Bold Predictions for the 2015 Daytona 500
The Daytona 500 is not only the biggest race in NASCAR, it’s also the most unpredictable.
Drivers one would think have a great chance to win the 500 oftentimes fail to finish due to either starting errors or wrecks.
At the same time, if something unpredictable can happen, it will happen at Daytona.
We’ve seen big post-race fights (1979 between Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough), a woman start from the pole for the first time in history (Danica Patrick, 2013) and Juan Pablo Montoya running into the rear of a track dryer in 2012.
With all that in mind, it’s time to make our annual bold predictions for this year’s edition of the Great American Race, which is set for Sunday at 1 p.m ET at Daytona International Speedway. After you read through this, leave a comment with your own bold predictions.
There Will Be a 1st-Time Winner
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There has not been a first-time winner of the 500 since Trevor Bayne pulled the upset in 2011, becoming the youngest driver to ever win the 500, just one day after his 20th birthday.
There have been repeat winners in the last three editions of the 500—with each driver earning his second victory in the Great American Race: Matt Kenseth (2012, his first was in 2009), Jimmie Johnson (2013, 2006) and defending winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2014, 2004).
But if Jeff Gordon, Johnson or another repeat winner doesn’t take the victory, that could open the door to a potential first-timer.
Here are five drivers we think could win the 500 for the first time:
Sam Hornish Jr.: He won the 2006 Indianapolis 500 and three IndyCar championships. Wouldn’t it be a great debut with Richard Petty Motorsports for Hornish to join Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt as having won both the Daytona 500 and the Indy 500?
Tony Stewart: How can you not have Smoke on this list? Even though he’s won four different times at Daytona, none have ever been in the 500. This will be Stewart’s 18th try to win the Great American Race, almost equaling the frustration of the late Dale Earnhardt, who finally captured his first and only 500 win in 1998 on his 20th attempt.
Stewart is long overdue. And he won't give up until he's unable to mount a competitive challenge. He commented on his chances earlier this week: "Not until the day that I don't run here anymore. Everybody has got a shot here. We've been in that position before. That at least gives you confidence that you've got a shot," per Jenna Fryer of The Associated Press (via The Detroit News).
Danica Patrick: Don’t laugh. There’s no reason why Patrick can’t pull an upset in the sport’s biggest race. She won the pole in 2013 and finished a very respectable eighth. If Patrick can stay out of wrecks and put herself in position to challenge for the win on the final lap, anything can happen. We can especially see one of her Stewart-Haas Racing teammates pushing Patrick to the win—except for Stewart. Then it’s every man or woman for himself/herself.
Kyle Larson: Last year’s Rookie of the Year is a first win waiting to happen. And what better place to get a first career Sprint Cup triumph than in the legendary Daytona 500. Larson has no fear when it comes to mixing it up with his fellow drivers. If he sees an opening on the last lap to win the 500, he’ll take it and hope for the best.
If any of these drivers do indeed win Sunday, it will come down to Stewart—finally, after 17 years of frustration.
Will Greg Biffle Cause the 1st Wreck?
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If you look up the word “overaggressive,” there should be a picture of Daytona International Speedway next to it. Restrictor-plate racing at DIS oftentimes brings out the worst in drivers—or, at the very least, mental mistakes that lead to large multicar wrecks.
Most wrecks occur for a variety of reasons. Sometimes, a driver thinks he can fit into a hole and misjudges his distance. The next thing you know, a pinball-like chain reaction occurs and mayhem results.
Other times, instead of drafting or pushing the car in front of him, a driver mistakenly hits the rear of the car ahead and winds up turning it. And the end result is yet another multicar pileup.
This is not to pick on any particular driver. Rather, the five selections are based upon observation of these drivers being involved in a number of past wrecks, both at Daytona and other tracks. It would have been six, but Montoya isn’t racing in NASCAR anymore. (Of course, that’s a joke; just trying to inject some levity here.)
So, if anyone causes the first wreck in Sunday’s race, we think it could be Greg Biffle, Austin Dillon, Clint Bowyer or Brad Keselowski.
Rain Determines the Outcome
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Rain has wreaked havoc with the Daytona 500 in two of its last three runnings.
In 2012, the rain was so bad that the race was postponed to the following evening. Even though Kenseth won his second career 500, the victory was overshadowed by the tremendous fire that resulted when Montoya lost control of his car and slammed into the rear of a track dryer. Fortunately, no one was injured.
And then there was last year’s iteration. Originally slated to start shortly after 1 p.m. ET, the race got underway for just a short while before rain came calling. What resulted was a six-hour, 22-minute delay before the 500 resumed.
Even though a good number of fans who arrived in the morning had long departed by the time the race resumed, to NASCAR’s credit, it ran a full 200-lap, 500-mile event, which Junior won.
While rain may not seem like a big deal for fans, it definitely changes the complexion of a race for teams. Any appreciable delay not only washes away any rubber on the track to help grip, it also can cause crew chiefs to rip up their original game plan and start from scratch or just wing it.
And let’s not forget the potential for rain to cause a shortened race. Remember how Aric Almirola made the Chase for the Sprint Cup last season? He won a rain-shortened event at Daytona in the summer.
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Toyota Wins the Daytona 500
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A Toyota-powered driver has never won the Daytona 500. And given the way Toyota teams struggled terribly in 2014, winning just two Sprint Cup races after taking 14 the season before, there could be no bigger start to a turnaround in 2015 than to win the biggest race in the sport.
Virtually every Toyota driver has a chance to win this one, particularly the four drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing: Denny Hamlin, two-time 500 champ Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards.
Edwards is the key to a Toyota win in Daytona. This is his first race for JGR since coming over after a decade with Roush Fenway Racing. It’s a given that Edwards would like to impress for his new team and sponsor—and there’s no better way to do that than in Sunday’s race.
Roush Fenway Racing Puts All 3 Drivers in the Top 5
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Kenseth left after 2012. Edwards left after 2014.
Now, Roush Fenway Racing must soldier on in 2015 with a seasoned veteran in Greg Biffle, a still unproven driver in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne, who was finally promoted to the Sprint Cup Series for 2015.
Let’s face it, RFR was an anomaly in 2014. Sure, Edwards and Biffle made the Chase, but they did very little overall when compared to other Ford drivers like Keselowski and Joey Logano.
Team majority owner Jack Roush is not one to let his teams struggle for a prolonged period of time. Don't be surprised if RFR has some magic up its sleeve for the Daytona 500. In fact, think of this: Which team would you least expect to potentially win the 500? RFR would have to be on that list, if not right at the top.
Roush took it hard when Edwards announced he’d be leaving at the end of the 2014 season and moving to archrival Toyota.
What better way for Roush, known as the Cat in the Hat, to get some revenge by having one of his drivers win the 500—or, at the very least, have all three finish in the top five on Sunday—and then turn to Edwards and say, “See what you missed by leaving”?
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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