John Henson's Value Has Never Been Greater to Milwaukee Bucks' Future
The Milwaukee Bucks have served as one of the NBA's more pleasant surprises this season, with the team becoming a cohesive unit under Jason Kidd's supervision and emerging as a highly competitive squad in the Eastern Conference.
And that's all happened with John Henson playing a limited role.
Throughout the 2014-15 campaign, the big man from North Carolina has averaged 7.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.9 blocks per game despite only spending 17.9 minutes on the floor during the typical contest. He's knocked down 58.2 percent of his shots from the field, and his player efficiency rating is a strong 18.1—right in line with where it's been during the other two seasons of his professional career. But he's still not playing much, and that's not even guaranteed to change in the wake of recent news.
Basically, he's been a stellar reserve who's counted on for under 20 minutes of high-quality play on most nights. And even still, he's backed his way into becoming a crucial part of the organization's future.
Uncertain Future in the Frontcourt
With Jabari Parker (who can move between the two forward spots), Henson, Larry Sanders and a host of veterans, the Bucks possessed both immediate production and plenty of upside in the frontcourt. Now, everything looks a lot shakier, and that's not just because the most recent first-round pick is rehabbing after a torn ACL ended his rookie season.
Here's ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
"Buyout discussions have begun between the Milwaukee Bucks and Larry Sanders that would make the recently suspended big man a free agent, according to league sources.
Sanders has served a 10-game suspension for violating the league's anti-drug program but has not returned to the team and is not expected to play for Milwaukee again. He has been listed as out for "personal reasons" in each of the Bucks' past three games.
"
And Stein isn't the only one reporting that such a plan is underway. Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski treats it like a mere formality before moving on to the next step of Sanders' career, though it's worth noting that Sanders' agent disputes the finality of these reports:
Sanders, when healthy and motivated, was a huge defensive force in the Milwaukee paint. Now, he'll likely never play another minute for the Bucks, which gives them one less option in a frontcourt that's already been thinned out by injuries. And while players will heal, the prognosis could be similarly dim moving forward if someone doesn't break out.
Let's look at what's left for next season.
Parker should be back at full strength—or at least close to it. But using him at power forward still requires the Bucks to go small, and that's not always advantageous. Henson will be on the roster as well, but it's now a safe assumption that Sanders will be gone, despite the big extension he signed only a season ago.
Then we have the aging players and the ones who aren't guaranteed to be back.
Kenyon Martin is working on a one-season deal, and he's already 37 years old. Relying on him moving forward is rather nonsensical, and the same is true of 31-year-old Zaza Pachulia, even though he'll be paid slightly more than $5 million in 2015-16.
Johnny O'Bryant will continue filling a small role for the Bucks, while Ersan Ilyasova may eventually be traded. He's under contract for two more seasons—though 2016-17 is almost completely non-guaranteed—but his usefulness to Milwaukee hasn't been readily apparent for quite some time. He's playing less than 20 minutes per game for the first time since his rookie season, and he's been a detriment on both ends of the floor.
Henson is now the sole big man with plenty of untapped upside. With Sanders gone, he's the lone player who can improve and render shoring up the frontcourt far less of an offseason priority.
And he's capable of doing exactly that.
Versatile Talent
During the first three years of his NBA tenure, Henson has already shown that he doesn't have to be limited to just one position. The 6'11" big man has bounced between power forward and center quite frequently, and that allows him to fill whichever hole the Bucks need.
Right now, power forward might be the bigger priority. But down the road, it should be center, as Pachulia is aging and losing effectiveness. Either way, Henson is capable of providing some positive two-way contributions.
He's not a particularly skilled distributor, but he doesn't need to be one with so many playmaking options on Kidd's roster. Having Giannis Antetokounmpo, Parker and Brandon Knight will more than make up for that flaw down the road, though it's not as if the former Tar Heel is some black hole who's utterly incapable of making kick-out passes when caught in a crowd.
Nonetheless, Henson's offensive production comes largely from his scoring. Even this year, he's been valuable to the Bucks while coming off the bench, as he's dropped in those 7.2 points per game on nearly 60 percent shooting. Per 36 minutes, he's putting up 14.4 points, and that's actually his lowest mark since he left Chapel Hill behind.
Though he's not much of a floor-spacing threat—he displayed signs that he could develop a dangerous jumper during his college days, but that hasn't happened yet—Henson's ability to get up quick and efficient shots around the basket is beneficial. This season, NBA.com's statistical databases show that nearly 72 percent of his shots come within two seconds of touching the ball, and he's shooting a scorching 63.1 percent on those looks.
Typically, he can provide Milwaukee with a smorgasbord of alley-oop finishes and putback opportunities, using his long arms and springiness to wreak havoc around the basket.
Now, combine that with some solid defense.
Per NBA.com, he can get in trouble when left in one-on-one situations around the basket—his man is shooting 56.7 percent from inside of six feet—but he's utterly dominant when working against floor-spacing options. Thanks to his immense length and natural gift for timing block attempts, he alters and rejects enough attempts that he's holding his assignment to 31.8 percent shooting from outside of 15 feet.
And that's saying nothing of his help defense.
As he learns to protect the rim more effectively and adds some strength, he'll become as dangerous a defensive player as he was in college. Remember, Henson is still only 24 years old, and his frame should be able to handle more weight without forcing him to sacrifice his bounciness.
Already, despite the holes in his game, he's a defensive asset.
Henson has produced a defensive box plus/minus of 4.4 this season, which means that he's made the Bucks 4.4 points better per 100 possessions than a league-average defender would. Tim Duncan, Rudy Gobert, Jeremy Evans, Andrew Bogut and Kalin Lucas are the only players this season with better DBPMs, though Evans and Lucas have combined to spend just 77 minutes on the court all season.
But what makes this young Buck particularly intriguing is how rare this type of overall versatility is from a center. Even if he's not supremely dominant in any one area, he's a capable scorer, a strong rebounder and a well-rounded defender.
Henson is one of only two big men this year with a block percentage above 8 percent, a total rebounding percentage of at least 13 percent and a true shooting percentage above 60 percent. The other is Hassan Whiteside, who, at times, has appeared to function as the Miami Heat's savior.
But this Milwaukee big doesn't have to play the part of savior right now. Even though the 30-23 Bucks have been better on both ends of the court when he's played, he's been stuck in a smaller role, and the team has succeeded all the same.
Sanders played his 27th—and probably final—game of the season on Dec. 23, spending 27 minutes on the court in a loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Since then, Henson has received 21.3 minutes of run during the average contest, which, while more than he was getting before, doesn't make him a truly key contributor.
Again, it's not about the present.
Henson still has plenty of untapped potential, and that's what makes his value greater than it's been since he entered the league. Sure, he's a few years older now, but he's also the only high-upside player left among the bigs rostered by a competitive squad.
If he can develop, Milwaukee won't prove to be a one-year flash in the pan but will instead transition into an annual contender in the Eastern Conference. And if he can't, the team will be left using aging stopgaps to mask a fatal flaw until a new top-end talent is found.
For that very reason, don't be surprised when his minutes just continue to creep up as the season progresses. Even if Kidd feels more comfortable with the established frontcourt options, Henson's development—one that can be best aided by spending time on the floor during live action—is more important to Milwaukee's future than ever before.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current through the All-Star break.
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