Predicting the Winner of Every NASCAR 'Pre-Chase' Race in 2015
As the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season beckons at Daytona International Speedway, it's time to take a race-by-race look at who will win each of the 26 pre-Chase for the Sprint Cup events.
Can Dale Earnhardt Jr. repeat his stunning Daytona 500 victory of a year ago? Will Kevin Harvick put himself in position to successfully defend his 2014 Cup title? Can Jeff Gordon win in what he already has announced as his final Sprint Cup season?
Read on to find out (or to see if you agree with at least some of our predictions).
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Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, Feb. 22
Denny Hamlin. Last year Hamlin won just about everything during Speedweeks but the race that mattered most. This year, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver will get to Victory Lane with new crew chief Dave Rogers, who moved over to the No. 11 FedEx Toyota after spending the last five-plus years on top of Kyle Busch’s pit box for JGR.
Quik Trip Folds of Honor 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, March 1
Carl Edwards. It won’t take Edwards long to get his first win in his new ride as one of Hamlin’s JGR teammates. He’s won three times previously at this 1.5-mile venue, and his new crew chief, Darian Grubb, helped Hamlin get to Victory Lane here in 2012 and Tony Stewart do the same in 2010.
Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, March 8
Jimmie Johnson. If you’re a gambling man (or woman), don’t bet against six-time Sprint Cup champion Johnson at this 1.5-mile track. Johnson has won here four times and hasn’t finished lower than sixth in four of the last five races it has hosted.
CampingWorld.com 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway, March 15
Kevin Harvick. The defending Cup champion has absolutely owned this tricky one-mile track of late, sweeping both races last year and winning four of the last five overall. But he’ll likely have to overcome strong challenges from both Johnson and Edwards to win again.
Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway, March 22
Kyle Larson. Last year’s Rookie of the Year nearly notched his first career Cup win on this two-mile track in Fontana, California, finishing second behind winner Kyle Busch. It’s only a matter of time until Larson starts winning races. Why not start here?
STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway, March 29
Jeff Gordon. You didn’t think Gordon would get shut out during his final season, did you? This .526-mile short track shaped like a paper clip, where he has won eight times in his storied career (including the fall Chase race in 2013), is as sure a bet as any to get the retirement party started.
Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, April 11
Jimmie Johnson. Someone needs to be the first repeat winner in 2015, and Johnson is a solid choice at this 1.5-mile track where he has won three of the last five races. Edwards could be his strongest challenger.
Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, April 19
Kyle Busch. It may take a bit for the younger of the Busch brothers to jell with his new JGR crew chief, Adam Stevens. But sooner or later, they will start transferring some of the magic that they displayed in what is now the Xfinity Series to Sprint Cup. Plus, Busch has won five times and led more than 1,500 laps in his career at this short track.
Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway, April 25
Denny Hamlin. It’s been since 2010 that Hamlin has won at his home track, and he’s actually struggled mightily while finishing 18th or worse in each of his last four starts at the .75-mile short track. But that can’t last forever, and he’s overdue to notch career win No. 3 here.
GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, May 3
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes, we know he finished 26th and 31st, respectively, in the two 2014 races held at the unpredictable 2.66-mile superspeedway. But he finished second in the fall of 2013 and has won five times overall. Plus he wants desperately to prove that last year was no fluke and that he can still win races with new crew chief Greg Ives.
Kansas 400 at Kansas Speedway, May 9
Brad Keselowski. After a stretch of five consecutive races in which he finished 11th or better (including a win in 2011), Keselowski hasn’t fared as well at the 1.5-mile track in his last three starts. But he actually led laps in each of those races. And in two of them, he led more laps than during any other Kansas start in his career.
Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, May 24
Kasey Kahne. He last won at this 1.5-mile track in 2012 when he captured the Coca-Cola 600. But he owns four career wins at the track overall and will get to Victory Lane sooner rather than later with new crew chief Keith Rodden. (It will be the first time since 2005 Kahne has not had Kenny Francis calling the shots atop his pit box.)
Dover 400 at Dover International Speedway, May 31
Jimmie Johnson. No one is better than Six Time at this one-mile track, where Johnson’s eight career victories are the most in the history of the sport. He and crew chief Chad Knaus intend to make a strong run at what would be a record-tying seventh Cup championship. That means first and foremost taking care of business at venues where they’ve traditionally run well.
Axalta "We Paint Winners" 400 at Pocono Raceway, June 7
Joey Logano. Yes, we know Earnhardt Jr. swept both races at this 2.5-mile tri-oval last season. But Logano won here in 2012 and won’t be locked out of Victory Lane for long in 2015 after winning a career-high five races and making the Championship 4 in last year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway, June 14
Matt Kenseth. The truth is he used to run much better in a Ford for Roush Fenway Racing than he has in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing at MIS. But he still owns two career wins here, and he won’t go another season without winning at least one race, as was the case in 2014 after he won a career-high seven in 2013, his first year with JGR.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, June 28
AJ Allmendinger. JTG Daugherty co-owner Brad Daugherty is surely counting on Allmendinger to win at least one of the two road-course races, which he will, beginning here.
Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway, July 5
Carl Edwards. It’s difficult to believe that Edwards has never won at DIS, NASCAR's crown-jewel track. This is where he changes that and continues a banner first year with JGR and Grubb.
Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway, July 11
Brad Keselowski. When the summer heats up, so will Keselowski. In four career starts at the 1.5-mile track, Bad Brad has won twice and led more than a third of the laps he’s completed.
New Hampshire 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, July 19
Joey Logano. What can we say? The kid is from New England, and he loves the lobstah that comes with a victory here. Having won twice on the 1.058-mile circuit already in his career, including last fall’s Chase race, he knows his way to the boiling pot.
Crown Royal 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, July 26
Tony Stewart. What better story could there be than Stewart finally getting back to Victory Lane at the Brickyard? After a tumultuous 2014 that Stewart would like to forget, a win like this in his home state would be unforgettable for all the right reasons.
Pennsylvania 400 at Pocono Raceway, Aug. 2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Hey, if he swept both races at this track in 2014, he certainly can win one of its two races in 2015. It took Earnhardt Jr. a long time to figure out the Tricky Triangle; he’s not likely to forget what he finally figured out last season so quickly.
Cheez-It 355 at The Glen, Watkins Glen International, Aug. 9
Brad Keselowski. It’s amazing that Keselowski has yet to win on this road course in Cup, considering he finished second three straight times in 2011, 2012 and 2013 while waging epic battles with Kyle Busch and others. This time, he’ll have to deal with Allmendinger, but it’s his time to go to Victory Lane here.
Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway, Aug. 16
Dale Earnhardt Jr. It used to be this was the only place it seemed Junior could win. The truth is he won here in 2008 and again in 2012, but no place else in between—but he’s finished in the top seven overall in four of his last six starts at the two-mile track and is always a threat.
IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, Aug. 22
Carl Edwards. He already owns three career wins at the .533-mile short track and will be gearing up for a Chase, knowing that he will have his first real shot at a championship since losing out on one to Stewart on a tiebreaker and finishing second in 2011. This gets him win No. 3 on the season.
Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, Sept. 6
Kyle Larson. Just before the Chase is about to commence, Larson will make sure everyone knows he’s a contender for the championship by winning again at arguably NASCAR’s toughest track. He finished eighth last year in his first career Cup start at the 1.366-mile track that was built in 1950 for pure racers just like him.
Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, Sept. 12
Clint Bowyer. In an ironic twist, the driver who gave us SpinGate back in 2013 breaks a lengthy winless streak (he heads into this season not having won a race since he won three in 2012) to qualify for a run at the title. Hey, there is no doubt the Chase will be more fun with him than it would be without him.
For those keeping score at home, that's 15 different winners over the course of the season, leaving room for Ryan Newman (or someone else) to sneak into the 16-driver Chase field again without actually winning a race over the "regular season."
Last year Newman and Kenseth both made it into the Chase without a victory, and Newman ended up within an eyelash of winning the championship when he finished second to Harvick in the Championship 4, winner-takes-all season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Four different drivers (Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., Edwards and Keselowski) are predicted here to win three pre-Chase races apiece, while three others (Hamlin, Larson and Logano) are predicted to win two each.
What does it all mean? Probably not much. But with the season-opening Daytona 500 nearly upon us, it's sure to stir debate and be a conversation starter—for whatever that's worth.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about that and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as assisting in coverage of NASCAR as a writer and editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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