Who Stays, Who Goes for Chiefs in Cap-Strapped Offseason?
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of a handful of NFL teams that are cap-strapped heading into 2015. It’s not an ideal situation, but general manager John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid surely have a plan in place to make it work.
At this point, releasing multiple players is the only realistic avenue the Chiefs can use to get under the cap, afford outside linebacker Justin Houston and make a play for other free agents. The only question is who will stay and who will go.
Getting under the cap should be relatively easy, but clearing the cap space necessary to use the franchise tag or dole out one of the richest contracts for a defensive player in NFL history could cost two or three players their roster spots. Another one or two players might have to go to afford Rodney Hudson and give the Chiefs enough flexibility to go shopping in free agency for offensive linemen and wide receivers.
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Alex Smith
Alex Smith isn’t going anywhere because $11 million of his $11.9 million base salary in 2015 is fully guaranteed, according to Joel Corry of CBS Sports. The remaining $900,000 and his entire $14.1 million base salary in 2016 will become fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year.
Smith’s contract is such that the Chiefs could use it as an avenue to borrow cap space from future years. The Chiefs could convert $10.9 million of his 2015 base salary into a bonus, which would allow the Chiefs to spread it out over the life of his contract.
| 2015 | $1.0M | $6.3M | - | $100K | $7.4M | $15.6M | $8.2M |
| 2016 | $14.1M | $6.3M | - | $100K | $20.5M | $17.8M | -$2.7M |
| 2017 | $10.8M | $6.3M | $2.0M | $500K | $19.6M | $16.9M | -$2.7M |
| 2018 | $14.5M | $6.3M | $2.0M | $500K | $23.3M | $20.6M | -$2.7M |
There is no practical difference for either Smith or the Chiefs in cash, but it does increase Smith’s cap hit in future years. As long as the Chiefs don’t overuse this cap-management device, it’s a great way to save cap space.
In this case, the Chiefs save $8.2 million in cap space in 2015 and increase Smith’s cap hit by $2.7 million in 2016, 2017 and 2018. When the Chiefs have to pay for borrowing from the future really depends on Smith’s performance in 2016 and beyond.
Prediction: Stays
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $8.2 million
By now, everyone knows the Chiefs didn’t have a wide receiver catch a touchdown pass in 2014. For a team that gave Dwayne Bowe a lucrative contract extension two years ago, that’s obviously a massive disappointment.
It’s not all Bowe’s fault, but the reality is that his cost far exceeds his value on the field. With Smith mostly unwilling to throw into traffic, Bowe’s value in the offense is minimal.
The Chiefs also got a break to the tune of $1.5 million when the NFL suspended Bowe one game for violating the league’s drug policy. Bowe originally had $1.5 million in guaranteed base salary in 2015.
| Dead Money 2015 | $9.0M | $3.0M |
| Dead Money 2016 | $0 | $6.0M |
| Cap Savings | $5.0M | $11.0M |
| Date Available | Immediately | June 1 |
There are two different ways the Chiefs could approach terminating Bowe’s contract. The first way is to terminate his contract and save $5 million against the cap, which makes his $14 million cap hit in 2015 $9 million of prorated bonus money, which is also known as dead money.
The second way is to terminate Bowe and designate him as a June 1 cut. This allows the Chiefs to save $11 million in cap space this year by taking $6 million of prorated bonus money as a cap hit next year and $3 million this year. The one caveat is that this doesn’t take effect until June 1.
Essentially, the Chiefs would have to carry Bowe’s $14 million cap hit until June 1, at which time they would free up $11 million in cap space. The Chiefs could use the savings to sign rookies, save it and roll it into future years, use it to sign free agents still on the market or some combination of all three. However, it won’t help the Chiefs get under the cap or sign Houston, Hudson or any other marquee free agents.
Prediction: Goes
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $5 million ($11 million as June 1 cut)
Tamba Hali
Tamba Hali is 31, he’ll turn 32 next season and the Chiefs drafted his replacement, Dee Ford, in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft. Hali’s six sacks in 2014 were also his lowest total since 2008, although one could argue that he was much better than his sack total might otherwise indicate.
Pro Football Focus graded Hali as the 13th best 3-4 outside linebacker, but he also ranked 24th out of 29 3-4 outside linebackers in their pass-rush productivity statistic. There’s no doubt Hali is still a good player, but he’s no longer one worth $12 million per season.
The Chiefs would save $9 million in 2015 by terminating Tamba Hali’s contract. That’s enough that the Chiefs must consider moving on, but it’s also possible they could approach Hali about a pay cut.
Hali may consider a pay cut because he wouldn’t have to move, and he’s been with the Chiefs for his entire career. Hali may be able to get the kind of money he would receive on the open market plus incentives from the Chiefs, which might be a win-win for both sides.
With a deep crop of pass-rushers in the draft, Ford on the roster and salary-cap needs, the smart money is on Hali’s release. The Chiefs can always release Hali and see how much interest there is on the open market before trying to re-sign him—assuming Hali is amenable to returning.
Prediction: Goes
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $9 million
Eric Berry
What the Chiefs do with Eric Berry is one of the more interesting decisions they have to make this offseason. No one knows if Berry is going to return from his bout with cancer at 100 percent in 2015, and it’s the final year of his contract.
If he’s not ready to play, the Chiefs could simply put him on the non-football injury list and not pay him. The problem is they don’t get those cap savings until later, when they no longer really need them. Not paying Berry wouldn’t be very good for public relations, either.
It’s possible the two sides could work something out to pay Berry and give the Chiefs cap relief. That’s assuming both sides agree Berry won’t be fully healthy in 2015.
Where this gets interesting is if Berry isn’t 100 percent, but he is healthy enough to play. The cancer could technically be gone, but he could be weak from the treatments and need a lot of time to get back into football shape.
Would the Chiefs want to pay Berry $8.4 million for one year if he’s not playing like one of the three highest-paid safeties in football? If the Chiefs do release him, and he is 100 percent in 2016, they won’t have a chance to re-sign him on the cheap.
Given the lack of options to replace Berry and the uncertainty surrounding his condition, the Chiefs will probably just let things play out. The downside of doing so is that Berry’s contract stays on the books and doesn’t help them now.
Prediction: Stays
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $5.5 million (Cut or NFI List)
Mike DeVito
Mike DeVito ruptured his Achilles in 2014 and he will be 31 by training camp. Those two facts together should scare the Chiefs—at least a little bit.
The Chiefs certainly missed DeVito last season, but it’s very possible they aren’t getting the DeVito that he was before the injury. The Chiefs had one of the worst run defenses in the league without DeVito in 2014, who was arguably the team’s best run defender before his injury.
Under normal circumstances, DeVito probably comes back, but Achilles injuries are no joke. DeVito’s contract is such that the Chiefs have to consider releasing him and taking the cap savings.
DeVito’s cap hit is $5.4 million in 2015, which is also the final year of his deal. The Chiefs can save $4 million in cap space by cutting him. No one is going to be upset either way on this one, but it certainly seems like the Chiefs should be able to replicate what DeVito brings to the table for under $4 million.
Prediction: Goes
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $4 million
Derrick Johnson
Like DeVito, Derrick Johnson is also coming off a torn Achilles and is getting up there in age. Johnson is already 32, but unlike DeVito, he has played at a high level and isn’t as easily replaceable.
Johnson is also in the final year of his contract, with a cap number of $5.3 million. The Chiefs can save the entire $5.3 million by releasing Johnson, which certainly makes it easier to do from the team’s perspective. Making it harder is the fact that Johnson is still a relative deal at his position if he’s healthy.
Since the Chiefs don’t know if Johnson is going to be healthy, and must plan to replace him anyway because of his age and contract status, releasing him is a very real possibly. The Chiefs will likely wait to see if they can find his replacement and if Johnson can get healthy before making this decision.
Prediction: Stays if healthy, and goes if unhealthy.
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $5.3 million
Chase Daniel and Donnie Avery
The Chiefs brought in quarterback Chase Daniel as a hedge for Smith, but now that they’ve given Smith a lucrative contract, there’s no room left in the budget for a high-priced backup. If Daniel plays his cards right in free agency, he could find a team where he has a chance to start if the regular starter falters.
Wide receiver Donnie Avery simply wasn’t productive enough at wide receiver to merit a cap hit of $3.9 million in 2015. The Chiefs can put the $3.4 million they will save on Avery to good use on the open market and find a player who will make more plays in Reid’s scheme.
With a combined cap savings of $7.2 million, Daniel and Avery are as good as gone, but there are a couple of downsides to releasing them.
Cutting Bowe and Avery leaves the Chiefs dangerously thin at wide receiver, and there is no guarantee they will be able to get one in free agency or the draft. Cutting Daniel means that if Smith misses any time, the Chiefs would have to turn to an unproven commodity at quarterback.
Prediction: Goes
Potential 2015 Cap Savings: $7.2 million
Conclusion
Based on these projections, the Chiefs should save anywhere between $33-45 million in cap space by releasing several players and converting Smith’s base salary to bonus money. That should be enough to franchise tag or re-sign Houston, and would give the Chiefs a fighting chance to sign a few free agents.
Hudson will probably want to test the market, and the Chiefs probably won’t be able to match offers from other teams, but at least they will have the resources to put up a fight for him. Hudson is one of the best centers in the league, so losing him would certainly be a big blow to an already weak offensive line.
The Chiefs probably won’t make any big splashes in free agency because of their cap limitations, but they certainly could be active in the second and third wave with the cap space they can generate. The Chiefs have areas they need to address if they are going to have any chance of winning the AFC West in 2015.
Unless otherwise noted, all contract date via Over the Cap.
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