UFC 184: Preliminary Card Predictions
We're back at it again. That's right, the UFC returns this weekend to pay-per-view with UFC 184. Headlined by Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano, the card is a solid outing, featuring some underrated stars.
As for the prelims, we have some fun fights. From vets like Mark Munoz and Kid Yamamoto to hot prospects like Dhiego Lima and Derrick Lewis, a nice mix of talent should give us some great action.
Let's hope this card isn't as thoroughly awful in terms of picks as last weekend. That bad showing closed the gap between my wins and losses this year, so let's jump back on the horse.
With that, let's take a look at the preliminary card and make some picks.
2015 Riley's Record: 24-13
Last Event: UFC Fight Night 61 (1-4)
Masio Fullen vs. Alexander Torres
1 of 6Kicking off the card on Fight Pass are a pair of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America vets, as Mexico's Masio Fullen looks to send Colombia's Alexander Torres back to the drawing board.
Fullen is the much-more experienced fighter here, as he holds a 9-4 record to the 2-1 record of Torres. A well-rounded fighter, Fullen owns eight wins via stoppage, including four submissions.
On TUF: Latin America, Fullen lost in the first round of the featherweight tournament when eventual finalist Leonardo Morales knocked him out with a kick. Previous to that fight, Fullen was considered one of the two or three favorites on his side of the bracket.
As for Torres, the inexperienced Colombian owns two knockout stoppages in his two pro victories. He took a loss in his pro debut but has shown growth since that fight.
Torres was also eliminated in the first round of the featherweight tournament by Rodolfo Rubio, who tapped him out in the second round. His ground game has a lot to be desired, so he will want to strike with Fullen.
This is a tough matchup for Torres, especially considering the vast difference in skill on the mat. Fullen will close the distance with strikes before planting the Colombian on the mat and earning a submission win.
Prediction: Fullen def. Torres via submission
James Krause vs. Valmir Lazaro
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Capping things off on the Fight Pass prelims are the lightweights, as top-30 competitor James Krause looks to get back to his winning ways against Brazilian slugger Valmir Lazaro.
Krause is a gifted all-around fighter, though his striking has been his bread and butter thus far in the cage. He has strong kicks and good combinations, but it's his underrated ground game that has seen him submit 13 foes to date.
He has had mixed results in the UFC thus far but has taken on some top competition. Though he has suffered setbacks to Bobby Green and Jorge Masvidal, Krause was able to finish Sam Stout and Jamie Varner.
As for Lazaro, he is a member of Nova Uniao, but he isn't the typical mauler on the mat. Instead, he is a power striker who head-hunts, which is the reason he has knocked out nine opponents in 12 victories.
His UFC debut did not go as planned, as a game James Vick outgunned and outpointed him. He will look to reverse his fortunes here, but it will be against a guy who presents a similar skill set to Vick.
Lazaro had two tough opponents to open his UFC career, and this one is likely tougher than them. Krause has top-level experience and the gumption to stay away from the hellfire missiles that Lazaro throws. Krause will hurt Lazaro but not be able to put him away.
Prediction: Krause def. Lazaro via decision
Derrick Lewis vs. Ruan Potts
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Kicking off the Fox Sports portion of this prelim card will be the big boys, as South African heavyweight Ruan Potts searches for his first UFC win against destroyer Derrick Lewis.
Lewis is a power brawler who uses an aggressive style to close distance and land haymakers. His knockout rate is uncanny, as 10 of his 11 wins have come by violent knockout.
He started his UFC career with a bang, knocking out both Jack May and Guto Inocente in vicious fashion. However, in his most recent bout, Matt Mitrione quickly dispatched him, showing the need for Lewis to regroup against a lower-ranked opponent.
As for Potts, he is a grappler with a strong submission arsenal to his game. Once he gets a fighter to the mat, he delivers heavy strikes from top position before he looks to either continue his barrage to the finish or snag a submission.
His UFC career thus far has been a disappointment. Potts was completely outclassed in both bouts, getting smashed by both Soa Palelei and Anthony Hamilton in his tenure.
This fight is tailor-made to set Lewis back up and make him a big deal again. Potts will try his hardest to hold out, but Lewis is too powerful for Potts to survive his offense.
Prediction: Lewis def. Potts via knockout
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Dhiego Lima vs. Tim Means
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Next up are the welterweights, as intriguing Brazilian-American prospect Dhiego Lima looks to continue pushing his stock through the ceiling when he takes on the always-entertaining Tim Means.
Lima, the runner-up of TUF 19, is a well-rounded fighter with good boxing and a strong submission game. He is the brother of Douglas Lima, which shows that he gets great reps in the gym with his Bellator champion kin.
After falling victim to a knockout at the hands of Eddie Gordon in the TUF Finale, Lima came back in a workmanlike decision win over Jorge Oliveira in Brazil. He will need to use his toughness to secure a takedown and work for a finish on the ground here.
As for Means, The Dirty Bird is a striker who uses a wide variety of techniques on the feet. While standing or in the clinch, he will use knees, kicks, elbows or punches, as long as it means inflicting damage.
Since returning to the UFC for his second tour of duty, Means has lost a late-notice bout to Neil Magny but taken fun wins over Hernani Perpetuo and Marcio Alexandre. He will need to bank on his striking here, as he doesn't want to grapple with Lima.
I don't know if Lima has the takedown chops here, but if he does, he will have the advantage. That says, given Means' ability to stick and move, he takes an exciting decision.
Prediction: Means def. Lima via decision
Kid Yamamoto vs. Roman Salazar
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The bantamweights are due to the cage next, as Japanese legend Kid Yamamoto meets up with Roman Salazar.
Yamamoto has been fighting professionally since 2001 and was a trailblazer in Japan. The feared striker has seen better days though, as mileage and injuries have accumulated on the feared knockout specialist.
Unfortunately for the legend, he is 0-3 in the UFC and has not fought since 2012. His tenure has seen him lose bouts to Demetrious Johnson and Darren Uyenoyama by decision, as well as fall in a shocking submission loss to Vaughan Lee in his latest installment.
As for Salazar, the Arizona-based fighter is a jack of all trades, not exactly standing out in one particular art. He is known for having a tight guillotine choke, which he has used in all three of his submission victories.
He entered the UFC on late notice in his debut, falling quickly by submission against top Canadian bantamweight Mitch Gagnon. He looks to shine after a full training camp in this bout, though the odds are likely stacked against him.
The UFC wants Yamamoto to shine here. He is a valuable asset in Japan and a fun fighter when given the opportunity. He should sweep the floor with Salazar here, potentially handing him his walking papers.
Prediction: Yamamoto def. Salazar via knockout
Mark Munoz vs. Roan Carneiro
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Headlining the prelims is a middleweight bout, as Mark Munoz looks to get back into the win column against UFC returnee Roan Carneiro.
Munoz is a wrestler and makes no secret about it. He does have power in his hands, but he is best when he changes levels and puts opponents on their back.
Recent times have been hard on Munoz, who is 1-3 in his last four fights. He did take a win over Tim Boetsch but has been destroyed by Chris Weidman, Lyoto Machida and Gegard Mousasi by various finishes in that stretch.
As for Carneiro, the grappling-based Brazilian is known for his submission prowess, which he puts on display every time he enters the cage. He earned a spot back in the UFC after winning the publicized Battleground MMA one-night tournament, where he tapped out Buddy Wallace, knocked out Trey Houston and decisioned Brock Larson en route to the title.
From 2007 to 2008, Carneiro competed in the UFC five times, earning a 2-3 record in that time. While he took losses to Jon Fitch, Kevin Burns and Ryo Chonan, he was able to beat Rich Clementi and Tony de Souza.
Carneiro normally fights at welterweight but moved up to middleweight to take this opportunity. Couple the superior wrestling of Munoz with his superior striking, and you have a recipe of disaster for the durable Carneiro.
Prediction: Munoz def. Carneiro via decision
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