Duke Basketball: Top End-of-Season Storylines to Follow

Don’t look now, but the college basketball regular season is starting to wind down. After the emotional overtime win against UNC on Wednesday night, Duke has just five games remaining before the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils have recovered from their midseason struggles with a six-game winning streak and are currently projected as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. 

Having gotten past the most difficult portion of its schedule, Duke needs to prove it can put away lesser opponents in its next four games before taking on UNC again in Chapel Hill on March 7. This may not seem like an important stretch, but the team has been playing to the level of its competition recently and needs to prove that it can beat teams handily heading into the postseason.

Will Duke Secure a No. 1 Seed in the Big Dance?

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Duke appears to be in prime position for a top seed at the moment, but a lot can change in the last few weeks of the season. There is little room for error, as Kentucky, Gonzaga and Virginia have all pretty much locked up No. 1 seeds.

If Duke loses any of its next four games (Clemson, at Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest), it would probably need to beat UNC and win the ACC tournament in order to be at the top of the bracket come Selection Sunday. No team can match Duke’s collection of high-end victories over Wisconsin, Virginia, Notre Dame and Louisville, but with two questionable losses already on the resume (North Carolina State and, worse, Miami at home), the Blue Devils cannot afford any more slip-ups.

Even if Duke wins out the regular season, it will need to avoid an early upset in the ACC tournament to stay on the top line. So many teams pick up quality wins during their respective conference tournaments that picking up a bad loss (or failing to get a quality win) can cost a team a seed or two.

The ACC has a few bubble teams that will be looking to play their way into the tournament in Miami, North Carolina State and Pittsburgh. Two years ago, Duke was the No. 1 team in the country heading into the tournament but fell to a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance after losing its first ACC tourney game to Maryland.

Duke has historically performed much better as a No. 1 seed than No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the Big Dance. With the first-round upsets the team has been falling victim to recently, a top seed would bring a lot of relief to nervous fans.

Where Will Duke Finish in the ACC Race?

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Even if they win out, it is still unlikely the Blue Devils will be able to capture the regular-season crown in the ACC. Virginia has lost only one conference game to Duke’s three, and the Cavaliers have a relatively easy schedule from here on out. Though it is playing without the injured Justin Anderson, Virginia’s only remaining game against the elite top five in the conference is at Louisville. The Cardinals have been struggling.

Even though they won't finish first, it is still important for the Blue Devils to finish high in the final ACC regular-season standings. They need to finish in the top four in the conference in order to get a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

Duke is currently in third place (Notre Dame has one more win but like Duke has three losses) and is two games ahead of both Louisville and UNC. Louisville will have a tough time passing Duke as it has already lost to the Blue Devils and still has to play Virginia. If Duke loses one of its winnable games and loses at UNC, it could end up tied with the Tar Heels, but the fourth seed seems like the worst-case scenario at this point.

Who Will Make the All-Conference Team?

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Several Blue Devils are candidates to receive all-conference accolades after the conclusion of the regular season.

Jahlil Okafor has locked up a first team all-ACC spot and is currently winning a two-man race for conference player of the year with Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant. Duke has three other players with varying chances of earning a spot on one of the league’s three all-conference teams.

Justise Winslow probably will be left off due to his midseason slump and the fact that it’s hard to work your way into one of 15 slots that have to be picked from 15 different teams. He will most likely make the all-freshman team along with Okafor and Tyus Jones and could also garner some votes for the conference’s all-defensive team.

Jones cemented his reputation as one of the most clutch players in the country against UNC and is also second in the conference in assists. It’s unlikely two players from Duke will get a first-team nod, but due to his clutch play, it would be surprising to see him left off the teams completely. Look for Jones to make second team all-conference.

Quinn Cook’s stellar senior season keeps getting better, and he is up to eighth in the conference in scoring after a recent hot streak. He is also unlikely to make the first team, and many voters may perceive him as the third most important player on the team, behind Okafor and Jones.

Cook, who was named third team all-ACC after his sophomore year, is deserving of a nod due to his leadership and consistent scoring. Expect him to make either second- or third-team All-ACC.

Will Tyus Jones Go Pro?

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The amazing play of Duke’s freshmen is starting to become troublesome for the future of the program.

Before Okafor played his first game at Duke, everyone knew he was leaving after one season. Heck, everyone has known he would be in college for only one year since he was about 16 years old.

Winslow was ranked only 15th in his recruiting class (somehow seven spots behind alien/human walking stick Justin Jackson) but has been considered a potential late lottery pick for most of the season after showcasing his insane athletic ability early on.

Tyus Jones is the one who realistically might stay, and Duke really needs him next year.

If Jones declares, Duke will enter next year with a backcourt of Matt Jones, Grayson Allen and incoming freshman Luke Kennard. That would represent a shortage of guards in general, and none of those three is a point guard.

If Duke ends up in this situation, it may have to pick up a junior college or postgraduate transfer to run the point, a move not generally in the team's playbook. Tyus Jones’ lack of size (6'1", 190 lbs) and elite athleticism could potentially knock him down a few draft spots, but with every clutch performance he posts, NBA general managers are more likely to fall in love with him.

Duke fans had to sweat out Jabari Parker’s decision last year, and they’re facing an even direr situation with Jones after this season.

Can Duke Sweep UNC?

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After that epic 92-90 battle on Wednesday, everyone should be excited about the rematch to close out the regular season. If Carolina wins, it can soften the blow of the heart-breaking loss while avoiding an embarrassing sweep. Duke’s win at Cameron should allow it to enter the Dean Dome with much less pressure, but you can bet your house that the Blue Devils will be hungry for the opportunity to sweep the Tar Heels.

No one will be surprised if this is another classic.