UFC 184 Rousey vs. Zingano: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
This coming weekend is something of a celebration for women's mixed martial arts, with UFC 184 featuring an all-female main and co-main event for the first time in the organisation's history—not to mention Invicta FC 11 taking place Friday.
The appeal of UFC 184 may have taken a slight hit with the loss of Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort for the middleweight title, but Saturday night's card from the Staples Center still has plenty to offer both hardcores and casuals alike.
The main event features the long-awaited contest between Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano for the UFC women's bantamweight title. We can also look forward to Holly Holm making her UFC debut against The Ultimate Fighter veteran Raquel Pennington, Jake Ellenberger vs. Josh Koscheck, Alan Jouban vs. Richard Walsh and Tony Ferguson vs. Gleison Tibau.
As ever, Bleacher Report MMA is on hand to guide you through this weekend's main attraction. Read on for the views of Scott Harris, Craig Amos, Riley Kontek, Sean Smith and yours truly, James MacDonald.
2015 Staff Records
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None of us fared well at UFC Fight 61. Out of 30 total picks, the prediction team got a grand total of two correct. The most disappointed of us all is undoubtedly Scott Harris. His unorthodox prediction style relies on these upset-heavy events, so he'll be kicking himself for not taking advantage.
Riley Kontek remains in the top spot, holding a narrow lead over me and Sean Smith. Harris is in fourth place, slightly ahead of the out-of-form Craig Amos.
Here are the current records:
Kontek: 20-10-0
MacDonald: 18-12-0
Smith: 17-13-0
Harris: 16-14-0
Amos: 15-15-0
Tony Ferguson vs. Gleison Tibau
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Amos
This is a tough one to call, to be sure. Ferguson probably owns a striking advantage, while Tibau has the takedowns and grappling. Both men have looked good lately, but I've been more impressed with Tibau. I'll say he earns the upset win to kick off the main card.
Tibau, unanimous decision
MacDonald
I pick against Tibau so often, and I usually get burned for it. You'd think I'd have learned my lesson by now, but nope. Ferguson is the more technical fighter and possesses more weapons. I'm looking for him to make a statement by stopping the veteran Tibau.
Ferguson, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
This is my shakiest pick of the night. If this was some kind of neutral skills challenge, I'd go with Ferguson every time. But Tibau is like your favorite hot dog stand: He does one thing, and he does it right, every time. If you can stop it, great. If not, I hope you like hot dogs. Screw it, I'm going with Tibau.
Tibau, unanimous decision
Kontek
Can Ferguson break into the next level in the UFC lightweight division? That is a question that will be answered here. Given his good counter-wrestling and superior boxing, it appears Tibau is tailor-made for him. Tibau can surprise anybody with his size, strength and grit, but Ferguson is hitting a stride that won't let him be denied.
Ferguson, unanimous decision
Smith
With four straight wins, Ferguson is ready to take that step into lightweight title contention. Tibau can grind and make this one close, much like Danny Castillo did against Ferguson at UFC 177, but El Cucuy is the better fighter. No win over Tibau comes easy, but Ferguson should do enough off his back and keep this standing long enough to get the nod on the scorecards.
Ferguson, unanimous decision
Alan Jouban vs. Richard Walsh
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Amos
Both men enter this fight after finding themselves on the wrong end of some questionable judging, which makes this an ideal rebound scenario for both. Problem is, one guy will find himself buried even deeper. That will be Walsh, who won't be able to keep up with Jouban on the feet.
Jouban, TKO, Rd.2
MacDonald
This is a decent scrap. Jouban is more technical than the rugged Walsh, so I'm inclined to give him the edge if the bout remains on the feet. However, I wouldn't be shocked if Walsh pulled off the minor upset.
Jouban, unanimous decision
Harris
I like Jouban's muay thai to carry the day here. Walsh is a bruiser, but Jouban can tire him out and then outpoint him with combinations, punctuated by stiff kicks. No robbery this time.
Jouban, unanimous decision
Kontek
I am surprised at how good Jouban has looked recently. He has really improved from a couple of years ago and is exciting at that. Walsh's best chance of winning here is grinding away at the striker, but if Warlley Alves struggled with Jouban, Walsh isn't going to have a great time either.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
While both Jouban and Walsh are 1-1 inside the Octagon, Jouban has looked much better than the Australian. A knockout win over Seth Baczynski is no small accomplishment, and that was the result of Jouban's debut. He has a much higher ceiling than Walsh and will show it Saturday.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 1
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Jake Ellenberger vs. Josh Koscheck
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Amos
When choosing between two fighters who have each dropped three straight bouts, I'm inclined to side with the younger guy coming off the shorter layoff, with fewer knockouts against. That's Ellenberger here, so he gets my support, though it's more by default than a strong belief that he's a top-tier welterweight.
Ellenberger, KO, Rd. 1
MacDonald
Neither man has set the MMA world alight recently, but Ellenberger should have the edge here. He is more relevant than Koscheck, who is returning after a prolonged layoff. It's difficult to know how the TUF Season 1 veteran will look after so long on the sidelines, so Ellenberger is the safer bet.
Ellenberger, KO, Rd. 2
Harris
It's Warm Milk vs. Massage Video here in this battle of welterweights. Every time Ellenberger fights now, I think, "He's better than this. He has to be better." And then he falls flat. But I'm going to keep riding that particular chicken, for better or worse. Koscheck, to me, looks shot, and he will lose this bout, even if by default.
Ellenberger, unanimous decision
Kontek
What happens when both fighters seemingly don't have enough left in the tank? Both guys have been unimpressive lately and have struggled to look good, let alone win. Koscheck's chin has seen better days, and his wrestling will be tough to use against Ellenberger. I don't see this being a compelling fight.
Ellenberger, unanimous decision
Smith
I wouldn't have much faith betting on either of these guys recently. That said, Ellenberger has at least remained active throughout his three-bout skid. Koscheck has not competed in 15 months, and the rust will hurt him in what figures to be the final contest in his MMA career.
Ellenberger, TKO, Rd. 1
Raquel Pennington vs. Holly Holm
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Amos
Pennington is better than her 5-4 record suggests, but Holm is a seasoned striker who has been earmarked for a title shot in the not-too-distant future. The newcomer will make good on her debut if she can stay off the mat and find room to let her hands and feet fly.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
This should be a fun contest. Pennington is infuriatingly inconsistent, but even her best is unlikely to be enough against the debuting Holm. The former boxing standout will stuff her foe's takedown attempts, dominate the striking exchanges and eventually earn the stoppage.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
I'm really hoping Pennington has the stuff to give Holm a good test. That would mean clinch work and, most especially, takedowns. I bet Holm is secretly hoping for this too. As cool as some 18-second KO would be, a true measuring stick would provide a more nourishing kind of affair. Here's guessing Pennington is tough and strong enough to provide it, even if she succumbs in the end.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 3
Kontek
Simple breakdown here: If Pennington can get the strong and athletic Holm to the ground, she can make this a fight. If not, Holm is too good upright to challenge.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 3
Smith
This matchup should give Holm a chance to showcase her striking in her debut. With at least one takedown in all three of her UFC bouts, Pennington will wrestle, but she doesn't have dominating takedowns and does get into brawls. Pennington won't be planning on standing with Holm for 15 minutes, but standing with her for 15 seconds will still be too tough.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 2
Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano
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Amos
Zingano has posted some quality results, but I've seen nothing from her that makes me think she'll be much of a test for Rousey. The champ will keep her undefeated record intact and add another finish to her ledger.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 1
MacDonald
One of the most intriguing elements of this contest is that everything indicates Zingano possesses the kind of personality that will refuse to submit to joint locks. Her will to win is second-to-none. But as we've seen recently, that isn't Rousey's only path to victory. Still, it will be interesting to see what happens if the champ secures the armbar. If the challenger refuses to tap, I expect Rousey to eventually earn the TKO.
Rousey, TKO, Rd. 4
Harris
I won't bury the lead here: This is Rousey's fight, and everyone knows it. But Zingano will provide a couple of those "Oh!" kinds of moments. One of her big clinch knees, which you might recall from the Miesha Tate fight, will get through, and Rousey's head will snap back. Rousey might even feel compelled to say something after like "toughest fight to date," etc. But the ending will be much the same one that we know and love so much.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 3
Kontek
Despite possessing a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Zingano doesn't want to grapple with Rousey. Her best bet is on the feet, where she has good power and aggression. Ronda won't fold, but she will be tested.
Rousey, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
Given her power and grappling prowess, I'll buy that Zingano will be the biggest challenge Rousey has had in MMA. She'll be the one to end Rousey's finishing streak, but she won't be the one to beat the champion. With her improving striking and a few flashy throws, Rousey will retain her belt again.
Rousey, unanimous decision
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