
UNC Basketball: Biggest Takeaways from Showdown vs. Duke
North Carolina had a season-defining victory in its grasp on Wednesday night, leading by nine points at Duke with less than three minutes remaining. And then it all went downhill.
When the dust settled on the latest great clash between the Tobacco Road rivals, the Tar Heels were dealt a 92-90 overtime loss that knocked them into a three-way tie for fourth place in the ACC.
Despite the loss, the result showed us some promising development about UNC heading into the final weeks of the regular season. However, it also revealed some unsettling issues that don't seem to be going away anytime soon.
Scroll through to see our takeaways from North Carolina's narrow OT loss to the Blue Devils.
Tokoto Flying Is Better Than Tokoto Jumping
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J.P. Tokoto had one of his most complete games of the season on Wednesday, with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. He'd scored just 13 points in the previous three outings, two of which saw him come off the bench as coach Roy Williams tried to mix things up.
Tokoto also had zero turnovers, his third such performance in the past four games after throwing the ball away six times in back-to-back games in late January.
The 6'6" junior forward's value comes from his ball-handling and athleticism, but not his shot selection. Tokoto had three dunks—including a stellar reverse jam on a runout—and was 4-of-5 on shots in the paint, but when he decided to attempt a jumper, the results were far from productive.
Tokoto made just 3-of-10 jump shots, and UNC only rebounded two of those misses. Duke turned the others into eight points.
With the ability to soar through the sky, Tokoto must continue to attack the rim. When that option isn't there, he should make the most of his passing acumen rather than just putting up the shot.
Johnson Needs Some Brakes to Go with His Motor
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Brice Johnson had his game going in high gear against Duke, and during the early stretch when North Carolina fell behind by a bunch, he seemed to be the only player doing anything.
He finished with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting with 12 rebounds, including five on the offensive glass.
With that said, Johnson was also noticeably absent down the stretch, which was the result of him fouling out 31 seconds into overtime. He picked up his fourth foul with 7:55 left in the second half and had to spend much of the remainder on the bench.
The 6'9" junior forward has been at his best this season when he is aggressive, taking shots and crashing the glass.
Wednesday's game featured his seventh double-double (the sixth in his last 11 games) and marked the 10th time he's taken at least 10 shots. But it was also the fourth time he's fouled out in 2014-15, compared to seven for the rest of the Tar Heels.
A high motor is great, but one that has some speed control is better.
Britt and Berry Need to Play More
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North Carolina lacks a true point guard, at least as far as its starting lineup goes. Marcus Paige is better suited for the 2, based on his shooting stroke and ability to get free and create scoring opportunities, while J.P. Tokoto is a wing who ends up serving as a point forward far too often.
Joel Berry and Nate Britt are the de facto point guards coming off the bench, and on Wednesday they spent quite a bit of time on the court together with Paige suffering early foul trouble and having an all-around horrible game.
Berry played 24 minutes after logging 28 at Pittsburgh on Saturday, while Britt played 23 minutes for his fifth 20-minute outing in the past six games. Britt scored 11 points, while Berry had three points, five rebounds and two assists.
Together they made just 5-of-16 shots, but much of that was because they were trying to be both point guards and shooting guards when Paige wasn't in there.
Their value comes in facilitating and helping others create, and their playing time needs to continue going up if UNC wants to have a change to make a good postseason run.
Marcus Paige Has No Confidence
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Has there been a more disappointing preseason All-American in recent memory than Marcus Paige?
There was a strong likelihood that Paige's numbers were going to be down this year, if only because North Carolina's lineup seemed to be deeper and more offensively adept than the crew from 2013-14 that Paige basically had to put on his back for most of the season.
But there's attrition and then there's what Paige has put forth.
Paige was 2-of-11 from the field against Duke, finishing with five points. That tied a season low and marked the sixth time this season he's been held to single-digit points, a figure that would have been much higher if not for several games in which he scored a bunch of points in the final minutes.
Paige did that a lot last year, too, but often to get to 20-plus for the game in a winning effort.
Now shooting just 39.2 percent from the field after going 5-of-22 in the past two games, Paige doesn't look like a player who expects his shots to fall. Even more disturbing, he's looking reluctant to even take them at times.
Part of Paige's struggles against Duke were the result of defensive design, as Duke guard Quinn Cook was on him like a blanket all night. Paige has seen that before and shook his man loose, but he didn't look interested in doing that this time.
If Paige doesn't have confidence, this team will need another leader in order to avoid falling apart.
The Fight Is There—Just Not the Finish
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There's never a shortage of emotion and excitement when Duke and North Carolina play, and this often manifests itself in one team or the other—sometimes both—making a big run to swing momentum in their direction.
UNC had one of those early in the second half, a 13-0 stretch to take the lead and come all the way back from the early 20-8 deficit and many double-digit-point holes during the first half.
Then Duke saved its rally for the final minutes of regulation, going on an 14-4 run in the final 3:51 to force overtime.
If this was the first time this season that the Tar Heels had that happen to them late, it would be easy to chalk it up to the game and atmosphere. Duke was at home and had the crowd to feed off, so a late push seemed inevitable.
"It's not like we drew up anything," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters. "We just said, play, man, just play. Follow your instincts and play."
Yet this wasn't the first such instance for the Heels. It's been happening too much lately, starting with blowing an 18-point second-half lead at Louisville and then faltering in the second half in losses to Virginia and Pittsburgh.
UNC is letting its opponents dictate the ends of games, which is never a formula for success.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.

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