2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Arizona Cardinals Stars
The 2015 fantasy football outlook for the Arizona Cardinals stars is cloudy considering the bulk of the team’s talent is on the defensive side of the ball. Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer all need a healthy 2015 to climb out of the fantasy basement.
General manager Steve Keim and head coach Bruce Arians are the best things going for the Cardinals' beleaguered offense—ranked 24th in NFL scoring (23rd adjusted for standard fantasy). That’s why president Michael Bidwill locked both of them up through 2018, according to Darren Urban of AZ Cardinals.com.
"I’m like the fans, I want stability and we are going in the right direction and also reward them for our past successes. We’ve had tremendous success. What Steve has done as general manager and Bruce has done as head coach speaks for itself. They’ve been recognized in the industry as two of the best, and I wanted to reward them and extend them.
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Arians won NFL Coach of the Year in 2014 and 2012, while Keim earns respect for finessing tricky salary-cap situations like Fitzgerald’s (see slide).
Keim has $13.5 million under the cap at his disposal, ranked 21st in the league. That’s plenty to inject new life into the running game.
Arians will then decide which pieces of the Cardinals current roster will contribute to a stronger offense for NFL and fantasy purposes.
Some of the names ahead won’t be around for that transition, while others will play pivotal roles.
Honorable Mention
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Marion Grice, RB
Grice earned little playing time behind Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams as the trio filled in for an ailing Andre Ellington.
The 2014 rookie out of Arizona State remains buried on the depth chart heading into 2015.
Robert Hughes, FB
Hughes’ primary role is as a traditional blocking fullback. He touched the ball just 15 times in 2014. He isn’t expected to be any more involved this season from a fantasy perspective.
Ryan Lindley, QB
Lindley muddled through two starts with Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton sidelined with injuries. His 56.8 passer rating ensures he won’t see the field again unless the Cardinals are once more out of better options.
Darren Fells, TE
Fells’ ascension to TE1 in Arizona won’t translate to any fantasy success, according to Zach Buchanan of AZCentral Sports.
"[Assistant tight-ends coach] Steve Heiden has told me that I have the opportunity to be one of the better blocking tight ends in the league. I've been taking that in and assuming that role.
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Don’t be tempted by Fells 6’7”, 281-pound basketball body. He’s not even a fantasy sleeper in this offense.
John Carlson, TE
Carlson started 12 games while participating in all 16, yet he finished 33rd among tight ends in fantasy scoring with just 36 points.
He ceded the starting gig to Fells late in 2014.
Jaron Brown, WR
Brown’s development progressed nicely in his second season out of Clemson. Unfortunately, his offseason work will be stunted by a shoulder injury suffered in the wild-card loss to Carolina, according to AZ Cardinals.com’s Darren Urban via Twitter.
"WR Jaron Brown fractured his scapula in the Panthers game. Out 4-6 months.
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) January 4, 2015
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Brown should return in time to compete for the fourth spot on the wide receiver depth chart, but that bears little fantasy relevance in 2015.
Rob Housler, TE
Housler is an unrestricted free agent likely headed toward the open market, according to Rotoworld. He barely got a sniff in Arizona.
Perhaps the 6’5”, 250-pounder will find a stronger offense in 2015. Rotoworld’s Evan Silva ranked him sixth among free-agent tight ends.
Drew Stanton, QB
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Bruce Arians trumpeted Stanton’s ability from the earliest days of his tenure in Arizona, according to The Associated Press in 2013.
"I have all the confidence in the world with him being our starter. When everything settles down and the roster is complete for spring, we'll look at the situation and if we feel we can name a starter, we will name a starter. We need leadership on that side of the football and in our whole locker room.
We'll exhaust every opportunity in the draft, whoever else is available, but we are quite honestly comfortable with Drew Stanton.
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Stanton didn’t get his shot in 2013 because Steve Keim deftly traded for Carson Palmer, who started all 16 games.
The seven-year career-backup stood ready to answer the call in 2014 as Palmer struggled with injuries. Stanton started eight games, finishing with a decent 78.7 passer rating.
Palmer is obviously Arizona’s starting quarterback heading into the 2015 season. Stanton proved he merits little fantasy value even if he takes over for Palmer again.
Stepfan Taylor, RB
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Taylor started the last five games of the Cardinals’ season—including playoffs—after Andre Ellington’s sports hernia sidelined him for the rest of the season.
Taylor contributed three touchdowns on just 11 receptions in the passing game, but he was severely outplayed as a rusher by Kerwynn Williams—3.3 yards per carry to 4.6.
Rotoworld lists Taylor third on the running back depth chart, upgraded to second in short-yardage situations behind Ellington. Taylor is the biggest halfback on the roster at 216 pounds.
The 2013 fifth-rounder out of Stanford didn’t show enough to warrant any fantasy attention in 2015.
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Kerwynn Williams, RB
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Williams made a splash late in the 2014 season as he ascended to RB2 in Andre Ellington’s absence. He led the team with 4.6 yards per carry on 53 attempts.
His best game was his first in the NFL, a 100-yard day against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14. Bruce Arians described why Arizona promoted Williams from the practice squad, according to Brandon Judd of the Deseret News.
"I knew Kerwynn was going to play well, that’s why we made the move. He’s been the only guy on our practice field the last three weeks that made our players go, ‘wow’—making people miss, working our defense.
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The Cardinals released veteran running back Michael Bush upon Williams’ success.
Arizona is the third stop in two years for the 2013 seventh-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts. He doesn’t have the body of a feature back at 5’8”, 197 pounds.
The Utah State product is nothing more than a fantasy dark horse with change-of-pace potential heading into 2015.
John Brown, WR
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Brown emerged as a sleeper in his rookie year from the middle of nowhere—literally: Division II Pittsburgh State in Pittsburgh, KS (home of the Gorillas).
The speedy 5’11”, 179-pounder benefited from the attention paid to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, hauling in 48 passes for 696 yards and five touchdowns. His receiving acumen rendered Ted Ginn Jr. expandable after just one season with the Cardinals, according to Darren Urban of AZ Cardinals.com.
Brown’s greatest contribution in his rookie season came in the form of huge catches, according to Kyle Odegard of AZ Cardinals.com.
"That’s what I’m here for. That’s what coach Bruce Arians brought me in for, to make big plays. They say big-time players step up in big-time games, so I try to do the best that I can do when it’s my time.
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Brown’s big plays couldn’t overshadow his overall inconsistency in 2014. Throw him on your fantasy roster as a reserve and monitor his development in 2015.
Michael Floyd, WR
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Floyd caught fewer balls (47) than Larry Fitzgerald (63) and John Brown (48), but he did more with it averaging 17.9 yards per catch and six touchdowns.
The 2012 first-rounder out of Notre Dame didn’t fulfill the promise of his breakout 2013 campaign—65 catches, 1,041 yards and five touchdowns. The stumble can be partially attributed to instability at quarterback and a lack of a running game.
But Floyd rated 59th in the passing game out of 78 wide receivers that took 50 percent of their team’s snaps, according to Pro Football Reference. He graded last on the Cardinals wide receiver corps.
Arizona could extend Floyd’s rookie contract through 2016 via the fifth-year option available to all 2012 first-rounders. The decision will be a referendum on the team’s expectations for potential No. 1 wide receiver.
Floyd is too inconsistent to be considered anything above a flex option for 2015.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR
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Fitzgerald ended 2014 with 63 catches for 784 yards and two touchdowns. It was his worst season as a pro, ranking 56th among wide receivers in fantasy points (90) per Pro Football Reference.
Some—like CBS Sports.com’s Joel Corry via Twitter—speculated that Arizona and Fitzgerald would part ways given the size of his current contract at the end of the season.
"Larry Fitzgerald may have played his last game with the Arizona Cardinals. He's made $114.99M from his NFL contracts while with the team.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) January 4, 2015
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But Steve Keim managed to keep the face of the franchise by renegotiating his deal, per Corry.
"Larry Fitzgerald's new deal is a $10M 2nd day of '15 league year roster bonus w/$1M & $11M '15 & '16 base salaries. The deal is fully GTD.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) February 20, 2015
Larry Fitzgerald's new deal contains a no trade clause.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) February 20, 2015
Larry Fitzgerald's 2015 cap number goes from $23.6M to $10.85M with his new deal. The Cardinals pick up $12.75M of cap space.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) February 20, 2015
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Bruce Arians emphasized Fitzgerald’s recent injury troubles as the source of his plunging production, according to Kent Somers of AZCentral Sports.
"The big thing for Larry is we've got to keep him healthy. Two years ago, it was the hamstrings. He got the MCL [sprain] twice this year. And he was playing a very high level [pre-injury]. He's a warrior so he's going to continue playing through the injury.
He plays wide receiver and we're going to throw him the damn ball.
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Arians also discussed Fitzgerald’s place on the roster in an interview on SiriusXM Radio (h/t ESPN.com’s John Weinfuss).
“He’s more than the face of the franchise. He’s really the heartbeat of the organization because he’s put so much into it. You never want to see him in another colored jersey.”
The All-Pro is entering his 12th season, turning 32 in August. He has the potential to reclaim WR1 status, but that would require him—and Carson Palmer—to stay healthy throughout 2015.
Those odds don’t look good given recent history, meaning Fitzgerald peaks at WR2 for fantasy purposes.
Andre Ellington, RB
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The offensive game plan for 2015 centers around Ellington, according to AZ Cardinals.com’s Darren Urban via Twitter.
"Arians: Andre Ellington is still the focal point of the offense.
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) February 19, 2015"
Ellington lost the burst he showed in his rookie season thanks to a nagging foot injury originally suffered in the preseason, according to ESPN.com’s Josh Weinfuss via Twitter.
"Arians said RB Andre Ellington split the tendon in his left foot. Ouch.
— Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) February 19, 2015"
His disappointing 2014 season ended early when the Cardinals placed him on injured reserve for a sports hernia in December, according to Weinfuss.
Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 2013 (652 yards on 118 attempts), splitting carries with Rashard Mendenhall. His YPC average sunk to 3.3 in 2014 (660 yards on 210 attempts), although Ellington remained effective in the passing game (8.6 yards per catch in 2014, 9.5 in 2013).
Steve Keim still believes the 5’10”, 199-pounder can carry a full season’s workload, according to Vince Marotta of Arizona Sports.
"From a skill standpoint, I do. When I went back and looked at some of the cut-ups, you can't deny his skills -- his feet, his acceleration -- he's got dynamic skills and game-changing speed. That being said, it remains to be seen whether he can stay healthy for a full season. To me, that's why this offseason is so big for him.
He's got to get bigger and stronger in the weight room and he's got to prove he can stay healthy through a full 16-game season.
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Arizona is likely to scour free agency for an answers to the league’s 31st-ranked running game. DeMarco Murray is one option, according to Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas.
The Cardinals are also mentioned as a front-runner in trade rumors with the Minnesota Vikings for Adrian Peterson, according to Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com.
If Arizona makes a big splash in the running back market either in March or April—in the draft—then it’s obvious Keim’s words are just lip service.
It will be interesting to see how Ellington produces in an RB1-role if he can stay healthy, but don’t notch him as an RB1 in fantasy regardless of how things play out in Arizona’s backfield this offseason.
Carson Palmer, QB
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Palmer is swiftly recovering from the second-career ACL tear, according to ESPN’s Ed Werder via Twitter.
"#Cardinals QB Carson Palmer tells me feeling great 3 months post-surgery for ACL tear. Expects to be involved in mini-camp, training camp
— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) February 17, 2015
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This is no doubt good news for an Arizona offense that sputtered in his absence.
The 35-year-old might be asked to restructure his contract, according to Fox Sports Phoenix’s Mike Jurecki via Twitter.
"Hearing Carson Palmer could be an option for restructuring his contract. As long as they don't increase his salary they can redo the deal.
— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) February 25, 2015
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But he’s not a cap-casualty candidate in 2015 with $20 million in dead money looming.
This front-office shuffling does not translate into any hesitation about Palmer’s value to the team in Bruce Arians’ mind, according to Conor Orr of NFL.com.
"Don't jinx me, baby. He's doing extremely well. He's at least three to four weeks ahead of schedule. He keeps talking about minicamp and we'll see how he progresses ... whether or not we'll let him do anything this spring.
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Palmer directed the best passer rating in his career (95.6) in his six starts before the injury. Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley and Logan Thomas managed only a 72.9 rating without him. He averaged 18.8 fantasy points in the five starts he completed, which would have been good enough for fifth among quarterbacks in 2014.
Make sure to have a serviceable backup if drafting Palmer for 2015. His upside is QB1-worthy, but his age and injury history are serious causes for alarm.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.
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