NBA Draft Notebook: Providence's Kris Dunn Could Be Biggest Wild Card in 2015

After Providence's Kris Dunn suffered consecutive season-ending shoulder injuries, you'd hate to jump the gun on the redshirt sophomore point guard. But he's making it awfully tough not to address his 2015 NBA draft outlook, having emerged as one of the biggest risers and college basketball surprises. 

He's putting up some of the best numbers in the country while flashing obvious glimpses of pro potential. 

Dunn's season could even find the history books. If it ended today, he'd be only one of six NCAA players since 1997 to play at least 25 games while averaging 7.0 assists and 2.5 steals, per sports-reference.com. He's been a playmaking tornado on both sides of the ball. 

	Points	FG Pct.	Assists	Rebounds	Steals	Turnovers	3PT Pct
	15.4	.486	7.6	5.8	2.8	4.2	.339

A consensus 2012 top-25 national recruit out of high school, Dunn's talent had always been well documented. But he struggled as a freshman before lasting just four games in 2013-14. 

He'll be 21 years old in March. And given the unlikelihood of Dunn improving upon his current production next season, it wouldn't be shocking if he declared for this June's draft and struck while the iron was hot.

While Dunn's numbers have been terrific, his physical tools—at 6'3" with a strong 205-pound frame, long arms and some electric athletic ability—and profile have also looked sharp under the NBA microscope. 

In terms of Dunn's skill set, he's been a machine out of pick-and-rolls, which plays to his next-level appeal as well. Dunn is super quick off the dribble and can change direction on a dime, whether it's to cross over, spin or split the defense.

In the half court, Dunn is ultimately at his best operating behind ball screens that create gaps in the defense for him to penetrate through. He's most threatening once he's broken into that second level—Dunn finishes at a solid 60.2 percent clip at the rim and 42.3 percent mark on two-point jumpers (pull-ups, floaters, runners), per Hoop-Math.

However, despite his 15.4 points-per-game scoring average, Dunn's first instinct and priority is to distribute. The fact that he leads the country in assist percentage (51.5) tells you all you need to know about his floor game. He's constantly looking for teammates off drives and picks, and he's especially giving in transition, considering 38.9 percent of his assists have come within the first 10 seconds of Friars' possessions.

Dunn offers a dangerous blend of vision and burst in the open floor, where he finds teammates before the defense can set. Of our top nine NCAA point guards we project could declare in 2015, only Duke's Tyus Jones picks up a greater chunk of his assists on the break:

As good as Dunn has been at generating offense, his defense has been just as helpful toward enhancing his credibility.

Dunn's lengthy 6'8" wingspan, active hands and tremendous anticipation translate to the sixth-best steal percentage in the country.

He's collected 10 steals combined over his last two games against Villanova last Wednesday and Seton Hall on Saturday. Dunn has showcased everything from off-ball reaction time and disruptive pick-and-roll defense to spectacular hand-eye coordination, whether he's making a strip on a one-on-one drive or picking the pocket of a ball-handler in isolation:

Between his feel for setting the table and knack for creating takeaways, Dunn checks out quite well from an analytics standpoint when one projects his jump to the pros. 

According to ESPN stat man Ryan Feldman, "Among guards in the last five NBA drafts [excluding 2014's], the top four in steal percentage in their final college season have started the majority of their NBA games." He also found that, "Among guards and wings in the last five NBA drafts, eight of the top 10 in assist percentage in their final college season have started in the NBA."

Unfortunately, as encouraging as Dunn has looked, both on paper and on the court, he doesn't come without questions or concerns.

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Only one other player in the country has piled up more turnovers. We'll let his 28 percent usage rate and lack of surrounding weapons absorb some of the blame. But there's no doubt Dunn's decision-making and discipline need work. Far too often, you'll see him force the issue, over-dribble or simply lose control.

Dunn isn't known for his shooting stroke either, which has connected on just 33.9 percent of his threes and a scary 66.2 percent of his free throws.

The good news: Since the start of conference play, Dunn has displayed promising shot-making capability that suggests conceivable future improvement. 

He's hit 14 threes over his last 11 games. Dunn made six jumpers, including two pull-ups, a step-back and a leaner, during his triple-double against DePaul on January 29. He's shown the ability to separate in the mid-range as well as convert under pressure. 

Quite frankly, Dunn can be pretty darn convincing on days when he's cooking from outside. 

If this were Dunn's freshman season, chances are he would have likely found himself in every lottery conversation. But after a mediocre first year at Providence and a second one spent mostly on the shelf, the unanswered questions regarding his jumper, turnovers and durability hold more weight at this stage in his development. 

Still, we're now 26 games into the year, and Dunn hasn't slowed down much at all. His athleticism and NBA body already posed some intriguing upside for a point guard, but the continuous two-way production has really strengthened his case as a prospect. 

Outside of Emmanuel Mudiay, who's over in China, and Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Dunn has suddenly emerged as the No. 3 point guard option on our 2015 board.

It's still unclear if he'll declare this June, and while there's time left for the draft-stock needle to move in either direction, it's just become impossible to ignore Dunn's eye-opening numbers and well-rounded performance. 

“Kris has a long way to go,” coach Ed Cooley told NCAA.com's Stephen Sellner. “He’s just scratching the surface and in doing so, he’s becoming one of the best point guards if not in the Big East, then in the country because I don’t know who’s playing as well as he is over the last three weeks.”

Notables

• UNLV sophomore big man Christian Wood turned it up his last two games against Fresno State and Air Force, having totaled 58 points, 28 boards and 12 blocks. While his opponents were clearly inferior, Wood's coming-out party continues to rage on. At 6'11", his size and athleticism should have already had him on the radar entering the year. But Wood's skill set, particularly his face-up attack, has really come around. Don't be shocked to suddenly start hearing Wood's name mentioned in the 2015 lottery conversation.

• Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns is experiencing his best stretch of the year. His 12-point, 13-rebound, two-block game against LSU on Tuesday was arguably his most impressive of the season. He showcased everything from post scoring and outside shooting to rim protection and dominance on the glass. It was just a reminder of Towns' towering ceiling, which is a bit higher than Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor's. Towns' best chance at knocking Okafor off the throne will be through achieving consistency from here on out, which could be tough to do in Kentucky's loaded frontcourt. But the race to the top spot on draft boards clearly isn't over. 

• Arizona sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has now scored at least 14 points in three consecutive games, which is encouraging, given his raw offensive attack. However, he hasn't hit a three-pointer since December 13. And that's bad news for a projected small forward. Hollis-Jefferson is also shooting below 70 percent from the line for the second straight year. As good as he is defensively, Hollis-Jefferson could have a tough time drawing first-round interest without a jumper in the arsenal. You just don't see many serviceable NBA wings who can't stretch the floor.