and shot-blocking abilities.
Those are two important traits to possess, but the Texas big man is going to have trouble in a host of other areas when he enters the NBA.
The 6'11" freshman is a below-average athlete, getting minimal lift when he jumps. This has hurt his ability to score around the rim and rebound in college, and you can bet it will hinder his effectiveness in the NBA. Despite his 7'4" wingspan, less than a quarter of his field-goal attempts are at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
In conference play, he's grabbing an underwhelming 10.5 boards per 40 minutes, and his offensive rebounding percentage is 6.0. Does he have the agility and quickness to consistently work the glass in the NBA?
The other major deficiency that many are overlooking is his shot-creating abilities. Turner can't really create his own shot, so his offense is mostly dump-off passes and pick-and-pop attempts. He's often compared to LaMarcus Aldridge, but who knows if he'll ever develop the mid-post turnaround like LA?
Most Underrated Center: Dakari Johnson, Kentucky Sophomore
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2014-15 Stats: 17.4 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, .508% FG, .631% FT
Current Draft Stock: Late first/early second round
Potential Landing Spots: Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets
Like Myles Turner, Dakari Johnson isn't a leaper. But he's a much different type of center, because 59 percent of his field-goal attempts are at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Due to his limited playing time on Kentucky's loaded roster, the 6'11" sophomore is conservatively kept in the high 20s or 30s on draft boards. And that's understandable. I just think he's more of a solid first-round pick than many realize.
Johnson has a bruising, 263-pound frame, and he knows how to take advantage of it. He sets up shop deep in the post and buries opponents with one or two smooth, powerful back-to-the-basket moves. His aggressiveness in the paint has yielded 9.3 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes (including 7.7 against SEC opponents).
As a rebounder, Johnson wears opponents down on both ends of the floor. Even while sharing the floor with other prolific board-getters, he hauls in 12.1 per 40 minutes and registers a 14.4 rebounding percentage.
If he lands in the second round, consider him a huge steal.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from Sports-Reference.com/CBB and are current entering March 5.
Follow Dan O'Brien on Twitter for more NBA draft coverage: @DanielO_BR
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