Why The Magic Won't Win In 2010

The Orlando Magic defied all expectations this past season. Picked to finish no higher than 3rd in the East, they played their way all the way to the NBA Finals before losing in 5 games to the Los Angelos Lakers. The Magic were busy in the off-season, acquiring Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from the New Jersey Nets, losing Hedo Turkoglo to free agency, and receiving Brandon Bass from the Mavericks. They also lost a few parts in Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston, who were instrumental in their play-off run. They also managed to match an offer for backup player Marcin Gortat who had received an offer sheet from the Mavericks.

It would seem the Magic reloaded in a bid to make a return trip to the Finals and possibly win this time. Before the streamers can be dropped though, several questions need to be answered.

At first glance the Vince Carter deal was a no-brainer for the Magic. They had conceded that they would probably lose Hedo in free agency and pegged Carter as a suitable alternative. But is he really?

Carter is an extraordinary athlete, with good hops, and decent range from behind the 3 point line. While not a top-notch defender he does move his feet and has long arms which put him in position to block some shots from the help-side. The problem with Carter is that he reached his peak a few years ago, and now is the time that you should expect to see some physical decline. This doesn't mean that Carter won't thrive in Orlando's up and down system, but a few people may be surprised if Carter is not able to match the numbers of the aforementioned Hedo, who he is effectively replacing. Vince was never much of a ball-handler and that could present problems as he will be asked to handle the ball a lot more than he did in New Jersey.

We should also remember that the NBA is not plug-and-play, sometimes it's more difficult to add another part and expect the wheels and cogs to turn as usual. There is the question of chemistry, which can be destroyed by even the most mundane moves.

The Carter trade was anything but mundane. Orlando replaced an integral part of their roster with a player, although talented, is not familiar with the system. Some period of adjustment will have to take place as Carter learns the playbook and his teammates' tendencies and the addition of Carter presents another subtle change next season.

One of the reasons that Orlando was so dangerous was because of the match-up issues they created. No other team could boast of two players who were 6'10 and could shoot with range. This caused other teams to scramble to find a player on their roster who was athletic enough to slide outside and defend, and agile enough to close out and protect against the dribble. This is what did Cleveland in, because the Cavs had the length to disrupt the Magic, but none of their post players were athletic enough to keep up with Hedo and Rashard Lewis.

With Carter taking over for Turk teams will be able to use more conventional methods when approaching the Magic. Some have said that the 6'10 Ryan Anderson can provide the same match-up problems that Turk did, but although Anderson can shoot with range that is about where the comparison ends. Hedo was a perimeter player with a big man's height, while Anderson is a big man with some perimeter skills. That's a big difference. Hedo was counted on to be the primary ball-handler in end-game situations, Anderson does not afford Orlando that same ability, and Hedo was the one player who could use his mis-match to get shots off the dribble, that differential also appears to be gone. That said, there is one player who could perhaps make the above issues disappear, if the time was taken in the off-season to improve.

For all that Dwight Howard is, a vicious rebounder, good at getting up and down the court, and an awesome physical specimen, there is one part of his game that needs serious work. Howard has yet to develop any go-to moves in the post. His raw strength and athleticism is nullified anytime Howard has his back to the basket. This was on full display against the Lakers in the Finals, who used Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to bottle Howard up. Neither player is known as a great defender, but they were able to match the quickness of Howard which caused him to be indecisive and ineffective in the post. More times than not Howard's dribble was cut off and he responded by throwing up off-balance shots, or creating turnovers when he couldn't kick the ball back out. Patrick Ewing is said to be mentoring Howard and all I can take from that is, either Ewing is a horrible teacher or Howard is a terrible student. To be honest it's probably a combination of both. Everyone has been singing Howard's praises since he entered the league, and it appears he's been listening to the music, because no noticeable progress in his offensive game has been acheived in the past couple of seasons.

These questions, though not paramount, must be answered if the Magic are to improve on last season's surprise 2nd place finish. The pieces may be there, but now it's a matter of seeing if they fit to complete the puzzle. The eyes of the Magic nation await the product.