Duke Basketball: Breaking Down Blue Devils' Chances for a No. 1 Seed

Top seed or not top seed. That is the question for Duke.

With a 26-3 record, a No. 5 RPI (according to CBS Sports' Jerry Palm) and nine wins over top 50 teams, the Blue Devils certainly have the kind of resume that would warrant a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They're projected as getting such from various experts, including Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, though that's based on how things sit at this point and don't factor in what will happen over the next two weeks.

And it will be during the final week of the regular season and the ACC tournament where, ultimately, Duke's NCAA tourney seeding will be determined.

Duke hosts Wake Forest (13-16, 5-11) on Wednesday and then travels to rival North Carolina (20-9, 10-6) on Saturday. It can finish no worse than a tie for third in the ACC, and most likely will be the No. 2 or 3 seed in the ACC tournament with its first game Thursday in Greensboro.

There are numerous different scenarios that can play out for Duke over its remaining three to five games before the NCAA tournament field is announced on March 15, with each having its own impact on seeding. We've picked out the six most likely possibilities and broke them down to spell out what it will mean for the Blue Devils' seed.

Scenario 1: Win Out

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The first option is the one that would benefit Duke the most, as beating both Wake Forest and North Carolina and then sweeping through the ACC tournament would pretty much guarantee a No. 1 seed.

It would be especially beneficial if the Blue Devils were to knock off Virginia along the way, likely in the title game, while beating either Notre Dame or Louisville in the semifinals. Another victory over Notre Dame would help negate the earlier loss to the Fighting Irish, while being able to hand likely No. 1 seed Virginia a second loss (it currently only has one) would make them very hard to pass up for a top spot.

And by beating Virginia, Duke could slide from being No. 1 in the South Region—with a regional in Houston—to the top team in the East, which plays its regional in Syracuse, New York.

Projected seed: No. 1

Scenario 2: Win Remaining Regular-Season Games, Lose in ACC Final

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Assuming the Blue Devils can make the ACC final, they would take a 13-game win streak into that championship. A run like that, which would include five or six wins over top 30 RPI teams, would make losing in the ACC title game not that damaging.

The conventional wisdom is that, after Kentucky and Virginia, there are six teams fighting for the remaining two No. 1 seeds. Besides Duke, there is Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova and Wisconsin, and those would be who the Blue Devils would be measured against for a top seed.

If all five were to win their conference tournaments, Duke would be at a severe disadvantage and figures to get leapfrogged by at least two of them, most likely Villanova and Wisconsin (despite a head-to-head win over the Badgers in Madison during nonconference play). Still, the likelihood that all of them would follow up regular-season titles with conference tourney crowns is unlikely, as in 2014 conference champs Arizona, Kansas, Michigan and Villanova all failed to add a tournament title.

A more plausible scenario that includes a Duke loss in the final, and it dropping off the top line, would be if that loss came to a team other than Virginia. Falling to Louisville, North Carolina or someone even lower seeded in the ACC tourney would look bad, and could impact the final NCAA seeding.

Projected seed: No. 1

Scenario 3: Win Remaining Regular-Season Games, Lose Prior to ACC Final

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With the competition that is battling for the unclaimed No. 1 seeds, the NCAA tournament selection committee is going to be looking for reasons to not put certain teams on the top line as much as make a case for why they're deserving of being first. Failing to make a conference tournament title game would stand out when lining up relatively similar resumes.

Villanova was considered the fifth-best team in the 2014 field, a ranking that was heavily influenced by the Wildcats slipping up in the Big East tournament and losing to eighth-seeded Seton Hall in the quarterfinals. If Duke was to meet a similar fate in the ACC tourney, an equivalent seeding would come to the Blue Devils in two weeks.

This could be a quarterfinal or semifinal loss, each resulting in the same drop in seeding. And considering there's a good chance Duke could face any of the three teams (Duke, Miami, North Carolina State) it has lost to this season, falling prior to the final is very likely.

Projected seed: No. 2

Scenario 4: Split Regular-Season Games, Win ACC Tournament

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For this and the subsequent scenarios that involve a regular-season loss, we're projecting that would come Saturday at North Carolina. Duke had to rallied from 10 down with less than three minutes remaining to force overtime in order to beat the Tar Heels at home, so it's not hard to believe it could fall in Chapel Hill.

If Duke were to drop Wednesday's game against Wake Forest, though, that would all but eliminate the Blue Devils from getting a No. 1 seed and could put them in jeopardy of dropping to a No. 3 seed depending on what happens after that.

But let's stick with the win-then-lose scenario for Duke. This would put it at a disadvantage against the other No. 1 seed candidates heading into conference tournament play, but a rebound effort that's capped with an ACC tourney title would rectify much of that. Knocking off Virginia in the process would only further the Devils' cause.

Projected seed: No. 1

Scenario 5: Split Regular-Season Games, Lose in ACC Title Game

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Among the top teams in the country, only Kentucky could withstand two losses between now and March 15 and remain a No. 1 seed. Virginia possibly could, but it's not a given.

So with that in mind, if Duke were to fall to North Carolina and then again in the ACC final, that would mean a 2-2 record over its final four games. That kind of recent performance will be hard for the selection committee to ignore, especially if the other top seed candidates have conference tournament titles to help their causes.

The only way the Blue Devils still get a No. 1 seed with two more losses would be if the other potential top seeds collectively falter over these final games. If that happens, the Devils' regular-season body of work comes into play more and puts them over the edge.

But that's a very unlikely scenario, and what's more probable is Duke slips down a line.

Projected seed: No. 2

Scenario 6: Split Regular-Season Games, Lose Prior to ACC Title Game

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As the previous slide indicated, two losses in the final two weeks of play won't bode well for Duke's case to be a top seed. It will be even worse if those defeats come in a shorter duration, which would happen if the Blue Devils were to lose in the ACC quarterfinals or semifinals.

The North Carolina loss in the regular-season finale wouldn't factor in as much as falling early in the ACC tourney, especially if it comes to a lower-seeded opponent. Duke figures to be No. 2 or 3, and if it were to fall to a sixth- or seventh-seeded team (one that might not even be a definite NCAA tournament team) that would be a major black mark on its resume.

Duke figures to still be solid as a No. 2 seed, even with multiple losses down the stretch, though the quality of the opponent it would fall to in the ACC tourney could make dropping down to the third line somewhat in play.

Projected seed: No. 2

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.