The Secret Weapon for Title Contenders in 2015 NCAA Tournament
Information on college basketball can come from many sources: cable TV, those 24/7 IV drips of analytics, bracketology websites and rankings—it seems like we’re far past a time for keeping secrets in the sport.
But they hover on benches, in numbers, even within a particular star’s game. Call them “secret weapons.”
We'll take a look at 10 top NCAA tournament contenders, why they deserve mention in the first place and what nugget of value should be considered as (no secret here) March approaches.
Arizona: T.J. McConnell's Game Control
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Why the Wildcats are contenders: The Wildcats lost young talent to the NBA but have stayed in the hunt with sturdy experience. Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski are a couple of three-year starters.
The secret weapon: T.J. McConnell has the ability to control the game at both ends of the floor and shoot effectively. Point guard play is inherently critical, and McConnell's feel of his obligations, and how to get others involved, will set Arizona's pulse.
Why it's dangerous: McConnell could be a secret weapon on shooting alone. He's averaging only 11.6 points in Pac-12 play but is shooting a wildly efficient 55.6 percent. Yet it’s his ball-handling and defense that will determine Arizona's yearly quest to get back to a Final Four.
His ratio of three assists to one turnover is 11th nationally. And the scrappy guard from Pittsburgh is a pretty good extension of coach Sean Miller on the floor.
Gonzaga: Przemek Karnowski's Inside Presence
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Why the Zags are contenders: They only have one loss (and it took Arizona an overtime at home), a stacked and experienced guard line and a Kentucky transfer, Kyle Wiltjer, who has found a refreshing home in the Pacific Northwest.
The secret weapon: Przemek Karnowski is a big presence on the pick-and-roll and a viable option inside to force extra help.
Why it's dangerous: Like last year, he’s only the Zags’ fourth-best scorer (10.6 ppg). But just look at his recent 14-point, seven-rebound performance at Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga rallied from a 17-point deficit because it fed him inside, and the finger-rollin’ man from Poland was especially assertive against his team’s biggest West Coast Conference rival.
GU assistant Tommy Lloyd, who was in Germany for the U17 World Championships to watch Kevin Pangos, discovered the 7'1" center. Now Pangos and Karnowski are a lethal pick-and-roll combo. And if the Polish import is a threat, teams must sag to guard him—and that opens up shots for Pangos and a variety of skilled slashers.
Virginia: The Return of Justin Anderson
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Why the Cavaliers are contenders: They only one have loss and a balanced team that isn’t just a defensive consideration this year.
The secret weapon: Justin Anderson’s return will be one of the more intriguing NCAA tournament storylines in the early stages. The junior guard's absence gives the Cavs a chance to develop extra players, but of course there's that concern about rolling him back into the mix.
Why it's dangerous: Granted, the Hoos haven’t faced a tough schedule since the 6’6’’ guard fractured a finger (requiring surgery) Feb. 7: three home games and a couple so-so teams on the road.
But Anderson’s extended absence gives coach Tony Bennett a chance to tinker with his team and then likely bring back a clutch game-changer who is shooting nearly 50 percent from three-point range. Anderson has been an X-factor since the beginning of the season, but the still-undetermined length of his absence will leave fans, media and opponents guessing about the big picture for a while longer.
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Wisconsin: Point Guard Play
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Why the Badgers are contenders: Wisconsin has National Player of the Year candidate Frank Kaminsky, and Sam Dekker is a “twin tower” complement who’s developed into a first-team Big Ten guy.
The secret weapon: Bronson Koenig has averaged 12.6 points per game and made nearly 50 percent of his threes since taking over for injured Traevon Jackson at the point Jan. 11. After losing a key guy to a damaged foot, Wisconsin hasn't (wait for it...) lost a step.
Why it's dangerous: Jackson’s surgically repaired foot (stress fracture) is close to being ready. But he may be able to ease into playing shape, as Koenig has fared well and hasn’t cost the Badgers much ground.
Utah: The 'Forgotten' Jordan Loveridge
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Why the Utes are contenders: They aren’t getting much major title hype, despite hovering around the top of the Pac-12 race with Arizona. That’s just the way they’d like it with a star (but an awfully quiet one) in Delon Wright and a no-nonsense head coach in Larry Krystkowiak.
The secret weapon: Utah needs a healthy Jordan Loveridge to get on the right track. He's had an injury-laden season with some recent stretches of atypically spotty shooting.
Why it's dangerous: Go figure, Krystkowiak landed the now-junior as his first big recruit, and Loveridge was the keystone of a major rebuild. Now, he’s hardly mentioned because of Wright and freshman big man Jakob Poeltl from the far-flung hoops land known as Austria. Loveridge was Utah’s second-best scorer and top rebounder last year but had a seven-game stretch of missed games because of knee surgery.
He still looks off at times, but the versatile 6'6" forward is still shooting a career-best 44.2 percent from three.
Duke: Quinn Cook Figuring It Out
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Why the Blue Devils are contenders: They have coaching (Mike Krzyzewski), a superb freshman (Jahlil Okafor) and a big boost of confidence from a major rally against North Carolina (plus significant road wins at Wisconsin and Virginia).
The secret weapon: Senior Quinn Cook seems to be coming into his own in the late stages of his Duke career. Timely shooting, leadership and slap-the-floor Dukie defense on the guard line have his team seemingly recovered from a couple of early-conference hiccups.
Why it's dangerous: Cook is in a unique spot that says something about Duke, him and college basketball as a whole: He’s the lone scholarship senior.
He’s been a polarizing figure, if only because his talent and consistency haven’t always converged. But these days the guard is insatiable. Leading up to the February 25 game with Virginia Tech, Cook played 164 of a possible 165 minutes in a four-game stretch. He averaged 23 points and nearly four rebounds and three assists per game in that span.
He played all 45 minutes in the overtime win over North Carolina and hit a big basket that could be a new starting point of his Blue Devils career. Then he hit the game-clinching three in overtime against Virginia Tech.
North Carolina: Brice Johnson's Force, Minus Foul Trouble
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Why the Tar Heels are contenders: They were good enough to get a nine-point lead at Duke with two-and-a-half minutes left. A poor shooting group, UNC recovers by being in the top five nationally by KenPom.com in offensive rebounding percentage. UNC chucks, but it also chases.
The secret weapon: Brice Johnson is the bellwether. Foul trouble is a particularly noteworthy topic, and UNC needs him in the game and on the glass.
Why it's dangerous: He played 24 choppy minutes at home February 24 (missing five of his six shots), and UNC was blown out at home. He missed much of the recent overtime game against Duke because of foul trouble (limited to 24 minutes) and...you guessed it: another defeat. But he also had 18 points and 12 rebounds. The 6'9" junior, along with fellow forward Kennedy Meeks, is the top rebounder who will keep the clunky-shooting Tar Heels in contention.
Wichita State: 'The Winner' Evan Wessel
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Why the Shockers are contenders: With apologies to Missouri Valley rival Northern Iowa, the edge still has to go to WSU as the best team in that conference. Defense, coaching and experience make the Shockers no shock (sorry, can't resist) to make a deep tournament run.
The secret weapon: Not always a stat-stuffer, Evan Wessel picks his moments and in the big picture is every bit as valuable as Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker.
Why it's dangerous: Wessel has been relatively overlooked for years. He’s a former high school teammate at Wichita (Kansas) Heights of current Kansas standout Perry Ellis. Wessel was part of four state championships (three in hoops, one in football), and coach Gregg Marshall doesn’t need spread or stat sheets to recognize value from a 6'4" junior who averages 4.2 points and 3.3 rebounds.
“When you have a sample size of let's say 85 (games) and it’s 83 positive and two negative, to me that’s a large enough sample size to say this kid's doing something right to affect winning," Marshall said in November, per KWCH.com.
Villanova: 6th Man Josh Hart
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Why the Wildcats are contenders: No team has more wins against the RPI Top 25 (6-1), as the relatively starless Wildcats are succeeding in the undervalued Big East.
The secret weapon: Sixth-man type Josh Hart doesn’t start but plays starter-like minutes and can affect the game in a variety of ways.
Why it's dangerous: Hart only started two of Villanova’s first 28 games but still shines on the charts of team season highs. He’s at times been the best three-point shooter and had another game when he was extra aggressive and went to the foul line 11 times (second-best for Villanova this season).
A little bit of everything is the Nova way heading into March.
Kentucky: Turnover Margin
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Why the Wildcats are contenders: Um…
The secret weapon: Oh, sure, Kentucky looks invincible, but there's one way it can make itself even harder to top. Team turnover margin has actually been a bellwether, especially of late in SEC play.
Why it's dangerous: The Wildcats are particularly special at the defensive end and are ranked 15th nationally in turnover margin (plus-3.4). When they’ve been brought to the wire, it’s often because of a lack of steals.
Kentucky has won five SEC games by eight points or fewer. Take out the turnover margin of the first one (Ole Miss, plus-eight), and John Calipari’s squad is actually even with opponents. As postseason (and presumably undefeated) pressure heightens, it would help Kentucky to get a few more steals and transition baskets.
Willie Cauley-Stein is especially valuable at picks—leading the team in steals. In two of those five close SEC games, the 7'0'' forward had no steals and in another produced just one.
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