What Would Champions League Qualification Mean for Southampton?

The Champions League is something of a closed circle. Like a U2 tour, it only tends to visit Europe’s biggest cities, packing stadiums with promise of spectacle and bombastic prestige. Europe’s top table permits few new members, but with just a few months until next season’s lineup is confirmed, Southampton are close to pulling up a seat.

The south coast club have enjoyed a quite remarkable season and stand a real chance of securing a top-four finish. May is quickly coming into sight, and Ronald Koeman’s side sit in third place, just four points behind Premier League champions Manchester City and two points ahead of fifth-place chasers Tottenham.

David Ramos/Getty Images

This run of form from Southampton can no longer be considered just an isolated upturn in fortunes. This is a sustained challenge for Champions League qualification, with Koeman’s team showing scant sign of falling away under the pressure of their situation.

So what would the Champions League and all its glitz and glamour mean for Southampton? Could it mark the start of a dynasty on the south coast, or would a season among Europe’s elite be nothing more than an anomaly? 

Qualifying for the top tier of European football will bring around £50 million of fresh revenue into the St. Mary’s club, which would significantly boost their transfer kitty this summer. But as Liverpool have demonstrated, more money doesn’t always equate to better transfer market dealings.

Instead, the biggest benefit of finishing in the Premier League’s top four this season for Southampton would be the effect it would have on their current squad. It would at least give the club a chance of keeping their best players this summer.

Even if Southampton do finish in the Champions League places come May, the vultures are likely to be circling this summer. Morgan Schneiderlin and Victor Wanyama are among the best central midfielders in the Premier League and will have their suitors when the transfer window opens again at the end of the season.

Graziano Pelle will have attracted admiring glances from across Europe given his goalscoring exerts for the Saints this season, with Dusan Tadic also impressing under Koeman. Champions League football would give Southampton a chance of keeping this calibre of player.

However, should Saints fail to clinch a top-four finish this season, they could find themselves the unwanted subject of yet another transfer market fire sale, just as they were last summer. Could Southampton recover from such an exodus for the second time in as many years?

As Koeman admitted, per Reuters:

"

Maybe it will be a question for these players that they like to play European football and the Champions League.

If there is any interest in these players, it will be easier for us if we play European Cup football to keep them. That’s always an important reason for a player to stay.

I know the situation. We are Southampton and if we are doing well there is always interest in players, and it’s up to the success of the club.

I like this, rather than to be on the bottom and there is no interest in the players.

"

Saturday’s win over Queens Park Rangers, secured in stoppage time by Sadio Mane—another star of the Saints’ season—hinted at the resolve Southampton have in their efforts to make their top-four place stick. Even when they are some way short of their optimum level, Koeman’s side can still grind out the points, like all bona fide Champions League sides.

Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

The upcoming doubleheader against West Ham United and Liverpool could define Southampton’s entire season, with both sides finding their own vein of form as the Premier League season comes to a head. And with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United unable to match Saints’ result at the weekend, the next month or so presents Koeman’s men with a real chance to cement their place at the top end of the Premier League table.

Of course, there are blips on Southampton’s record this season, most recently the home loss to Swansea City. The goals have dried up in certain areas of the pitch, particularly so up front, where Pelle has netted just once in his last 10 appearances. There are signs that the Saints' runaway train is beginning to slow up, even if only slightly.

Yet regardless of how well they are playing, Southampton are doing just enough to keep their noses ahead in the pursuit of a top-four finish. Mauricio Pochettino—the man who took much of the credit for the club’s success last season—might be holding his own at Spurs, but Koeman is outperforming his predecessor in almost every way.

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

It might be slightly early to anoint Koeman as Manager of the Year, given that only 24 games of the Premier League season have been played, but the Dutchman is certainly the front-runner for such an award at this point. Jose Mourinho might have the title in his back pocket, but not even that achievement would match up to Koeman’s at Southampton.

Perhaps what has been most impressive about Koeman’s short time in England is that even in times of trouble he has proved himself. Unlike other managers of a supposed higher calibre (Louis van Gaal, for example), the former Ajax and Barcelona star has maximised the ability of his ultimately limited squad.

As the hectic festive schedule approached, Southampton’s bubble seemed to have burst, with consecutive defeats to Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Burnley. And yet Koeman somehow halted the slide and has driven his team to bolster their place in the top four. 

If Chelsea and City are the Premier League’s only title contenders this season, Southampton are currently the best of the rest. The Champions League might be a manifestation of superficiality, but there’s nothing false about Saints’ top-four challenge.