How Concerning Are Jahlil Okafor's Defensive Struggles?
Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor took control of the 2015 NBA draft conversation fairly early. And his offensive game has done all the talking. Among the advanced post moves, textbook footwork and the soft touch, he's been able to hold the title as No. 1 overall favorite, despite his visible defensive struggles.
It's almost as if they've been documented as a weakness and put in a back pocket to worry about later. According to ESPN's Chad Ford, all the general managers he's talked to still have Okafor atop their boards. "Every team I spoke with has Okafor as the No. 1 pick," says Ford. "When there is no clear No. 1 pick, teams tend to focus on team needs instead of overall talent. However, when there's a clear-cut No. 1, needs tend to go out the window."
Those that view Okafor as the top prospect in America must believe in the power of his offensive game and the defensive tools he has to improve with. And maybe they should. He's only 19 years old, and at 6'11" with a massive 7'5" wingspan and high basketball IQ, Okafor possesses all the attributes typically shared by NBA anchors.
So then why hasn't he been more effective defensively at Duke?
Okafor has been exposed throughout the season, both in rim protection and containing pick-and-rolls. There are only so many ways to break down defense with numbers, but no matter which way you look at it, Okafor has scored poorly on the stat sheets and the eye test.
Rim Protection
He hasn't exactly been a liability in rim protection—according to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz, he's holding opponents to just 45.5 percent shooting at the rim. Although as Schmitz points out, with schools like Presbyterian, Fairfield, Furman, Army, Elon, Toledo and Wofford on the schedule—teams whose centers average around 6'9" in height—it's tough to take that number seriously, given Okafor's far superior size and length.
On film, Okafor has raised questions regarding his ability to protect the rim.
From a scouting perspective, the first thing that stands out is Okafor's lack of lift. He just doesn't get off the ground very high. Often times, he appears to be in position to make a challenge or play on the ball—only for the scorer to finish over the top without having to adjust.
Call it weak effort or poor anticipation, but sometimes, he just doesn't react swiftly enough.
Compared to Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns, who's also looking to make a case as the No. 1 prospect in the country, Okafor has 19 fewer blocks despite playing 239 more minutes.
Okafor's 4.6 percent block percentage is abnormally low relative to the block percentages that current NBA big men put up in college.
Of all the centers in the NBA who spent time at the Division I level, only Mason Plumlee and Nikola Vucevic left college their final year with lower block percentages than Okafor. And in the pros, both Plumlee and Vucevic allow their opponents to shoot 54 percent at the rim.
That analysis isn't entirely fair, considering some centers had the chance to improve their numbers after two to four years, and Okafor is expected to leave after one. If he ended up staying another few seasons, Okafor would have the opportunity to improve on his block percentage number too.
However, I counted 12 current NBA big men who left school after just one season, and none of them had a block percentage as low as Okafor's.
The players coded in black were one-and-done with college, just as we suspect Okafor to be:
Vucevic is the only noteworthy name at the bottom of the list with Okafor. He's turned into a high-quality center averaging 19.6 points and 11.3 rebounds so far this season. But only two teams in the league allow opponents to shoot better percentages at the rim than the 17-39 Orlando Magic, and that has to reflect somewhat on Vucevic, who patrols the paint for 34.3 minutes per game.
The big question is whether Okafor will ever be able to justify No. 1 overall value as a mediocre rim protector. Though there are a few exceptions, for the most part, you don't see too many low-level interior defenders suddenly evolve into overly disruptive ones later on.
Looking around the league, only Vucevic, Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe and Nikola Pekovic have really approached star territory as centers who aren't imposing rim protectors or shot-blockers.
With similar defensive limitations, how much higher can Okafor's ceiling reach compared to theirs? That's a question the 2015 lottery winner will surely have to ask.
Pick-and-Rolls
Defending pick-and-rolls has been an adventure for Okafor all season. Teams have even targeted him in an attempt to pull him away from the basket and expose his not-so-quick lateral foot speed.
It got to the point where Duke even switched to zone, something coach Mike Krzyzewski doesn't often play.
“If you watch Duke, you know why they got beat,” Louisville coach Rick Pitino told Sports Illustrated's David Gardner. “They got beat with high pick-and-rolls. But they were playing zones. It was a smart move because it takes away from Okafor having to come out.”
Okafor's issues stem from a lack of side-to-side mobility. After the initial screen is set, guards have had easy times turning the corner or simply blowing by him.
Okafor's vulnerability defending around the arc has naturally led to him sagging back in order to take away the drive.
And that's a strategy that can work—when Okafor's man (the screener) isn't a threat to shoot from outside. But pick-and-pop big men have given Duke and him trouble.
Once the pick has been made and the screener pops out for a jumper, Okafor has been hesitant to close out hard, with the fear that the shooter can put the ball on the floor and drive right by. This leads to open, high-percentage outside looks, whether it's over a chasing Okafor who's too far away or a switching guard who isn't tall enough to contest.
Reading pick-and-rolls in general has also caused Okafor some trouble. You'll occasionally see him get caught frozen in no-man's land—not knowing whether to show and cause the ball-handler to hesitate or to retreat back to the screener.
In the NBA, Okafor will be seeing a ton of pick-and-rolls. And given the emphasis on stretch big men in today's game, he'll be covering centers who can step out to 20-plus feet away, where he isn't particularly comfortable.
Okafor should ultimately have an easier time improving pick-and-roll coverage than rim protection. The more reps he gets and scenarios he sees, the better he's likely to get at anticipating. But based on where he is now, Okafor could be looking at a tough rookie year defensively.
Conclusion
Chances are Okafor could step onto an NBA floor tomorrow and bang for points and boards. He's just too big and skilled, while his feel for the game is second to none.
But given the position he plays and the responsibilities that come with being a center, not being able to protect the rim could really weigh on his NBA value. There just aren't many centerpiece or franchise-type big men who also struggle defensively.
It doesn't mean he's destined to be a bust. Al Jefferson, a pretty solid Okafor comparison, is a terrific NBA center. But would you take him No. 1 if that's the type of ceiling we're looking at?
A general manager who's searching for a sure thing and who's unimpressed with the rest of the field should. But if this year's lottery winner wants to take a home-run swing, Okafor's defensive woes have to diminish his appeal as the first pick in the draft.
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