5 2015 NBA Playoff Teams Running on Fumes Heading into the Stretch Run
The NBA's postseason picture isn't crystal clear just yet, but several squads have done enough to solidify their status as inevitable entrants into the playoff field.
However, just because franchises made headway early in the year doesn't mean they've been able to sustain championship-caliber paces as the 2014-15 regular season winds down.
Since the All-Star break concluded and the trade deadline passed, several teams have taken statistical steps back at the cost of continuity and postseason seeding.
So while the Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets have gained steam, some clubs—including the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards—have lost considerable momentum over the past couple of weeks.
With an eye toward post-All-Star break returns and trends that have emerged over the past month, take a gander at which clubs need to flip switches over the season's final six weeks.
Honorable Mention: Golden State Warriors
1 of 7
The Golden State Warriors are 4-3 since the All-Star break, so they aren't quite running on fumes.
Instead, a close call against the Boston Celtics, an 11-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers and a last-second defeat versus the Brooklyn Nets are all indicative of the team's encounter with a midseason malaise.
Bleacher Report's Dan Favale explains:
"The Warriors have no incentive to fight like hell for the West's top spot—especially when it's already in their possession.
This self-admitted approach doesn't mean they're bored, nor are the latest returns a harbinger of doom.
This is just what it looks like when a championship contender that's head and shoulders above the rest uses its status as a safety net.
"
With a 4.5-game cushion on the Memphis Grizzlies (more on them in a second), there's no need for Golden State to press the panic button. The Warriors still rank No. 7 overall in net rating since the All-Star break, with the most noticeable slippage coming on defense.
In that span, Golden State is allowing 102.5 points per 100 possessions, 4.5 points more than the team's league-leading average.
There's no reason to think the Warriors' struggles will persist given their pristine track record, but consecutive showdowns against the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers should provide a nice stretch-run litmus test this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 7
Like the Golden State Warriors, the Memphis Grizzlies are experiencing a bit of a late-season slippage. It's nothing to be too concerned about, of course, but their post-All-Star ebbs and flows deserve a brief mention.
Over its last five games, Memphis is 3-3—which shouldn't raise any major red flags.
However, the process by which Memphis has accumulated that record just might.
As a product of back-to-back losses against the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Clippers, the Grizzlies rank 25th in net rating at minus-5.1 points per 100 possessions since the midseason break.
The noteworthy component of that ranking involves the club's temporary offensive struggles. While Memphis is still posting a defensive rating under 100, its offense has actually been worse than the Philadelphia 76ers' on a per-possession basis over the past two weeks.
But that's hardly a reason to sound the alarm.
Memphis may be playing five of its next six games on the road, but none of those contests will come against legitimate title contenders.
With March upon us, expect the Grizzlies' intensity to ramp up as it tries to gain complete control of the No. 2 seed.
Chicago Bulls
3 of 7
At what point will the Chicago Bulls catch a break?
As if Derrick Rose's meniscus surgery weren't bad enough, Jimmy Butler is expected to miss three to four weeks with an elbow sprain while Taj Gibson is "out at least a week and could be two" with an ankle injury, according to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson.
So to recap, the Bulls are without three of their top four scorers, two of their best rebounders and their most reliable distributor.
Even for a team that's familiar with untimely medical frustrations, that's outrageous.
"The Bulls have dealt with injuries before," Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin wrote. "It would be easier to list the times over the past three years when they haven’t been down a key player or two. But three at once, on this roster, with this schedule on the horizon is going to be tough to survive."
Of late, the Bulls have actually been quite solid on defense. They've held five straight opponents under 100 points, with three of those foes failing to crack 90 points.
But on offense, the struggle has been very real.
Chicago's offensive efficiency has plummeted roughly 4.5 points since the All-Star break, with backcourt instability pushing its rate of production under 100 points per 100 possessions. For a team that's banked on its firepower to stay afloat during a trying year, that's frightening.
“No one’s going to feel sorry for us," head coach Tom Thibodeau said, according to Highkin. "Just got to go out there and get it done."
Those words provide a faint glimmer of hope, but Chicago's title hopes are officially on life support.
Dallas Mavericks
4 of 7
A verbal exchange between point guard Rajon Rondo and head coach Rick Carlisle revealed that the Dallas Mavericks are walking a symbiotic tightrope.
And while that rift is reportedly behind the two, according to ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon, Dallas is still dealing with a chemical imbalance of sorts.
As MacMahon noted, the conflicted parties have to find a happy middle ground that allows Rondo to conduct the offense as he sees fit while Carlisle orchestrates things tactically.
"It’s on Rondo to run the plays Carlisle calls, no questions asked and no side-eyes given," MacMahon wrote. "It’s on Carlisle to be flexible enough to at least tinker in the final quarter of the regular season with some sets that make Rondo the most comfortable, even if that means the rest of the Mavs must adjust."
Since Rondo's arrival, the Mavericks have posted a completely neutral net efficiency rating with Rondo on and off the floor. In other words, he's not helping the offense or defense function at a noticeably higher rate.
However, this isn't all on Rondo.
Over their last seven games, the Mavericks have operated with a negative differential in the efficiency department—producing a shade over 99 points per 100 possessions.
The sky isn't falling over Texas just yet, but Dallas isn't in a position advantageous to regression with home-court advantage in the first round still very attainable.
Milwaukee Bucks
5 of 7
Five-and-a-half games clear of the No. 7 seed, the Milwaukee Bucks are the last Eastern Conference team that can be considered a lock to qualify for the playoffs.
However, their chances of keeping pace once getting there figure to be slim.
Although Milwaukee owns the Eastern Conference's best defense at just under 99 points allowed per 100 possessions, it took a sizable step back on offense at the trade deadline.
With an eye toward the future, Milwaukee snagged Michael Carter-Williams and his rookie-scale deal while parting ways with the exponentially more polished Brandon Knight, who will be a restricted free agent at season's end.
As expected, the results haven't been pretty.
While the Bucks were hardly an offensive juggernaut with Knight, they were still churning out an offensive rating of 102.1, per NBA.com.
With the reigning Rookie of the Year, Milwaukee's scored fewer than 90 points per 100 possessions. Dating back to Feb. 19, that ranks dead last. Only the Denver Nuggets have been similarly inept, and they beat the Bucks, 106-95, Tuesday night.
It's tough to fault Milwaukee for acting with foresight, but the short-term results are bound to disappoint as a result.
Toronto Raptors
6 of 7
A 114-103 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers aside, Dwane Casey's Toronto Raptors have underwhelmed for the last four weeks.
For the first time this season, Toronto recorded a losing record over the course of a month by going 4-7 in February.
The last two-plus weeks have been particularly painful, with the Raptors' offensive rating hovering at 98.2 since the All-Star break.
Part of that painful production can be traced to a banged-up Kyle Lowry.
After averaging 11.9 points on 34.2 percent shooting in February, Lowry has missed Toronto's last two games with various hand ailments.
"Casey says Lowry’s hand abrasion might have become infected," the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat tweeted. "He also likely has dislocated finger, plus other issues."
It helps that Toronto's slide has coincided with the Chicago Bulls' injury troubles and the Washington Wizards' maddening inconsistency.
Unfortunately, three of the team's next four games come against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. If Toronto can't weather that storm, it may have to kiss the No. 2 seed goodbye permanently.
Washington Wizards
7 of 7
March can't possibly be any worse than February was for the Washington Wizards, but don't expect some sort of revelatory turnaround over the season's final six weeks.
Like the Toronto Raptors before them, the Wizards were positively putrid during the second month of the calendar year. A 3-9 record contributed to the team's worst stretch of the season, one that included a six-game losing streak.
As a result, Washington's dropped down to the No. 5 seed with the fledgling Milwaukee Bucks lingering 1.5 games back.
And if we turn to the all-important post-All-Star sample size, Washington looks like the biggest pretender the NBA has to offer.
Since returning from the break, the Wizards own the league's third-worst offense and sixth-worst defense, standings that have contributed to the Association's third-worst net rating in that span.
It was fun while it lasted, but Washington's title-contending status needs to be put on ice for the remainder of this season.
All statistics current as of games completed through March 3 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
