Jacksonville Jaguars' Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
With just over a week to go until the beginning of the 2015 NFL year and free agency, the anticipation to see what the Jacksonville Jaguars will do is at an all-time high. The Jaguars could possibly have the most active free-agency period in the NFL, and when March 10 rolls around, we'll start to see exactly what the Jaguars have planned.
This could be one of the most important offseasons in the history of the organization. For head coach Gus Bradley and general manager Dave Caldwell, this offseason and upcoming season is their time to prove the Jaguars can put up the results that come with improvement.
Those wins start with what the Jaguars do in free agency and the draft. While the draft seemed to be the focus for the Jaguars over the past few years, it could be quite different this year.
The Jaguars have the youth and talent, but now they need proven veterans who can perform and help lead a team. Jacksonville started with Red Bryant and Chris Clemons last season, but it needs to continue to add a veteran presence around the team.
This offseason's free-agency period could be a huge turning point for the Jaguars. If they are available to get the pieces they need to help create a better all-around team, this upcoming season will be a lot different than the previous three.
Free-Agency Overview
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So, before hopping into predictions and possibilities, let's recap the Jaguars' current situation with a quick overview.
Needs
Realistically, the Jaguars aren't above-average at any position. However, there are more immediate needs they need to focus on this free agency:
- Safety
- Tight End
- Outside Linebacker
- Wide Receiver
These four positions can all be upgraded in free agency and could make a huge difference for the Jaguars in 2015.
Who's Leaving?
As Fox Sports' Mike Garafolo first reported, corner Will Blackmon has already been released, presumably to give him some time to find a team. As for the rest of the Jaguars' free agents, here's who may be leaving:
- DE Tyson Alualu
- OLB Geno Hayes
- WR Cecil Shorts
- CB Alan Ball
- RB Jordan Todman
- OLB J.T. Thomas
- C Jacques McClendon
- FB Will Ta'ufo'ou
- RT Austin Pasztor
- DE Ryan Davis
- S Sherrod Martin
- TE Fendi Onobun
- CB Teddy Williams
- OLB A.J. Edds
Now, it's unlikely that all these players will be leaving, but I wouldn't be surprised if you only see four or five of the names on this roster next season.
Finally, let's take a look at the amount of cap space the Jaguars have:
Yeah, that much. That is the number according to Spotrac, and it also takes into consideration this year's draft picks and the impact that would have on the cap. So all in all the Jaguars have a lot of money to spend this free agency.
With the situation details out of the way, here are some predictions for the Jaguars this free-agency window.
The Jaguars Will Sign Julius Thomas
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Other than Jimmy Graham, no tight end has been as productive over the past two seasons as Julius Thomas.
With 1,282 yards and 24 touchdowns, Thomas has been a sensation for the Denver Broncos and a nightmare matchup for the AFC West and anyone Denver has to play.
At 6'5" and 250 pounds, Thomas is incredibly difficult to defend. He has more speed than a player his size should have (4.68 40-yard dash), and it becomes a difficult task to cover him.
The Jaguars need a receiver who can make big plays in any type of situation, and Thomas is that guy. His ability to get open and muscle off defenders is exactly what the Jaguars could use.
Thomas is the best tight end on the market, and they may be able to sign for him for a decent price considering his ability and production.
The financials should make sense, and if Thomas should bring his talents to Jacksonville, the Jaguars will have a stellar option at tight end to match up with a group of young, talented wide receivers.
The Jaguars Will Not Sign a High-Profile Receiver
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As much as the Jaguars seem to need a big-name wide receiver, it is unlikely they will sign a high-profile receiver this free-agency period.
With the Denver Broncos placing a non-exclusive franchise tag on Demaryius Thomas and the Dallas Cowboys placing a franchise tag on Dez Bryant, per the teams' official websites, the top two receivers in free agency are currently unavailable.
The other two top-tier receivers, Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb, are probably out of reach considering how expensive they would be. The expense of one of these receivers would cause the overall cap space to take a serious hit.
It is currently more sensible for the Jaguars to sign a consistent veteran to help lead young players like Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee. Here are some potential targets:
- Harry Douglas
- Torrey Smith
- Eddie Royal
All three of these receivers have played in the NFL for five or more years and would be solid options for Blake Bortles as well as veterans who could teach a thing or two to Lee and Robinson.
Out of the three, the best overall option is probably Smith. Smith has had four consecutive seasons for the Baltimore Ravens and would be a good No. 1 receiver for Bortles and the Jaguars in 2015.
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The Jaguars Will Take a Shot at Signing Devin McCourty
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Devin McCourty was one of the best safeties in the NFL last season. With the news that the New England Patriots have placed the franchise tag on kicker Stephen Gostkowski, per an official team release, McCourty is probably the best safety in free agency.
McCourty has started 77 of the past 80 regular-season games for the Patriots and has recorded 17 interceptions over the past five seasons. McCourty is a playmaker and leader, and he would be huge for the Jaguars secondary.
However, the Jaguars aren't the only team that realizes this. In an offseason with a somewhat barren crop of safeties in free agency, McCourty is going to be heavily shopped.
The Jaguars will be one of the teams that make a run at him, and they'll try hard. The cap space offers them a huge advantage because McCourty will realize Caldwell and Company have the money to sign him.
McCourty could be the 2015 version of Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. Signing Super Bowl champions to the defensive line seemed to work well, and McCourty's talent and experience would be a huge upgrade for the Jaguars at safety.
Like the receivers mentioned in the previous slide, McCourty could be a good role model and guide for guys like Josh Evans and Johnathan Cyprien. While Cyprien (24) and Evans (23) aren't the youngest of players, they still could learn a thing or two from a champion like McCourty.
Jaguars Will Not Sign an OLB in Free Agency, Will Re-Sign Hayes and Thomas
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J.T. Thomas III and Geno Hayes have been reliable members of the Jaguars defense over the past two seasons. They've been consistent for the Jaguars when they've needed them most, and while both are free agents, I see both of them re-signing with the Jags.
The free-agent market for linebackers is not at its best currently, and the Jaguars' best option would be to re-sign Thomas and Hayes. It's a relatively inexpensive option and a reliable one at that.
In this case, I'd also rather have guys I can trust to fit and perform in the preferred system. Every free-agent signing is a risk. Considering Hayes' and Thomas' play over the past two years, they've earned a spot with the Jags for a little while longer.
Thomas and Hayes are not going to set records or even reach the top of the stat sheet, but they understand and fit in with Gus Bradley's mindset and plans.
Signing Thomas and Hayes allows the Jaguars to focus on getting other positions situated or upgraded for a cheap price. With $61 million in cap space, it's easy to spend. But in this case it'd be good, sensible business to sign Thomas and Hayes.
Along with Thomas and Hayes, Alan Ball and Austin Pasztor Will Return
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With 15 players up for free agency, the Jaguars have quite a few decisions to make. They've already made one in the case of Will Blackmon, but the remaining 14 players (as listed on the first slide) are hanging in limbo.
As of right now, I only see the Jaguars keeping four: Hayes, Thomas, Austin Pasztor and Alan Ball.
Pasztor has been a consistent tackle for the Jaguars leading up to his injury in early December of last season. When it comes to talent on the offensive line, Pasztor may be at the bottom of the list. However, his play leading up to his injury was improving and gives the Jaguars some hope that he'll play well in his third year in the NFL.
Pasztor is also another inexpensive option for the Jaguars, and like Thomas and Hayes, signing Pasztor would open up other doors for the Jaguars to spend their money.
As for Alan Ball, he'd be a sensible signing for multiple reasons. Ball has played decently over his time with the Jaguars, he's a veteran presence for a young group of defensive backs and would be a cheap option as well.
Ball fits the criteria for a useful signing, and while he won't be the playmaker the Jaguars may want at corner, it's still sensible. They may find another option at corner to go along with Ball, Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin, but at the very least, Ball should be signed.
The Jaguars have an extensive and exciting free-agency period ahead of them. The roster could look much different than the team we got accustomed to in 2014, and that's a good thing.
The free agents the Jaguars may lose like Cecil Shorts III and Tyson Alualu will all be part of the plan Bradley and Caldwell have in mind to improve the Jaguars and get them on track for AFC South title contention.
While this free-agency period is important, it's crucial to realize that success and the team won't come together overnight. In fact, they may not come together at all.
Unless owner Shad Khan says otherwise, one has to assume this is Bradley's and Caldwell's last offseason if the results don't show. This is their third offseason together, and it's time to make the big jump to being a competitive team in the NFL.
Caldwell and Bradley realize this (I hope) and will do everything in their power to make this team into a contender. It starts with the players, and this is the Jaguars' chance to progress and finish building that type of team.
All stats were found at ESPN.com unless otherwise stated.
Evan Reier is a first-year journalism major at the University of Alabama and a member of Bleacher Report's APSM program. Follow Evan on Twitter at @evanreier.
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