NCAA Bracket Predictions 2015: Projecting the March Madness Field at Week 16

Believe it or not, there are three minor conference tournaments beginning on Tuesday, meaning that Selection Sunday is drawing extremely nigh and that once-a-week projected brackets aren't cutting the mustard any longer.

Most of the changes to the bracket since Monday night were fairly minor, but there was one critical move along the cut line: Illinois dropped out of the field after losing to Iowa and was replaced by Stanford. There's still plenty of time for the Illini to get back in, but three consecutive blown opportunities leave them with work to do.

There are quite a few games this weekend with massive tournament implications, but let's first take a look at the projected field as of Friday morning before digging into a couple of those games and mentioning which teams have moved the most since the last bracket update.

Seed	East	Midwest	South	West
Site	Charlotte	Louisville	Charlotte	Pittsburgh
1	Virginia	Kentucky	Duke	Villanova
16	New Mexico St.	FL. Gulf Coast	Lafayette/St. Francis (NY)	Stony Brook/NC Cent.
8	St. John's	Iowa	Xavier	Colorado St.
9	Michigan St.	NC St.	Indiana	Ole Miss
Site	Seattle	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Columbus
4	Northern Iowa	North Carolina	Arkansas	Oklahoma
13	Wofford	Stephen F. Austin	Iona	Old Dominion
5	Notre Dame	SMU	VCU	Louisville
12	Murray St.	Harvard	Buffalo	Temple/Stanford
Site	Pittsburgh	Columbus	Louisville	Portland
3	Maryland	Iowa State	Baylor	Utah
14	Georgia St.	UC Davis	Valparaiso	Eastern Washington
6	West Virginia	Georgetown	Wichita State	Providence
11	Georgia	Texas A&M	Purdue/Cincy	Texas
Site	Omaha	Omaha	Portland	Seattle
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Arizona	Gonzaga
15	High Point	William & Mary	Texas Southern	South Dakota St.
7	Butler	Oklahoma St.	Ohio St.	San Diego St.
10	Dayton	Davidson	LSU	Oregon

Last Five In (from safest to most perilous): Georgia, Purdue, Cincinnati, Temple, Stanford

First Five Out (from closest to most work to do): UCLA, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Kansas State

Close Enough To Be Considered: Saint Mary's, BYU, Miami, Massachusetts, Boise State

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Here's a quick note on Kansas State before we proceed any further, because it probably seems preposterous to have a 15-loss team under consideration. The final 12 teams into the field have a combined seven wins against the RPI Top 25. Kansas State has four, and the Wildcats host Iowa State on Saturday for a chance to make it five.

By the time we started working on the No. 9 seeds, Kansas State already had more RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 50 wins than any other team under consideration. If the Wildcats beat Iowa State and win the season finale at Texas, they'll be right in the mix, no matter the number of losses.

Three Biggest Risers

Baylor Bears (from No. 17 overall to No. 9 overall)

Since Jan. 12, 2012, Iowa State is 52-3 at home. The Cyclones lost to Kansas in both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons and lost to Baylor on Wednesday. The Bears are now 20-7 against the fourth-most difficult schedule in the country and are officially thinking about knocking on the door for a No. 2 seed.

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Arkansas Razorbacks (from No. 22 overall to No. 16 overall)

They didn't score the type of once-per-season win that Baylor did, but the Razorbacks stretched their winning streak to seven games with a win over Texas A&M—despite allowing a 23-point halftime lead to turn into just a six-point win. If they win at Kentucky on Saturday, you better believe they'll be one of the biggest risers again on Monday.

Iowa Hawkeyes (from No. 34 overall to No. 29 overall)

In quite the 180 from back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Northwestern, the Hawkeyes dominated games against Rutgers and Nebraska before picking up a crucial home win over Illinois on Wednesday night. As long as they don't screw up against Penn State this Saturday or against Northwestern next Saturday, they'll remain comfortably in the field.

Three Biggest Droppers

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (from No. 12 overall to No. 20 overall)

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Simply put, when your nonconference strength of schedule ranks 337th in the nation, you can't afford to be losing home games to teams that have self-imposed a postseason ban. Our eyes see a team that's probably good enough for a No. 3 seed, but as far as computer profiles are concerned (RPI: 27, SOS: 132), the Fighting Irish should be thankful for being the last No. 5 seed.

Michigan State Spartans (from No. 26 overall to No. 36 overall)

Michigan State has no RPI Top 25 wins, no RPI Top 125 nonconference wins and two bad losses at Nebraska and at home against Texas Southern. Attach, say, Boise State's name to this resume, and it might not even be in the field.

Texas Longhorns (from No. 32 overall to No. 42 overall)

Tuesday's loss at West Virginia wasn't a bad one, but it may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. Texas is now 1-8 vs. RPI Top 25 teams and 4-11 vs. the RPI Top 100. A tough strength of schedule doesn't amount to anything unless it comes with a few quality wins.

Five Critical Games This Weekend

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We've got a ton of high-profile games on tap this weekend, including four AP Top 25 battles: Arkansas vs. Kentucky, Northern Iowa vs. Wichita State, West Virginia vs. Baylor and Arizona vs. Utah. However, those are merely games between teams who are already locked into the field, fighting for seeding. Instead, the watchful eyes of bracketologists should be more focused on these five games with massive tournament implications.

No. 5 (tie): Texas at Kansas (5 p.m. ET Saturday) and Michigan State at Wisconsin (4 p.m. ET Sunday)

In both cases, we have a road team rapidly playing its way to the wrong side of the bubble and a home team trying to fight and claw its way back to a No. 1 seed. Barring an upset, Rick Barnes and Tom Izzo are going to have some work to do down the stretch.

No. 4: BYU at Gonzaga (10 p.m. ET Saturday)

Similar but opposite to the aforementioned games, this one features a bubble team hoping to get onto the right side of the cut line and a No. 1 seed looking to remain on the top line. BYU played well in the first pairing between these two teams, resulting in one of Kyle Collinsworth's five triple-doubles, but it should be even tougher sledding in Spokane.

In Friday morning's Bubble Watch, ESPN's Eamonn Brennan wrote, "At some point, you've got to beat somebody. BYU hasn't."

This might be the Cougars' last chance to pick up a sorely needed marquee win.

No. 3: North Carolina at Miami (2 p.m. ET Saturday)

North Carolina has lost its last five games against RPI Top 100 teams and needs to reassert itself as a team worthy of a top-four seed. Meanwhile, Miami could desperately use another RPI Top 50 win to prove that the 16-point win at Duke wasn't a total fluke. A resume with wins against both Duke and North Carolina would be hard to ignore.

No. 2: Purdue at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. ET Sunday)

Purdue beat Ohio State back in early February. A win for the Boilermakers would put them at 9-1 in their last 10 games, further distancing themselves from the hideous early losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb. A loss, however, would give them 10 on the season without a single RPI Top 30 win and a nonconference strength of schedule that ranks in the 200s.

While Purdue clearly needs the win, Ohio State might need it even more. A loss would be the Buckeyes' seventh in conference play and would put them at 2-8 vs. RPI Top 60. Plus, it would mean they have been swept by both Iowa and Purdue. Unless they plan on beating Wisconsin at the end of the season, the Buckeyes better win this one and Wednesday's game against Penn State to feel safe.

No. 1: Oregon at Stanford (7 p.m. ET Sunday)

Depending on what transpires elsewhere on the bubble, this could be a classic "winner stays in; loser drops out" type of affair. Stanford is currently our last team in the field and Oregon isn't ranking ahead of the "Last Five In" by much. Both are fringe RPI Top 50 teams looking to improve upon their current 2-5 record against other RPI Top 50 teams.

Amateur bracketologist and sharp-shooting Oregon guard Joseph Young said to Hayden Kim of the Daily Emerald on Feb. 17, "We're making the tournament. I just want to get that out right now."

The Ducks have since won three in a row and could all but cash in that guarantee with a win over the Cardinal.

A loss certainly wouldn't be a bad one for either team. However, "good losses" tend to result in a short lifespan on the bubble.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.