Are Arsenal Genuine Champions League Contenders This Season?

It’s little wonder the Champions League hasn’t become a tedious exploit for Arsenal and their fans. Their progress in the competition’s follows a perennially similar pattern. Arsene Wenger’s side have made the knockout rounds for 15 consecutive seasons, easing through the group stage with minimal fuss year after year. Then they hit the ceiling—otherwise known as Bayern Munich in recent times.

Indeed, the Gunners have been knocked out at the round-of-16 stage of the Champions League in each of the last four seasons. Arsenal find themselves in the awkward no-man’s land between Europe’s best and the rest, better than the majority of group-stage fodder but not quite up to the standard of the latter-round elite.

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However, there has been something of a different look to Arsenal in Europe this season. The Gunners have lost just once in the Champions League until this point—away to Borussia Dortmund—and made good on that defeat by overturning the Bundesliga side 2-0 at home. 

Given their group-stage record—four wins, one draw and one defeat from six games, scoring 15 in the process—it was unfortunate that Arsenal only qualified for the last 16 in second spot. Fortune was found, however, in the draw the Gunners were handed for the first knockout round.

The luck of the draw has been desperately unkind to Arsenal over the past four seasons, with Wenger’s side facing Barcelona, AC Milan and Bayern Munich twice in the last 16 over that stretch. But now they face AS Monaco for a place in the quarter-finals, and despite the seeding of the draw, Wenger’s side must be considered favourites.

“The last 16 in recent years has been super-tough, but this is a 50-50 game,” he said after the narrow 2-1 win over Crystal Palace at the weekend, as per Marc Williams of the Daily Star. “Monaco are very tight defensively. So it’s two good teams. For us it’s a tricky but possible tie. They have followed a similar pattern to us. They have come back in their championship, so their confidence will be high.”

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Of course, Wenger is only being modest. Arsenal stand more than just a “50-50” chance of progressing past Monaco and into the Champions League’s final eight. In fact, their pedigree and track record until this stage makes them one of the most accomplished teams left in the competition. So are Arsenal bona fide Champions League contenders this season?

Before making such a claim, the Gunners need to demonstrate that they can see off the best sides in Europe, of which Monaco—for all their organisation and discipline—are not. Even Dortmund—whom Arsenal beat in November—are not the team they once were, struggling domestically to such an extent that Jurgen Klopp’s side have been closer to the foot than the top of the Bundesliga.

And that’s the problem Arsenal have faced in recent years. It’s impossible to gauge their strength and Champions League candidacy when they are eliminated the first time they come up against an elite side—like Bayern Munich or Barcelona. They might get further in the competition this season, but that won’t necessarily provide a rebuttal of their struggles over the past few seasons.

Arsenal will face a very difficult challenge to the one they saw off against Crystal Palace on Saturday. While the Gunners were faced with a barrage of long balls and physical duels at Selhurst Park, they will come up against a Monaco side willing to sit in and invite pressure on top of themselves on Wednesday. It will be up to Arsenal to break them down.

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Just like Arsenal, Monaco endured a difficult start to the season but have since recovered and are now making a push for the top end of Ligue 1. So as Wenger highly asserts, the French side will at least have confidence to give them some kind of momentum heading into their first knockout Champions League fixture since they made the final back in 2004.

Of course, Monaco is a club Wenger knows well, having spent seven years there as a manager between 1987 and 1994 prior to a move into Japanese football, which in turn led to his appointment at Arsenal.

“Have I thought about Monaco? Not at all,” insisted the Frenchman, as per Sami Mokbel of the Daily Mail. “I have enough experience to know that the most important game is the next one. Honestly, I haven’t. What has been important for me has been to win at Palace.”

The Gunners now boast a higher degree of European pedigree than they have in recent years. The signing of Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez has given them a rapid—and most importantly effective—outlet on the counter-attack, something that will serve Wenger well on the continent, where so often the objective is to absorb opposition pressure before breaking when possible.

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The continued development of Olivier Giroud as one of the finest quintessential No. 9s in Europe has also given Arsenal the kind of cutting edge they have lacked in the final third since the departure of Robin van Persie. The emergence of Aaron Ramsey as an accomplished box-to-box operator will also strengthen Arsenal as a European proposition.

Despite their staggered Premier League season, Arsenal are at their strongest in nearly a decade. The Gunners now carry significant threat in Europe and have also appeared more at ease with continental competition than the demands of domestic football this season.

The flip-side of Arsenal being handed such a forgiving last 16 draw—for once—is that when they are paired with an elite side a rather sizeable gap in quality will need to be bridged. Whether it is now, or later in the competition, the Gunners must show they belong at the very top table of the European game.

It would be grossly unfair to criticise Arsenal for not beating opponents they haven’t played yet. Wenger’s side have strolled through the Champions League so far this season with swagger, and indeed they might be genuine candidates to win the whole thing. But their last-16 tie with Monaco will do much to determine that.