Ranking the 10 CBB Teams Most Likely to Topple Kentucky
By a wide margin, the Kentucky Wildcats have been the best team in college basketball this season. Led by big man Willie Cauley-Stein and twin guards Andrew and Aaron Harrison, the undefeated Wildcats remain atop the AP rankings and are clear national title favorites. Their depth is remarkable, their entire starting lineup is 6’6’’ or taller and their defense is suffocating.
Three times, however, unheralded teams have taken Kentucky to the wire, suggesting that the Cats are very much mortal. Duke and Virginia, at their best, can beat anyone in the country, while Utah continues to turn heads and Wisconsin remains steady as ever. Which team has the best shot at ruining Kentucky's title hopes?
Methodology
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In determining the rankings that follow, I considered three particular criteria: quality wins, team strengths and individual performances. Quality wins indicate a proven ability to beat top-tier teams. Teams will be likelier to defeat Kentucky if their particular strengths match up well with Kentucky’s weaknesses. And certain players—like Duke’s Jahlil Okafor—are capable of taking over games, putting their team in contention against any competition.
Honorable Mentions
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Several talented teams, for one reason or another, were left off this list. The following three deserve mention as candidates clearly capable of beating Kentucky.
Gonzaga Bulldogs — The 26-1 Bulldogs are ranked third in the AP poll and are certainly capable of playing with anyone. But they have too few quality wins to merit inclusion on this list.
‘Ole Miss Rebels — The Rebels took Kentucky to double overtime in January. Had they made their free throws, they probably would have won, so they deserve mention here. (In fairness, the LSU Tigers lost by two points to Kentucky, while 'Ole Miss lost by three. But LSU was lucky that their game was so close, whereas the Rebels probably should have won their game.)
Wichita St. Shockers — The Shockers continue their run of impressive seasons and will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament. But like Gonzaga, Wichita St. lacks quality wins (they are 0-2 vs. ranked teams), and none of their strengths appear to match up with Kentucky's weaknesses.
No. 10 Kansas Jayhawks
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I know, I know. Kentucky embarrassed the Jayhawks at Rupp Arena in November, winning 72-40 in the Jayhawks' second game of the season. Kansas lacks a true superstar, and their strengths—particularly rebounding—play right into Kentucky’s hands.
But there are two reasons to believe the Jayhawks could flip the script. First, Kansas plays in an extremely tough Big 12 Conference, which currently boasts seven ranked teams. The Jayhawks have eight wins against Top 25 teams, rank first in the nation in RPI and Perry Ellis remains one of the nation’s best big men. They are the seventh-best three-point shooting team in the country.
And second, the team’s defense has improved over the course of the season. The only teams to score 70 plus points on the Jayhawks are Kentucky, Iowa State and Oklahoma, all of whom are top-tier teams. It’s unlikely, but the Jayhawks are clearly a top team and could certainly defeat the Wildcats with a bit of hot shooting.
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No. 9 Villanova Wildcats
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The Wildcats lost at Seton Hall and at Georgetown and struggled with a weaker-than-usual Syracuse team. But they’re undefeated against ranked competition, and their RPI ranks fourth in the nation.
They are one of the best passing teams in the NCAA (21st overall in assists per game) and, perhaps most importantly, they are one of the most experienced teams in the country. Their starting lineup is entirely upperclassman, led by senior forward JayVaughn Pinkston and senior guard Darrun Hilliard, who combine for roughly 25 points per game. The Cats of Villanova could absolutely challenge the Cats of Kentucky.
No. 8 — Arkansas Razorbacks
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Certainly the weakest team on this list, the Razorbacks have zero wins versus ranked teams and have lost three times to underwhelming opponents. It is extremely unlikely that Arkansas manages to take down Kentucky. However, I felt obligated to include a team scheduled to play Kentucky before the end of the season, and Arkansas is clearly the strongest of Kentucky’s remaining opponents.
Arkansas ranks ninth in the nation in points per game and fourth in assists per game. They can score the ball, and they have two quality contributors in Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls. If Qualls and the other Arkansas guards can find their three-point stroke, they may have a chance to ruin Kentucky’s undefeated season.
No. 7 — Northern Iowa Panthers
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The Panthers have continued their run of success in the Missouri Valley Conference and appear likely to earn a high seed come tournament time. Northern Iowa has an embarrassing loss at Evansville, and they fell in double overtime to an underrated VCU team, but most analysts seem to agree that the Panthers are capable of playing with anyone.
They rank 13th in field goal percentage, 16th in RPI and they start one of the nation’s best players in Seth Tuttle. The senior forward leads the team in points and rebounds and has shot an absurd 62.7 percent from the floor. The Panthers are a dark-horse candidate to knock off some bigger-name teams come tournament time.
No. 6 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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The Fighting Irish have beaten UNC on the road and Duke at home. They gave No. 3 Virginia their first scare of the season. To be fair, Duke slaughtered Notre Dame earlier this month, and the Irish struggled to eke out a win at Clemson. But they rank 13th in the nation in scoring, ninth in turnovers and 17th in three-point shooting.
These strengths align well with Kentucky’s “weaknesses.” Their four-guard starting lineup, while weak on the boards, may be able to frustrate Kentucky by getting into the lane, drawing fouls and kicking out for open 3-pointers. Jerian Grant, the team’s best player, is fully capable of taking over a game, and Mike Brey-coached teams are always a threat to pull off the upset. Notre Dame is absolutely a title contender.
No. 5 — Arizona Wildcats
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Sean Miller’s Wildcats have lost three close games to weak teams. But they are undefeated against Top 25 competition, and their offense is clearly one of the nation’s best. They rank sixth nationally in field goal percentage, 24th in points per game and have essentially four starters who average more than 10 points per game.
T.J. McConnell, their senior point guard, sports a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and averages more than two steals per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. They are third in KenPom's ratings and seventh in RPI, and junior Gabe York is a legitimate threat from deep. Like most teams at the top of our rankings, Arizona can beat anyone in the country if it plays well.
No. 4 — Utah Utes
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Like Arkansas and Northern Iowa, Utah is a surprising inclusion on this list—particularly given that the Utes lost by eighteen to Arizona earlier in the season and fell at UCLA on January 29.
But Jakob Poeltl is an excellent rebounder, Brandon Taylor and Jordan Loveridge have reliable three-point strokes and Delon Wright is one of the nation’s most complete players. The Utes are the nation’s tenth-best three-point shooting team.
As Grantland’s Mark Titus noted in last week’s rankings, the Utes lack embarrassing losses and have obliterated Pac-12 opponents. Plus, more so than most teams, the Utes sport an extremely deep bench—10 Utah players are averaging more than 10 minutes of playing time per game.
They rank ahead of Arizona mostly because a) Wright is better than any player on Arizona's roster, and b) the Utes can maybe negate some of Kentucky's depth.
No. 3 — Duke Blue Devils
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Duke is an obvious title contender. The Blue Devils have wins at home against Michigan State, Virginia, Notre Dame and North Carolina, and took down Louisville and Wisconsin on the road. They have perhaps the nation’s best offense, and they can beat anyone in the country.
They rank fifth in points per game, fifth in field goal percentage and seventh in scoring offense. Senior guard Quinn Cook and splendid freshman Tyus Jones form a daunting backcourt, and freshman center Jahlil Okafor is one of the nation’s two or three best players.
If they can penetrate Kentucky’s perimeter defense, draw fouls amongst the Wildcats’ big men and continue their strong three-point shooting, the Blue Devils could certainly topple Kentucky.
No. 2 — Virginia Cavaliers
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Like Duke, Virginia has bounced around the top of the rankings all season. They are clearly one of the best teams in the country and are perhaps the only team on this list whose defense can legitimately compare with Kentucky’s, ranking second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency standings and first in scoring defense.
The Cavaliers’ pair of junior guards, Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Anderson, are fill-up-the-stat-sheet kind of players, and essentially ten Cavaliers play at least ten minutes per game. They have experience (Virginia’s starting lineup includes no freshman and just one sophomore), they shoot 73 percent from the free-throw line and they rank second in the country in turnovers per game. Both free-throw shooting and turnovers will be vital for any team hoping to take down the Wildcats.
No. 1 — Wisconsin Badgers
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The top three spots in this ranking could have gone any which way. Duke, Virginia and Wisconsin are the three teams most likely to beat Kentucky, and all three are serious title contenders. Wisconsin wins out for two reasons.
First, the Badgers—as always—do not turn the ball over. They are ranked first in the nation in turnovers per game, and it’s not even close: Virginia, the next closest team, turns the ball over 16 percent more than the Badgers. Similarly, they rank 11th nationally in free-throw percentage, a full 19 spots ahead of Virginia. The Badgers do the little things well.
But second, and most importantly, the Badgers have Frank Kaminsky, the country’s best player. Kaminsky, a senior seven-footer, averages 17.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 blocks per game, while shooting 54 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 76 percent from the line.
Nobody else in the country fills up the stat sheet like Kaminsky.
The Badgers are ranked sixth in RPI, they don’t make mistakes, and they have an experienced coach and the best player in the country. For that reason, they are the team Kentucky should be most worried about facing.
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