March Madness 2015: Predicting Top Programs Destined to Lose in First Weekend

The draw of March Madness is that even the most prominent teams with veteran coaches are still vulnerable to losing early.

Last season's NCAA tournament saw Duke go down in the round of 64 while Syracuse and Kansas were knocked off in the next round. This represents three former national-champion coaches whose teams weren't up to the task.

This year's version isn't likely to be too much different, as there will once again be huge upsets right out of the gate. Although each of these programs has had plenty of success in the past, these teams are likely to see their season end earlier than expected.

Michigan State

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Although this Michigan State team isn't quite what Tom Izzo has had in the past, people often see that team in the brackets and pick it to the Final Four on instinct. Considering the coach's ability to get his team prepared for the postseason in the past, this isn't that bad of an assumption.

The Spartans are clearly peaking at the right time, winning four games in a row to remain in the hunt for second place in the Big Ten. With an elite trio of Branden Dawson, Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice, this team can compete with anyone in the nation.

However, the big problem that will hold this team back is free-throw shooting, which at 63.4 percent ranks 327th in the nation, according to TeamRankings.com. Very few tournament teams are anywhere close to this mark.

Michigan State has had some bad losses this year, including to Texas Southern, Nebraska and Illinois. In none of these defeats did the team shoot better than 60 percent from the charity stripe.

The questionable nonconference resume will ensure the Spartans end up with a middling seed and some tough games early. Without the ability to make the necessary shots at the line, this squad will have to prepare for some disappointment.

Louisville

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According to KenPom.com, Louisville ranks just 100th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell create a quality inside-out tandem, but the rest of the roster is difficult to trust on the offensive end.

While this was already something that could have caused the Cardinals to struggle in the tournament, it is a much bigger issue with the dismissal of Chris Jones. Losing the starting point guard and third-leading scorer is going to make an already struggling offense even worse for the remainder of the year.

ESPN's Jeff Goodman sees this as a major blow to the team's chances of competing in the postseason:

Louisville was able to get a win in its recent game without Jones, but it was far from impressive as the squad barely survived with a 52-51 come-from-behind win over Georgia Tech. ESPN's Dana O'Neil gave her impression of the victory:

The Cardinals now only have three players on the active roster who average more than four points per game, a fact likely to hold the team back in March.

Oklahoma

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At 10-5 in the Big 12, Oklahoma remains in contention for a conference title in the toughest league in the nation.

Forward Ryan Spangler is pleased with the team's position, saying, "Yeah, this is where we wanted to be. If you would have told us before the year started that with three games left we had a chance to be Big 12 champs if we take care of our own business, we’d have been happy," via Guerin Emig of Tulsa World.

Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports discussed Oklahoma's standing for an NCAA tournament seed:

While the Sooners' list of victories is pretty impressive, you can't ignore the losses on the resume either. They have four losses to teams outside the top 80 in the RPI, including two to Kansas State. These games might not hurt them just yet, but overlooking an opponent in March could mean an early end to the season.

Oklahoma has plenty of talent, but rebounding struggles and poor play against mediocre opponents should be legitimate cause for concern.

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