March Madness 2015: Former Powerhouses Poised for Early NCAA Tournament Exits

Before we delve into another round of 2015 March Madness predictions, let's get one thing straight: This article isn't about NCAA tournament projections for past champions. Eleven-time winner UCLA is currently 17-12 and may not even make the field of 68 this year. Not to pick on UCLA here, but the Bruins haven't exactly been relevant in the NCAA tournament since their runner-up finish to Florida in 2006.

Instead, let's focus on teams that have found past success in the tournament and are also in good-enough positions to make a run at a national title this year. Of course, there aren't an abundance of squads that fit this criteria; however, it's interesting how many powerhouse schools are in similar bleak-looking situations entering March Madness.

One last thing before we get going. You may be asking: What qualifies as an early exit? In this case, being bounced from the tournament during or before the round of 32 should be considered an early exit. That said, let's get on with the predictions.

Ohio State

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The Buckeyes haven't reached an NCAA tournament final since 2007, but they always seem to be in the mix each year. Well, that's likely to change in 2015.

At 20-8, Ohio State has been one of the nation's most enigmatic teams this season. Despite losing to Louisville and North Carolina early in the season, the Buckeyes were decimating lesser opponents on a regular basis. That didn't continue.

The back half of the season has been a major roller-coaster ride, with big wins over Indiana and Maryland and bad losses against Iowa (twice) and Michigan. Factor in close losses to Purdue and Michigan Sate, and you get a team that's having a difficult time keeping up with tournament-worthy competition.

According to ESPN's RPI rankings, the Buckeyes are 1-2 against Top 25 teams, 1-2 against teams ranked 26-50 and 4-4 against teams ranked 51-100. That's a dismal 6-8 record against good to average opposition.

The Buckeyes are a solid scoring team; however, despite getting Marc Loving back from injury, they're in an offensive slump right now and have struggled out of the gate. That will make things tough for a team projected to be a middle seed and face stiff competition early in the tournament.

Louisville

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The Cardinals are another one of those teams that is always hanging around March Madness brackets. Head coach Rick Pitino led Louisville to the 2013 national title; however, the 22-6 Cardinals are in for a rude awakening in 2015.

Pitino's team began the year in typical fashion—winning by big margins. A nine-point win over Ohio State began to show this year's squad could be a contender. Even after losing by eight points to Kentucky, the Cardinals still couldn't be counted out. Things took a turn for the worse shortly after.

Losses to North Carolina, Duke and Virginia—all ranked teams—were bad omens, as Louisville suddenly appeared incapable of hanging with the nation's best squads. Things only worsened from there, as the Cardinals then suffered losses to NC State and Syracuse in back-to-back games.

Despite winning their next two contests, the Cardinals were only able to defeat Miami and Georgia Tech—two teams likely to miss the NCAA tournament—by a combined total of three points. In fact, Louisville appeared poised to lose its Feb. 23 game against the Yellow Jackets until a late surge by Terry Rozier saved the day.

The theme here is inconsistency, and while the Cardinals have a 4-1 record against teams ranked 26-50, they are 1-4 against Top 25 squads, according to ESPN's RPI rankings. Don't expect to see Louisville in the mix past the round of 32.

North Carolina

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Head coach Roy Williams has had some great runs in the NCAA tournament, winning in 2005 and 2009. Well, don't expect another in 2015, as the 19-9 Tar Heels are struggling late in the season.

Let's look at the positives here first: North Carolina does have some quality wins this season, defeating four ranked teams. However, those wins came early, and only one of those teams—Louisville—still resides in the Top 25. Making matters worse, the Tar Heels later lost to Louisville and suffered defeats at the hands of Notre Dame, Virginia, Pittsburgh and NC State.

According to ESPN's RPI rankings, North Carolina is now 1-5 against Top 25 teams and 4-3 against teams ranked 26-50. The problem here is five of those losses have come within the last seven games. That's not a good stretch in the twilight of the regular season.

The Tar Heels don't have much defense to speak of, so they win with offense—they are ranked 18th in points, second in rebounds and first in assists per game. Although, the team's Achilles' heel has been realized: It struggles when forced to play slower.

When a game is slowed down, possessions are limited and increased precision is demanded. NC State successfully limited the Tar Heels to just 55 shots, and the team responded by hitting just 34.5 percent from the floor. According to Andrew Carter of NewsObserver.com, North Carolina is now 1-5 in games in which it is afforded fewer than 65 possessions.

Many of the nation's best scoring defenses are set to participate in the NCAA tournament, and rest assured, they know all about North Carolina's weakness.