Is There a Last-Minute Role for Doug McDermott on This Year's Chicago Bulls?

Doug McDermott has been on the fringe of the Chicago Bulls' rotation as of late, and time may be running out for him to grab a foothold in the personnel cycle. On the surface, this may not be surprising when considering head coach Tom Thibodeau’s old-school approach to playing rookies, but the former Creighton Bluejays superstar was supposed to be the exception.

McDermott had a stellar NCAA career. He averaged 20-plus points per game in each of his last three seasons. Those general numbers were impressive, but it was his shooting ability that made him a prime target for general manager Gar Forman.

The young forward had a career true-shooting percentage of 65.2, including an impressive 45.8 percent from beyond the arc. That prowess, along with his highly elevated play, suggested that he could contribute immediately. Those high expectations were substantiated with impressive summer league and preseason performances; the stage was set for a remarkable debut season.

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Assessing his impact

McDermott has played in 22 of the team’s 54 games over the 2014-15 campaign, with the bulk of those appearances coming in the first 30 days. A knee ailment forced the young man to sit out all of December and most of January.

With such a limited sample, the fairest way to assess his performance would be to look at the stretch where his attendances were the most consistent. So the criteria will focus on the early part of the season.

Back when the 6’8” wing was getting regular in-game exposure, his numbers show that he not only underperformed for a rookie carrying higher-than-usual expectations but also for a player with his skill set.

McDermott’s strongest asset is his shooting accuracy; however, when he was getting consistent court time to the tune of 11.6 minutes a night, he was hitting only 42.3 percent of his shots, he had a terrible 23.1 three-point percentage and he had a minus-3.3 plus/minus rating.

Any hope of working himself into some sort of groove was dashed when he suffered a knee injury that needed arthroscopic surgery, sidelining him for almost two months. When he was finally able to play again, nothing much had changed by way of production.

McDermott has played 1.7 minutes per game since returning January 22. He has averaged 2.4 points per game, attempted and made one three-point shot and has a plus-2.8 plus/minus rating; it bears stating that he has also been relegated to garbage minutes.

For someone who is perceived as such a skilled shooter, his contributions have not been the least bit meaningful. In fact, the team benefits more when he sits. Chicago’s offensive rating goes from 99.9 with McDermott on the court to 106.1 when he is not. The defensive rating improves as well, going from 106.9 to 101.5.

This youngster’s promise has gone unrealized, which does not bode well for being able to secure some last-minute part going into the season’s home stretch; however, his underwhelming output is only part of the reason.

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He’s stuck at the end of the bench

Time has run out for McDermott to find his way back into Thibodeau’s rotation. Now that the All-Star break is over, everything for the potential playoff teams is geared toward streamlining personnel and strategy for the postseason. As for that last spot, it has been taken by Tony Snell.

The second-year wing has played consistently and well since January to the tune of 25.4 minutes, 9.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. He has been shooting well from the field, which has helped with spacing in the half-court set.

The timing of Snell’s rise overlaps with McDermott’s convalescence, but it was not sudden. The former New Mexico product played sparingly in December when his rookie colleague first went out of commission.

One might argue that had McDermott not been injured then he would still be an integral player, but his game log shows that his playing time was on the decline even before his knee issues flared up. It’s quite plausible to deduce that the rookie’s lack of tangible progress over those first 20 games had doomed him to ride the pine.

It is not the end of the world, however. Looking at Snell’s recent play and the evolution of Jimmy Butler, there are good things ahead for McDermott if he maintains his focus and work ethic. His college play has shown that he’s a winner, and that attitude meshes well with the team’s culture.

Now is not his time, but he will get his due.

All statistics courtesy of NBA.com and are current as of February 20, 2015.