2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for San Francisco 49ers Stars

Change swirls through San Francisco 49ers camp, obscuring the 2015 outlook for the team's fantasy football stars. The theme for Anquan Boldin, Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick is “continuity” as the franchise moves on from Jim Harbaugh.

The offense plummeted to 25th in scoring after ranking 11th in each of Harbaugh’s first three seasons, according to Pro Football Reference. The 49ers ranked 24th in standard fantasy scoring for 2014.

CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke’s relationship with Harbaugh soured in 2014, according to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle:

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When you mutually part ways there are two sides to it. I realize people don’t want to look at it like that — they want to say Jim was fired. That’s not the case. Jim signed on at Michigan very shortly after he left. Obviously, there were announcements before he left that he was going to Michigan and he obviously had a tie to his alma mater. There were things there — it wasn’t, 'Well, we just couldn’t get along.’ It was on both sides.

"

San Francisco promoted eight-year defensive line coach Jim Tomsula to head coach after interviewing several more prominent names, according to Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. The open offensive coordinator position then became the focal point, given Tomsula’s defensive background and lack of NFL head coaching experience.

The 49ers eventually promoted quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst, according to NFL Network’s Albert Breer via Twitter. The hire maintains continuity from the Harbaugh regime, although several higher-profile candidates snubbed San Francisco, according to Gutierrez.  

The biggest question now is how many free agents will stick around to help with the transition. For fantasy purposes, how will it affect the prospects of the remaining names on the offense?

Honorable Mentions

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Kendall Gaskins, RB

Gaskins has yet to see NFL playing time in the regular season. The 2013 undrafted free agent out of Richmond—Go Spiders!—boasts good size at 6’1”, 238 pounds.

Rotoworld currently lists him third on San Francisco’s depth chart, but he hasn’t earned any fantasy attention yet.

Alfonso Smith, RB

The 49ers re-signed Smith after Marcus Lattimore announced his retirement in early November, according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.

The five-year veteran saw scant reserve work and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent on March 10.

Blaine Gabbert, QB

San Francisco traded Jacksonville a sixth-round pick for Gabbert in March 2014. Jacksonville took center Luke Bowanko from Virginia, who started 14 games in a decent rookie campaign.

The 2011 first-round bust from Missouri saw just a handful of snaps at the end of a lopsided thrashing in Denver, according to Pro Football Reference. Gabbert is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on March 10 if the cash-poor 49ers opt not to re-sign him.

Quinton Patton, WR

Patton challenged Stevie Johnson for the No. 3 wide receiver position in preseason, according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area. The 2013 fourth-rounder out of Louisiana Tech—Go Bulldogs!—finished 2014 sixth among 49ers wide receivers with just three receptions, according to Pro Football Reference.

Patton is a non-factor in fantasy if he can’t crack San Francisco’s starting lineup.

Derek Carrier, TE

Carrier notched one start in 11 games, tallying nine catches for 105 yards. The 2012 undrafted free agent out of Beloit—Go Buccaneers!—could compete with Vance McDonald for TE1 duties if the team releases Vernon Davis.

Carrier doesn’t deserve fantasy attention unless he develops.

Vance McDonald, TE

Jim Harbaugh said McDonald “showed improvement” in 2014 as the 49ers placed him on injured reserve in December, according to Taylor Price of 49ers.com. The 2013 second-rounder out of Rice—Go Owls!—managed just 10 catches in his first two seasons, according to Pro Football Reference.

McDonald could be thrust into the starting lineup if San Francisco parts ways with a declining Davis, but he needs to show more on the field to merit fantasy consideration.

Bruce Miller, FB

Miller saw the second-most snaps out of San Francisco’s backfield in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. Primarily a blocker, the 2011 seventh-rounder out of Central Florida—Go Knights!—saw an increased workload in the passing game late in the season.

The two touchdowns in December were nice, but Miller would have to become a larger part of the passing offense before fantasy owners should take notice.

Bruce Ellington, WR

Ellington is currently listed as the third receiver on San Francisco’s depth chart, according to Rotoworld. The promotion is due more to Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd’s free-agency status than anything the fourth-rounder out of South Carolina did in his rookie season.

But, Andre Ellington’s 5’9”, 197-pound cousin showed enough flashes to impress teammate Bruce Miller, according to Steve Corkran of the San Jose Mercury News. “We can use him a lot; he's a playmaker. He does a great job for us all the time making plays, with the run and pass. ... Just putting him in there, he's pretty dynamic.”

Ellington rates as a deep sleeper/dynasty stash heading into his second season.

Brandon Lloyd, WR

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Brandon Lloyd always seems to deliver a highlight-reel catch—or two—regardless of his overall performance. It’s been the story of a puzzling career.

He caught just 12 more passes in 2014 for the franchise that drafted him in the fourth round back in 2003, according to Pro Football Reference.

He’s expected to be looking for work come March 10, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.

Take San Francisco’s lead and avoid Lloyd in 2015.

Kendall Hunter, RB

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San Francisco extended Hunter while Marcus Lattimore’s future with the team remained unknown, according to Rob Gloster of Bloomberg.com.

The career backup is the only running back currently under contract besides Carlos Hyde. He missed all of 2014 with an ACL tear suffered in training camp.

Hunter’s fantasy value in 2015 will be limited to whatever change-of-pace opportunities he gets. He’s worth a bench spot in only the deepest leagues.

Stevie Johnson, WR

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It’s safe to assume San Francisco expected more out of Johnson when it traded a conditional third-round pick to Buffalo for his services in 2014.

Johnson joined the parade of 49ers offensive disappointments by starting just one game and compiling a measly 435 yards receiving, marking his lowest total since his 2010 bust-out season, according to Pro Football Reference.

San Francisco will likely ask him to restructure the $12.15 million he’s due over the next two seasons, according to The Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows.

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That possibility likely will be broached ... @GavDoggDialogue: chances #49ers WR Stevie Johnson restructures?

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) February 20, 2015

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Assuming Michael Crabtree leaves via free agency, Johnson is San Francisco’s presumptive No. 2 wide receiver, per Barrows.

But Johnson is nothing more than a reserve for fantasy purposes until he returns to his 1,000-yard receiving form.

Vernon Davis, TE

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Officials changed the status of the search for Davis’ game from rescue to recovery about halfway through 2014.

The Pro Bowler’s unquestionable TE1-worthy production nosedived from 156 fantasy points in 2013 (ranked second on ESPN.com) to 30 in 2014 (ranked 40th on ESPN.com). Davis scored 30 in one game against the Arizona Cardinals in 2013.

One game!

It marked the worst season in Davis’ otherwise prolific nine-year career, according to Pro Football Reference.

Trent Baalke left no doubt Davis will return to play out the final year of his contract, according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area:

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It was an off year. He realizes [that]. The great thing about Vernon, he understands. He’s been in this business long enough and he’s worked hard enough, he understands where his level of play is and he still believes that he can have some great years ahead of him – as do we. And we look forward to having him a part of those.

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Davis will be a great value pick if he’s available in the mid-to-late rounds of your 2015 fantasy draft. Anything higher would be a tremendous risk given his game’s descent in 2014.

Carlos Hyde, RB

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Hyde’s fantasy value is all potential entering his second NFL season. Jim Tomsula said he likes what he sees in the 2013 second-rounder from Ohio State, according to Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal: "Carlos Hyde's a heck of a football player. You've seen it in college, and you've seen it translate to the pro field. You've seen the guy run, his vision, he can plant, he can redirect. I like his speed, I like his burst. I'm really excited about Carlos Hyde."

Hyde’s possibilities in 2015 depend on whether or not Frank Gore re-signs. Trent Baalke said San Francisco wants the Pro Bowler back, according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.

If Gore returns, Hyde’s fantasy prospects for 2015 are severely limited given the impending timeshare.

If Gore leaves, Hyde could be a top-10 fantasy running back in 2015 behind the league’s third-ranked run-blocking offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus.

Guard Mike Iupati’s potential departure via free agency would be a blow to the offensive line’s continuity, especially because CEO Jed York is already calling for Geep Chryst and company to run more, according to Matt Maiocco.

Hyde’s greatest value is in dynasty and keeper leagues at this point.

Michael Crabtree, WR

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Crabtree entered 2014 fully recovered from his Achilles tear and ready to produce in a contract year, according to Maiocco.

“I was fast enough to be on the field [in 2013]. But I wasn't me," Crabtree said. "It's going to be an exciting year. I can't wait to get out there.”

Unfortunately for Crabtree owners who drafted him 20th among wide receivers on average—according to ESPN.com—his 2014 results failed to meet the hype. The 2009 first-rounder out of Texas Tech finished with 68 catches for 698 yards and four touchdowns, his worst full season since his rookie year, according to Pro Football Reference.

His 50th-ranked fantasy performance—5.4 points per game, according to ESPN.com—and 95th-ranked wide receiver grade—according to Pro Football Focus—left much to be desired in a year Crabtree hoped to attract elite money.

Crabtree showed frustration with the 49ers by removing all references to them from his Twitter account, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.

Yet, Trent Baalke said he’s still working with Crabtree’s agent, according to Barrows on Twitter:

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Baalke said he plans to meet with Michael Crabtree's agent this week. Crabtree one of several prominent #49ers headed for free agency.

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) February 18, 2015

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There’s no doubt San Francisco’s passing game struggled in 2014, ranking 30th, according to Pro Football Reference. Whether the 49ers struggled because of Crabtree’s diminished performance or vice versa is yet to be determined.

Don’t peg the upcoming free agent any higher than a flex for 2015 no matter where he ends up.

Anquan Boldin, WR

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Boldin quietly posted his seventh 1,000-yard season in 12 years, according to Pro Football Reference. He finished 22nd in fantasy scoring among wide receivers—a fine value pick for owners that drafted him 31st on average, according to ESPN.com.

The Pro Bowler told Mindi Bach of CSN Bay Area he is optimistic about the new regime in San Francisco. “I've known Geep for a long time," he said. "He was actually my quarterbacks coach in Arizona my rookie year. He's a great football mind. I think he can bring a spark to the offense.”

Boldin hasn’t missed a start since joining the 49ers in 2013. His game looks strong entering his 13th season—he turns 35 in October. Pro Football Focus graded him 18th among wide receivers in 2014.

Count on Boldin to provide solid WR2 production in 2015.

Frank Gore, RB

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Observers vigilantly await Gore’s fantasy demise, but the leading rusher in franchise history just keeps those legs churning. He wrapped up his eighth season with 250-plus carries and 1,000-plus yards in 2014, per Pro Football Reference.

San Francisco traded up six spots to snag Carlos Hyde at No. 57 in 2014. Trent Baalke said, “Hyde runs our style of offense very well,” according to Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.

If Hyde is Gore’s heir apparent, the veteran’s performance kept the rookie sidelined more often than not in his contract year. Yet the 49ers haven’t shown much interest in the unrestricted free agent, according to Gore’s post on Instagram (h/t CSN Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco): “I know the fans love me but I need to know if the management does but I'm going to love my fans no matter what.”

Baalke said the post initiated a conversation, according to Maiocco:

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That’s why we talked. That’s the exact [reason]. We reached out. He reached out back. He wasn’t expecting it to take legs like it did. Nor were we. He didn’t have any intentions by it and he made that very clear in our conversations.

It’s at the same place it was the last time we talked. We’re still working on it. It’s not something that’s going to get done yesterday. It’ll take some time to resolve. It’s our intention to have Frank back.

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Gore’s best chance to maximize his contract is sticking with San Francisco, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com: “Heard Frank Gore is seeking $4 million a year on a new deal—people around the league believe his best (only?) shot to get that is back with San Francisco."

The $4 million range would put Gore at the bottom of the top 15 salaries for running backs, according to Over the Cap. It’s not an exorbitant request despite Gore’s age—32 in May—but the 49ers have just $3.8 million available currently.

Thus, negotiations might push right up until the March 10 deadline.

Gore is still a viable feature back whether he stays in San Francisco or tests the open market. He should remain a solid RB2/flex in 2015.

Colin Kaepernick, QB

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Kaepernick’s expectations soared heading into 2014 fantasy drafts with owners taking him seventh among quarterbacks on average, according to ESPN.com. He came off the board ahead of Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan heading into his second season as a full-time starter.

Things didn’t work out.

Kaepernick finished 17th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, according to ESPN.com. His 86.4 passer rating ranked lowest in his career as a starter; he also had 10 interceptions and 52 sacks, according to Pro Football Reference.

Jed York feels Jim Tomsula needs to encourage the quarterback to use his feet in 2015, according to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle: "How many quarterbacks in this league can run 90 yards for a touchdown? I can’t think of many. But you’ve got to put Kap in a position where he can make those plays. And put Kap in a position where we can run the ball."

Kaepernick is coming off his best season as a rusher with career highs in carries (104) and yards (639), according to Pro Football Reference. He ranked second among quarterbacks in rushing yards behind only Wilson (849).

Running with the ball was his only positive attribute in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.

Kurt Warner said Kaepernick is progressing in the other aspects of his game during offseason training at his EXOS academy, according to the San Jose Mercury News’ Jim Purdy via his Bay Area News Group blog:

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We’re trying to teach him...what ‘normal’ looks like for a quarterback. Not an athletic quarterback. Not a guy that you’ve thrown in there and allowed to live on his athletic ability. It’s about getting balanced and being in a situation where your technique is so good, that it drives how you throw the football. So we’re starting there.

Then the second part is going to be seeing how far we can push him from a mental standpoint, to understand the whole game. And I’ve been very impressed so far with what he knows mentally. We’ve been on the [chalk]board and we’ve talked about it. Been very pleased with where he is at. But you know, the whole thing is, you have to be able to decipher what 22 guys are doing, or at least 11 guys on the other side, in three seconds, know where to go with the football, know how to get there and technique-wise, be able to get it there. So we’re going to push the envelope in all those areas and see how far we can get him.

But it still starts with technique. Because if you don’t have technique, you’ll never have consistency. And then from there, we’ll go to the mental side of it and see how far we can push the envelope and how good he can be.

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Kaepernick’s mental-toughness quotient dipped in a recent Twitter spat (NSFW) with a random troll. Hopefully, that’s the type of thing he’ll continue to work on with Warner and others until players and coaches officially reconvene in April.

The hype surrounding Kaepernick’s immense talent will hoist him among the top 10 quarterbacks drafted come late summer. His 2015 owners will overpay considering the potholes ahead for a first-time head coach and offensive coordinator.

Plus there’s increased physical risk when running the read-option offense. That’s exactly what the new regime is promoting, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.

Correction: increased physical risk to anyone not named Russell Wilson.

Kaepernick should not be a QB1 unless you play in a deep league or he falls in your draft.