Why 2015 Is Make-or-Break Time for Joe Philbin as Dolphins Head Coach

"Are we better off now than we were four years ago?"

It's a question that often gets thrown around a lot during election season, as Presidential candidates try to convince the American public that the old guard needs to be replaced with a new vision. 

It's also a question that could be asked of Miami Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin. Owner Stephen Ross should be asking himself that question following the 2015 season, and the answer could depend on whether or not the Dolphins make dramatic improvements between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Year	Coach	Record	Win %
2009	Sparano	7-9	.438
2010	Sparano	7-9	.438
2011	Sparano/Bowles	6-10	.375
2012	Philbin	7-9	.438
2013	Philbin	8-8	.500
2014	Philbin	8-8	.500

Think of this: in the three years before Philbin arrived, the Dolphins went 20-28 without a playoff appearance. In the three years since then, their record is 23-25 without a playoff appearance.

Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells famously said, "You are what your record says you are." The difference in the Dolphins' record from 2009-2011 and 2012-2014 says all you need to know about the Dolphins: any improvements they have made have been minor and not significant enough to make the kind of difference the Dolphins need in order to get to the postseason.

Philbin's inability to get the Dolphins over the hump has caused some Dolphins fans to enter the five stages of grief, beginning with stage 1: denial. 

Others, however, don't necessarily see it that way.

"The arrow's been up for the last two or three years," ESPN analyst Bill Polian said at the scouting combine, according to Chris Perkins of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "They're not far away. So if you're a Dolphins fan, things are looking up from my perspective. ... And I've said this numerous times: I think Joe Philbin's done a great coaching job, he and his staff."

Year	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
2012	282	484	58.3	3294	6.8	12	13	76.1
2013	355	588	60.4	3913	6.7	24	17	81.7
2014	392	590	66.4	4045	6.9	27	12	92.8
Total	1029	1662	61.9	11252	6.8	63	42	84.0

They have succeeded in aiding along the development of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has grown in the position in each of his first three years in the league from both a statistical and a skill perspective. 

Where they have not succeeded, however, is helping to establish an identity on either offense or defense. Right now, their identity on defense is the pass-rushing ability of defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon and the ball skills of Brent Grimes. That's it.

On offense, it's even worse, where the identity is comparable to Jekyll and Hyde—split—and based completely on whether or not Tannehill can hold it together from week to week. They have established a dink-and-dunk identity under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, but there are still concerns as to how effective that style of offense can be with Tannehill as its triggerman.

But beyond simply establishing an identity, which is as much the responsibility of Philbin as it is the responsibility of general manager Dennis Hickey, Philbin must also improve as a decision-maker on the field. Just a few examples:

• 2013, Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: Trailing by three points, the Dolphins had just picked up a 46-yard gain on a pass to Brandon Gibson; Philbin told Tannehill to spike the ball with a minute remaining instead of running a play. The Ravens regrouped and sacked Tannehill on the next play, then kicker Caleb Sturgis missed the tying field goal.
• 2013, Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers: Ahead by three points, the Dolphins went into their prevent defense for the Panthers' final drive, which began with 4:13 in the fourth quarter. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton went 5-of-7 for 44 yards and a touchdown, also adding 16 rushing yards on two carries.
• 2014, Week 6 vs. Green Bay Packers: Ahead by four points with roughly 4:00 remaining in the game, the Dolphins threw the ball several times and essentially gave the Packers enough time to march down the field for the game-winning touchdown with seconds remaining.

There are more where that came from, but the overall problem with Philbin is that he is too aggressive when he needs to be conservative, and too conservative at times where some aggressive play calls would help.

Head coaches are characteristically unstable in their job security, but if Philbin wants to return for a second term (or at least for a fifth year) as head coach, he has roughly 10 months to prove that he has learned a lot in his first three years as an NFL coach, and also to apply what he has learned in an effective way to help the Dolphins win more games. 

The Dolphins have given their fans some hope at times, but much like Barack Obama's 2012 Presidential Campaign, it's time for Philbin to give them change they can believe in.