UFC 184: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC women's 135-pound champion Ronda Rousey takes on No. 1-ranked contender Cat Zingano this Saturday at UFC 184.
The event takes place in Los Angeles and marks the first UFC pay-per-view to feature main and co-main event bouts featuring top female competitors. UFC newcomer Holly Holm will make her debut against Raquel Pennington in the co-main event.
UFC 184 features some of the largest odds you will see this entire year. There may yet be some value on this fight card, but you will have to take some serious risks.
After getting back on track at UFC Fight Night 60, my main card picks took a hit once again during the upset-laden UFC Fight Night 61 card. It moved my main card prediction tally to 17-13 for 2015, so I'm barely keeping my head above the water.
Let's try to get back on track with a lot of chalk at UFC 184.
Here is who holds the value in Los Angeles.
Tony Ferguson (-220) vs. Gleison Tibau (+180)
1 of 5
The card opens with a fun lightweight battle between two fighters who could find their way into the Top 15 with a win.
Tony Ferguson and Gleison Tibau are both on win streaks. Ferguson is a talented finisher with a lot of upside, and Tibau is one of the UFC's longest-tenured lightweights.
Tibau will need to outgrapple Ferguson to win, but he will have trouble getting to the mat. This is a bad stylistic matchup for the Brazilian. Ferguson's length will make it difficult for Tibau to land strikes and close the distance for takedowns.
Ferguson should win this fight, and at minus-220 there is no reason you shouldn't take him this weekend. Tibau has struggled with similar fighters throughout his UFC career. Tibau can finish, but more often than not he takes it to the scorecards. This gives Ferguson a lot of time to score points.
Prediction: Ferguson defeats Tibau by unanimous decision.
The Play: Take Ferguson all day.
Alan Jouban (-450) vs. Richard Walsh (+360)
2 of 5
This is a showcase fight for Alan Jouban. The matchup is firmly in his favor.
Walsh will struggle with Jouban's athleticism and striking. He isn't worth a play. But is Jouban?
At minus-450, the odds are steep and do not really hold value. If you want to play Jouban, it is best to find a high-percentage two-, three- or even four-fight parlay to include him in. That is the best way to have him pay off for you this weekend.
Or find a prop bet on Jouban finishing this fight.
There isn't value for you in a straight-up bet. Jouban should win easily.
Prediction: Jouban defeats Walsh by TKO in the first round.
The Play: Only take Jouban in a parlay or prop bet, not straight up.
Jake Ellenberger (-225) vs. Josh Koscheck (+185)
3 of 5
This is quality matchmaking on behalf of Joe Silva and the UFC. Koscheck and Ellenberger are similar fighters in similar spots on the roster.
They are both explosive wrestlers who love to strike because they have big knockout power, but both are on losing strikes to the upper echelon of the division. While they may be fighting for their jobs this Saturday, the loser should remain on the roster because the level of their opposition has been so high.
I favor Ellenberger by knockout. He has been more active, and despite the losses, we have seen improvements in his game in each fight. Koscheck has been away for a long time. The last time we saw him in November 2013, he looked well past his prime as a fighter.
I would not feel comfortable taking Koscheck in any sort of manner here, but Ellenberger is worth a play at the current odds.
Prediction: Ellenberger defeats Koscheck by KO in the second round.
The Play: Ellenberger is worth the odds you get.
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Raquel Pennington (+600) vs. Holly Holm (-900)
4 of 5
At plus-600, I would love to tell you take to Pennington, but I can't.
Those odds are not only tempting because of the size, but because we know next to nothing about Holm's grappling ability. If she is a novice, then Pennington can take her down and win with relative ease. However, Holm has been training at Jackson's MMA for several years. I have to believe she has some ability in that department.
More importantly, Pennington's style forces me to advise against taking a chance on her. She likes to come forward and brawl. That is a terrible way to fight Holm.
Holm's boxing will be on full display. She finishes Pennington for a debut with a lot of impact.
Prediction: Holm defeats Pennington by TKO in the first round.
The Play: There is no value here.
Ronda Rousey (-900) vs. Cat Zingano (+600)
5 of 5
The odds are the same for the co-main and main event at UFC 184, and there is no value on either fight.
Zingano is the best fighter Rousey has ever faced, and I can legitimately see a path to victory for her. If she gets her hand raised as the new champion, I would not be utterly shocked. I do not expect it to happen, but I wouldn't feel it to be a monster upset.
Simply put, Rousey is just too good to gamble on Zingano.
The champ will come in and never let Zingano get into a groove. She finishes her before this even becomes a fight. Zingano will be just the next victim for the most dominant champion in MMA today.
This is all Rousey, and there is no value with these odds.
Prediction: Rousey defeats Zingano via submission in the first round.
The Play: There is no value.
Just-for-Fun Full-Card Parlay: Alexander Torres, James Krause, Derrick Lewis, Tim Means, Norifumi Yamamoto, Mark Munoz, Tony Ferguson, Alan Jouban, Jake Ellenberger, Holly Holm, Ronda Rousey
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