March Madness 2015 Bracket: Analyzing Top Teams' Chances of Earning No. 1 Seed

Although last year's March Madness wasn't too kind to the No. 1 seeds, getting that top line in the NCAA tournament is the goal for many teams in college basketball.

There might be a bigger gap at the top of this year's bracket than we have seen in some time, with eight squads really separating themselves from the field. Four of these teams will almost certainly get a No. 1 seed and in turn an easier path to the Elite Eight and beyond.

Still, the next few weeks will have a lot to do with how the bracket actually turns out on Selection Sunday. Here are predictions for the likelihood of each team coming away with a No. 1 seed on March 15.

Kentucky (95 percent)

This is as close to a lock as you are going to see at this point of the season. Kentucky is undefeated and still not happy with the play. Head coach John Calipari recently discussed the mindset, via Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal:

There are certainly some tough games remaining on the schedule—at home against Arkansas and on the road against Georgia especially—but it now seems likely the Wildcats will enter the NCAA tournament with a zero in the loss column. Even if they do falter once or twice, they will still be a No. 1 seed thanks to their overall resume.

Of course, there has to be some margin for error in case something drastic happens and the team loses out to drop to the second line. Still, you can pretty much pencil this team into the top left of your bracket as the No. 1 overall seed.

Gonzaga (80 percent)

Beck Diefenbach/Associated Press

Although Gonzaga has not put together as good of a nonconference schedule as it has in past years, it has still produced a number of quality wins, while its only loss came on the road in overtime against Arizona.

If the Bulldogs are able to take care of business and finish undefeated in the West Coast Conference, it seems like the committee will follow its past examples and give them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Whether Mark Few's team will finally reach the Final Four or fall apart in the earlier rounds like past seasons is a different debate that you can reflect in your personal bracket. However, this group deserves a top seed this year.

Virginia (70 percent)

Is Gonzaga a better team than Virginia? Possibly. Does it have a better resume at this point of the season? Absolutely not.

However, the NCAA tournament is still a few weeks away and the Bulldogs have a much better chance of winning the rest of their games. On the other hand, the Cavaliers have more difficult games with three of their final four on the road, including a trip to Louisville on the last day of the regular season. This is in addition to an ACC tournament that will include Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and others.

Virginia has struggled a bit offensively without the injured Justin Anderson, and if the group suffers a few losses, the breathing room it has over the next set of teams will disappear quickly.

Duke (55 percent)

While Duke has arguably the best wins of anyone in this group, including at Wisconsin and at Virginia, we can't simply forget about the losses when examining the entire resume.

As Grantland's Mark Titus explained after participating in the mock selection process, "At its best, Duke might be better than anyone. But are we really going to ignore that 16-point home loss to Miami? Hell, Duke’s second-worst loss of the season—by 12 at NC State—is still worse than any of the other potential 1-seeds’ losses."

If the Blue Devils do suffer one or two more losses—and you can be certain North Carolina will be eagerly waiting to pull off the upset on the final day of the regular season—some of the other potential top seeds should be able to pass them in the rankings.

Wisconsin (35 percent)

Although Wisconsin does have two losses, they are among the most explainable on the season. The Badgers lost earlier in the year to Duke (it happens) as well as during Big Ten play to Rutgers, in a game that didn't feature National Player of the Year favorite Frank Kaminsky. 

Yes, these are excuses, but the Badgers have completely dominated a conference that currently has eight teams projected to be in the NCAA tournament field by ESPN's Joe Lunardi. This is not an easy thing to do.

Then again, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports notes the difficulty of the remaining schedule:

Despite the challenges, Wisconsin should be favored in every game and has a chance to truly show what it can do against some top teams. If the squad can win out or even get through with just one loss, a No. 1 seed is attainable.

Arizona (30 percent)

The problem with Arizona is it has some truly poor losses. All three defeats this season featured a margin of fewer than five points, but all of them were to teams currently below 80 in the latest RPI, per ESPN.com.

Despite these defeats, the Wildcats have shown throughout the year they are truly an elite team with wins over Gonzaga, Utah and at San Diego State. Just because these games were on the West Coast and after many of our bed times, it doesn't mean they aren't impressive.

KenPom.com also rates Arizona as the No. 3 overall team in the nation due to some great defensive play. Although beating Utah on the road would be impressive, the Wildcats won't have many chances for truly eye-opening wins. This could keep them as a No. 2 seed unless some others above them suffer some bad losses.

Villanova (25 percent)

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

To be clear, Villanova deserves a lot more attention than it is currently getting. The Big East might not be the conference it once was, but there are a lot of talented squads in the league, and the Wildcats have, for the most part, cruised through the schedule.

With six players averaging at least nine points per game to go with an impressive team-defense mindset, this group is a legitimate national title contender that no one is talking about.

That being said, if the Wildcats haven't done anything to impress people yet (remaining outside the top five of polls for most of the year), they aren't going to do it any time soon. Even winning the Big East tournament wouldn't be enough to get a No. 1 seed unless others lose.

Kansas (10 percent)

The biggest thing going for Kansas is its RPI, which remains high despite six losses, according to ESPN.com. This is mostly due to an incredibly difficult schedule that has not only featured top competition but also no cupcakes, as noted by Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports:

With the exception of Tuesday's loss to Kansas State, the rest of the defeats were also against top competition, mostly in the toughest conference in the nation. If the Jayhawks can bounce back and secure their 11th Big 12 regular-season championship in a row and add a tournament title, they will have a great argument against almost anyone else in the field.

Unfortunately, the computers don't take into account margin of defeat like people do. Kansas lost by 25 to Temple and 32 against Kentucky, something No. 1 seeds just don't do. With more losses likely coming in such a difficult conference, there will simply be too much to overcome for this team to get onto the top line of the bracket.

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