Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 5 Predictions for UCL 2nd Leg

Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed a dominant evening at the BayArena on Wednesday, securing a 1-0 victory over Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their round-of-16 Champions League tie. 

After a difficult run in the Bundesliga—Leverkusen had won just one of their last six games and two of their last 10 heading into Wednesday's European encounter—the performance put together by Roger Schmidt's men was both encouraging and surprising.

Indeed, the hosts, utilising a method based around intense pressing and a high tempo, unsettled Diego Simeone's men and edged the physical battle that Atleti are so accustomed to controlling. 

Now, the tie heads to the Vicente Calderon delicately poised, with both teams eyeing a quarter-final place.

Across the following slides, we make five predictions for the second leg, which is set to be played in the Spanish capital on March 17.

Koke's Return Will Change the Midfield Dynamic

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Atletico Madrid's Koke hasn't been seen since the Madrid derby in early February, sidelined with a hamstring injury he sustained during his side's emphatic victory over their cross-town rivals. 

Tellingly, since the midfielder's injury, Atleti have lost two of their three games, highlighting the 23-year-old's value to Los Colchoneros. 

Like in the damaging 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo in Galicia, Atletico struggled to establish any sense of control in midfield against Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday, lacking Koke's technical ability, passing vision and industrious style in the face of the home side's intense pressing.

When the teams reconvene at the Vicente Calderon on March 17, Diego Simeone's central playmaker is likely to be fit again and in the lineup, which should help Atleti balance the midfield battle and assert themselves on the contest to a greater extent.

Omer Toprak's Return Will Bolster Bayer Leverkusen's Defence

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Despite the presence of the confident and talented Kyriakos Papadopoulos in Bayer Leverkusen's squad, manager Roger Schmidt has preferred to utilise Omer Toprak and Emir Spahic as his centre-back pairing this season. 

But due to Toprak's suspension for Wednesday's first leg, the hosts were forced to switch to the pairing of Papadopoulos and Spahic that conceded five goals to Wolfsburg less than two weeks earlier. 

Of course, that didn't prove to be a problem at the BayArena, with that duo, for the most part, quelling Atletico's Mario Mandzukic and Antoine Griezmann. Papadopoulos' impact was also felt higher up the pitch, as he pushed into the midfield to enhance his team's high press. 

However, the dynamic between these teams will be different at the Vicente Calderon; Leverkusen are unlikely to enjoy the same dominance in general play that was seen during the first leg. 

Thus, it's likely the German outfit will face considerably more pressure in Madrid, with Simeone undoubtedly keen to reverse the theme seen on Wednesday. 

Should Los Colchoneros achieve a greater sense of control, Toprak's steady presence will be important for the visitors, given that Papadopoulos's aggressive approach and inclination to move forward would be something the Spanish champions would look to expose.

Diego Simeone Will Alter Atletico's Approach Not the Formation

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When Atletico Madrid lose in the fashion they did on Wednesday, one of the conclusions often reached is that Diego Simeone's 4-4-2 formation left Atleti short of numbers in midfield. 

Of course, there is a considerable degree of logic to such a stance, particularly after witnessing Simeone's men regularly battling just to maintain possession and get out of their own half at the BayArena on Wednesday.

But the Atletico manager is likely to stick with his trusted system—he rarely deviates too far from his trademark formation—and instead focus on his team's approach. 

After sitting quite deep in the first leg in North Rhine-Westphalia and suffering at the hands of Leverkusen's press, the Spanish outfit will likely look to reverse that pressure and enforce their own high press on Roger Schmidt's side.

Indeed, since the loss of Diego Costa and the signing of the less mobile Mario Mandzukic, pushing high and stifling their opponents in their own half has been Atleti's strong suit at home this season. 

Additionally, Simeone's 4-4-2 with two forwards up front allows Los Colchoneros to press with greater effect.

Therefore, don't expect a change in formation at the Vicente Calderon; expect Atletico to simply change their approach and push far higher up from the opening whistle.

Bayer Leverkusen Won't Beat Atletico Madrid at Their Own Game Again

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Atletico Madrid were beaten at their own game by Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday. It was as simple as that. 

The hosts harassed their visitors, clattered into them and engulfed them in their own half. In short, Atletico were on the receiving end of their own methods. (We broke it all down after the match here). 

But under Diego Simeone, Atletico very rarely make the same mistakes twice. Instead, they watch, learn and adapt. 

Perhaps a little surprised by how ferociously intense Bayer Leverkusen were in the first leg, expect the Spanish champions to harness the full extent of their renowned fire when the tie shifts to the Vicente Calderon.

They won't be beaten at their own game again.

It Will Be a Struggle, but Atletico Will Progress into the Quarter-Finals

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Since Diego Simeone's arrival in the Spanish capital, Atletico Madrid have been one of the continent's most difficult opponents across two legs in Europe. 

Indeed, the team that captured the Europa League in 2011-12 and reached the Champions League final in 2013-14 under Simeone have been beaten just once across two legs in continental competitions during his tenure. 

Of course, there's good reason for that record: Atletico rarely repeat mistakes, are difficult to score against and can grind down opposing sides with their physicality and intensity.

Returning home for the second leg, Simeone's men will feel confident of continuing that trend. And though Bayer Leverkusen are an outfit capable of matching them for aggression, Atletico's record in Europe and the fortress that is the Vicente Calderon give Los Colchoneros a slight edge despite the one-goal deficit.