Mel Kiper NFL Mock Draft 2015: Notable Picks from ESPN Guru's 2nd Mock

NFL draft season doesn't officially kick off until the scouting combine in Indianapolis starting on February 17, but for outside observers, the release of a new mock draft from ESPN's Mel Kiper is all they need to get in the spirit. 

On February 11, Kiper finally unveiled his second mock draft. As you would expect in the four weeks he's had to go over film and continue studying prospects, there are some notable changes. That's what makes this process so fascinating to watch, as players will gain or lose steam the more you watch them. 

There's also the question of matching a prospect to what a team needs. It's easy to say Team X needs to find an inside linebacker, but if the value isn't there in Round 1, does anyone benefit from reaching? 

Here's what Kiper thinks will happen with the first 32 picks in this year's draft, which takes place on April 30, as well as thoughts on some of his notable selections. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
12	Cleveland Browns	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
16	Houston Texans	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
17	San Diego Chargers	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
25	Carolina Panthers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
26	Baltimore Ravens	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
27	Dallas Cowboys	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
28	Denver Broncos	Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami
29	Indianapolis Colts	La'El Collins, OT, LSU
30	Green Bay Packers	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
31	Seattle Seahawks	Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
32	New England Patriots	Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan

The Fall of Marcus Mariota

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Just as his ESPN colleague Todd McShay did in his second mock draft, Kiper has Marcus Mariota falling to the New York Jets at No. 6. Where McShay had Mariota originally going first, Kiper's initial projection was the 2014 Heisman winner was going second to Tennessee. 

Kiper's only knock against Mariota was wondering if the success in Oregon's offense could translate to the NFL. The ESPN guru was quick to point out that Mariota will curry favor in a lot of circles because of "his skill set and his tremendous athletic ability combined with a great temperament and work ethic."

The rising sentiment about Mariota as more analysts have watched him on tape is wondering all the things you need to succeed in the NFL are really there. Dane Brugler of CBS Sports basically summed up the Heisman winner's skills and attributes in one tweet:

Numbers in college are nice, as Mariota can attest, but there's a difference in what happens at that level and at the professional level. It's why not every successful player in college can find success in the NFL. 

Not everyone is "down" on Mariota as the draft process takes shape. Eric Galko of the Sporting News has the Oregon star ranked as the top quarterback in this class. He doesn't dive into great detail, but it's not hard to imagine why when you consider the raw physical tools and strong character. 

For all the tools Jameis Winston shows on the field, there's the question of how long he will last in the NFL before some off-field scandal pops up. He may turn out to be a model citizen, but his tenure at Florida State doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. 

It's strange to think that being the No. 6 overall pick is a "disappointment," though that could be the case for Mariota. Not only would he be going to an insane situation in New York, where the media will be all over him from day one, but there's not a lot of help at skill positions to help him thrive early. 

No quarterback in this class will work harder to succeed than Mariota. Hopefully, he's able to find a situation that makes the most out of his unique ability to make plays with his arm or legs. 

Wide Receiver Overload

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Last year, in what could turn out to be the greatest wide receiver draft in history, five players at the position were taken in the first 32 picks. It was a sign of how much teams need to fill that spot, as well as a testament to the talent available. 

If Kiper's second mock is to be believed, teams continue to search for playmakers on the outside in droves. He's got seven wide receivers going in the first 32 picks, while Maxx Williams is a tight end projected to Baltimore at No. 26. 

The list of names is, for the most part, players who have already popped up on the radar. Amari Cooper going to Oakland at No. 4 is starting to feel like the lock of the first round. Kevin White and DeVante Parker are borderline top-10 talents. 

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Kiper's surprise names are Breshad Perriman going to San Francisco at No. 15 and Phillip Dorsett to Seattle at No. 31. 

The rationale for Perriman going from "one of the bigger sleepers" to a mid-first round pick is the Central Florida standout "is going to run really fast at the combine and be a guy who can both stretch defenses vertically and also make plays over the middle and in traffic."

As you can imagine, there was a blowback to Kiper putting Perriman in the first round. Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated was skeptical, to say the least, of the selection:

Using CBS Sports' draft rankings, Perriman is currently the No. 16 wide receiver and projected to go in the third or fourth round. 

NFL Network's draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had this brief scouting report on Perriman in response to a fan question on Twitter:

While the Perriman pick is likely to be what everyone talks about from this mock, Dorsett at No. 31 seems to be justifiable. The Miami product was a standout at the Senior Bowl workouts last month, per Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com:

"

The two fastest receivers at the Senior Bowl, both Smith and Dorsett are expected to turn in 40-yard dash times around 4.4 seconds.

...

Dorsett, who is on the South team, has had no such problem showing off his speed. The 5-foot-10, 183 pound receiver was one of the best players on the field Wednesday, making a number of big plays down the field. Dorsett finished last season with 36 catches for 871 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 24.2 yards per catch.

"

Speed and big plays are two things the Seahawks have been missing from their wide receivers throughout the Russell Wilson era. Percy Harvin was supposed to fill that role, but injuries prevented that from happening before Pete Carroll dumped him to New York early in 2014. 

Given the skills Dorsett showed in his first major test, as well as what is likely to happen when he runs a 40-yard dash at the combine, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him move up higher than No. 31 as this process moves along. 

Whatever your immediate feelings on seeing so many wide receivers taken in the first round, it's undeniable that teams are taking steps to build offenses that take advantage of the league's pass-first approach to success. 

Melvin Gordon's Ascent

The story of running backs taken early in the NFL draft, especially lately, isn't pretty. Speaking strictly about the first round, look back to the 2012 class when three running backs were taken in the first round. It's not pretty, as Trent Richardson (No. 3), Doug Martin (No. 31) and David Wilson (No. 32) are carrying the burden. 

Wilson was forced to retire prior to the start of 2014 due to injury problems. Richardson was traded from Cleveland to Indianapolis early in his second season and has reportedly drawn the ire of Colts' coaches. Martin is the only moderately successful player in the group, but he hasn't been productive since his rookie year. 

Look at the players who led the NFL in rushing last season. Marshawn Lynch was the only player who had more than 1,000 yards that was drafted in the first round. 

With that recent track record, it's not hard to figure out why teams shy away from running backs in the first round. There is certainly momentum building for Melvin Gordon to buck that trend this year, though Kiper has the Wisconsin superstar going higher than anyone I have seen thus far. 

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San Diego certainly needs help at running back after injuries and poor play caused Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown to fall off a cliff. Kiper cites the lack of depth at the position for the Chargers, as well as Gordon's success even when he was the only threat Wisconsin had, as his reasons for making the pick. 

Gordon is hard to place in this draft, as there's no clear consensus on him right now. Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk basically illustrates the headaches over what to do with the 2014 Heisman runner-up in this tweet:

It does seem likely that a running back like Gordon will go in the first round, but No. 17 overall feels too soon. The Chargers have more pressing needs on the offensive line and defensive front, so why invest this particular pick in Gordon when it's not out of the question that Todd Gurley will be available in the second round?

Even though Gordon is the healthy runner and more likely to suit up in Week 1, Gurley is the wild card that changes this equation. If teams believe the Georgia star is rehabbing properly and like what they see in his medical records, Gordon could slip further as clubs wait to select the other star runner in this class. 

For now, until all the workouts happen, Gordon should be listed as the top running back and a borderline first-round talent. Kiper obviously sees more than that in this young man, so it's not insane to think he could continue to rise as the process moves along.