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2015 NBA Draft Prospects with the Shakiest Standing Right Now

Jonathan WassermanFeb 19, 2015

With March just around the corner, there are a handful of 2015 NBA draft prospects standing on shaky ground. 

For the most part, their draft-stock volatility stems from a lack of progression. Over a multiyear span, most scouts are likely to want to see gradual improvement, whether it's adding something new or refining something old. 

Kansas freshman Cliff Alexander is on shaky ground for a different reason. Another prospect's draft outlook could come down to off-court issues. 

These are the prospects who could be vulnerable to draft-night slides if they aren't careful down the stretch.  

Cliff Alexander, Kansas, 6'8", PF, Freshman

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Cliff Alexander played just six minutes in Kansas' loss to West Virginia Monday night. According to the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd, coach Bill Self said the game was just "too fast" and that he was "unhappy with how [Alexander] guarded Devin Williams."

It marked the sixth time in seven games Alexander finished with eight points or less. To his credit, he's been a constant on the glass, but offensive limitations and occasional defensive mishaps have caused Coach Self to look elsewhere.

Alexander is raw. The appeal for him as a prospect stems from his athleticism and motor under the boards. Leave him in a game long enough, and he's bound to generate activity in the paint. 

But with the freshman at 6'8", you have to wonder if he'll be able to make an exclusive living down low in the pros. He hasn't shown any promising signs of a jumper, while his post game remains limited to basic, stiff hook shots. 

Alexander clearly isn't ready to step into an NBA game. And as an undersized power forward who can't shoot or create, his upside doesn't seem enticing enough to heavily invest a high pick and years of work.

Now that his minutes are down, he could have a tough time disproving that notion. 

Still, you'd like to imagine Alexander will look to get out and declare while he can. But as SB Nation's Ricky O'Donnell points out, "If he's going to ride the bench, he might as well get paid to do it. It's all just sort of unfortunate because Alexander is still a raw player with a skill set that doesn't really fit the way the NBA is going."

It's not even entirely Alexander's fault, but after looking like a potential top-five prospect out of high school, he could be in jeopardy of falling outside the top 20.

Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, 6'8", PF, Junior

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While Montrezl Harrell's numbers look fine on the surface, he hasn't made the strides NBA scouts were likely hoping to see from a third-year player.

Per 40 minutes, his stats are actually slightly down from a year ago.

At the offensive end, his post game remains unpolished, and the jumper continues to misfire. 

Since hitting a fluky three three-pointers and 9-of-10 from the line opening night, Harrell has made just 4-of-30 from downtown and 56.6 percent of his free throws.

His game ultimately revolves around catching and finishing at the basket, where he's been automatic. Harrell converts drive-and-dumps, lobs and offensive rebounds into easy buckets from above the rim. 

He projects as an interior specialist—only at 6'8", he doesn't have the size shared by most NBA bigs who live in the paint. 

Teams will surely value Harrell's motor and athletic ability, as well as his physical defense, intensity and presence under the boards.

But after three years, you'd expect his offensive repertoire to be a little more trustworthy. 

He's still a first-round pick, but his ceiling has dropped a few stories since 2013. We've moved him to No. 21 in our post-trade-deadline mock draft.

Robert Upshaw, 7'0", C

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After getting booted from two programs, Robert Upshaw will enter draft season covered in red flags. 

It's too bad, considering he was the country's leading shot-blocker at Washington before being dismissed. 

Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski originally reported that Upshaw could be headed to the NBA D-League, where he'd have the opportunity to earn back some credibility and find a new coaching staff to support him. 

But it's now been roughly a month, and we haven't heard a peep from Upshaw's camp. 

In terms of talent, there's no question he offers enough to generate first-round interest. At 7'0", Upshaw has the NBA body, along with unteachable instincts when it comes to rim protection.

However, getting kicked off two different teams is no easy task. NBA executives are bound to grill Upshaw during team interviews, which may arguably be his toughest predraft obstacle. 

Upshaw could ultimately go anywhere from No. 15 to No. 60 depending on how well he sells himself off the court.

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Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, 6'9", SF, Junior

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It's not that Sam Dekker has played poorly. He just hasn't improved enough for a third-year player with top-20 hopes. 

It's a little unsettling to see him, as a projected small forward, shoot below 35 percent from three and under 70 percent from the line for the second straight year. 

Dekker's iffy jumper becomes even more of a concern when you consider he isn't a playmaker (1.1 assists per game) or scorer. His 22-point outing against Penn State Wednesday night was actually a career high. 

He does a lot of things well, from driving and finishing to passing and shot-making. But there's nothing about Dekker that screams must-have prospect. 

For what it's worth, he was a non-factor in a loss to Duke on December 3, having finished with just five points.

Despite Wisconsin's success on the year, Dekker hasn't quite done enough individually to maximize his draft stock. With a role-player NBA ceiling, he could be in jeopardy of being overlooked for underdeveloped yet higher-upside prospects. 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona, 6'7", SF, Sophomore

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Rondae Hollis-Jefferson entered the season as a potential breakout prospect to watch once Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson got drafted. 

Only he looks like the same player on offense, limited to slashing and finishing. He's also making less than 70 percent of his free throws for the second straight year. 

You just don't see many NBA wings who can't stretch the floor or knock down jumpers, and Hollis-Jefferson doesn't appear to be anywhere close as a shooter. 

Last year, we saw Syracuse's Jerami Grant fall to the second round after failing to hit a three all season (the fact that Grant is shooting 38.7 percent from three in the pros is a complete anomaly).

Quite frankly, I'm just not sure the upside tied to a non-scoring forward is worth reaching on.

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