C.J. Spiller Will Provide Boom for a Bargain in Free Agency

Running backs have been getting the short end of the stick in free agency in recent years. NFL teams have figured out that running backs are relatively easy to find in the draft and their production declines as they accumulate more carries.

It makes C.J. Spiller of the Buffalo Bills a rare commodity, and one such player who should provide his new team with plenty of big plays for an affordable price. The market sets up perfect for someone to get a big-play player for a relative bargain.

This year could be especially tough on veteran running backs, as the draft is deep at the position and two players with big names—Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray—could also hit the market. With several prominent veteran running backs becoming free agents in March, there is just far more supply than demand in a market with a finite number of teams in need of a running back.

By signing Spiller, a team can get a very good player without needing to use a premium draft pick. He also shouldn’t require a significant salary-cap expenditure to sign, even though his production would otherwise suggest he’s due for a lucrative deal.

Spiller’s agent Chad Speck is trying to sell him as a top running back, per Aaron Brenner of The Post and Courier.

"When you look at C.J. Spiller’s first four years, guys with a minimum of 500 carries or more, he’s second all-time in the history of the National Football League in yards per carry," Speck said. "That’s a premier player."

Only one problem—Spiller has played five seasons. Last year, Spiller averaged 3.8 yards per carry in nine games and compiled just 425 yards from scrimmage before going on injured reserve with a broken collarbone.

Spiller said he thinks that's behind him, via Brenner.

"Physically, I’m back to 100 percent, back to doing normal activities," Spiller said. "As far as football, free agency will start in March, and I’ll get with my people next week and get a game plan together."

That game plan will have to consist of trying to make any team interested in his services forget about last season. Tough to do in a league that values what players have done lately more than what they did a couple of years ago, but in Spiller’s case, it’s to their benefit to consider his past.

Spiller had an elite season in 2012 when he had 1,703 yards from scrimmage and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. He was the most elusive running back in the league that year and trailed only Adrian Peterson in yards per carry after contact.

Player	Attempts	Rush Yards	Yards From Scrimmage	1,000-Yard Rushing Season
Brian Westbrook	736	3452	5888	1
Sherman Smith	747	3227	5373	0
Terry Metcalf	748	3438	5300	0
Charlie Garner	736	3490	4587	1
C.J. Spiller	668	3321	4516	1

The only running backs in history with fewer than 750 carries, more than 3,000 rushing yards, more than 4,500 yards from scrimmage and a 1,000-yard rushing season at age 27 are Brian Westbrook, Charlie Garner and Spiller. Only Westbrook and Spiller did it in five seasons.

Three-time Pro Bowler Terry Metcalf and Sherman Smith accomplished the feat without a 1,000-yard rushing season. Spiller’s 1,000-yard rushing season came at age 25, and he had 933 rushing yards at 26. None of the aforementioned four running backs even had a 900-yard rushing season before age 27.

Spiller has also averaged 4.97 yards per carry so far in his career. For running backs with between 500-750 carries at age 27 since the merger, only two running backs have averaged more per carry— Mercury Morris and Stump Mitchell. However, Spiller has more yards from scrimmage than Morris and Mitchell did at age 27.  

Player	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	Yards From Scrimmage
Adrian Peterson	1754	8849	5.05	10375
Jamaal Charles	1043	5823	5.58	7798
DeAngelo Williams	841	4211	5.01	5133
C.J. Spiller	668	3321	4.97	4516
Stump Mitchell	576	2977	5.17	4311
Mercury Morris	512	2892	5.65	3303

If we remove the limit on the number of carries, then Peterson, Jamaal Charles and DeAngelo Williams also averaged more than Spiller’s 4.97 yards per carry. Either way, Spiller is in elite company, and he has low mileage on his tires as an added bonus.   

That is, if a team realizes how to use Spiller to maximize his unique talents. Of all his rushing yards in 2012, 39.9 percent came on runs of 15 or more yards, which trailed only Peterson and Charles. Spiller was also third behind Darren Sproles and Joique Bell with 1.90 yards per route run, highlighting his value as a receiver when used correctly.

In 2013, all of those numbers dropped off under head coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, except Spiller was best in the league with 43.9 percent of his runs coming on 11 carries of 15 or more yards. Take away those big plays, and he averaged a measly 2.73 yards per carry. That’s a lot less than the 3.92 yards per carry on such runs in 2012.

Spiller is clearly capable of big plays when healthy, but he’s not going to be a running back that helps move the chains consistently without good blocking. He has always shared carries with Fred Jackson for that reason, which subverts his value because any team that signs him will also want to invest in a capable companion if they don’t have one already.

The team that asks their offensive line and not Spiller to move the chains will get a steal. Finding a running back who can get 4.0 yards behind good blocking is easy, but big-play ability is very difficult to find and often independent of the blocking.

Year	Carries	Yards/Carry	Rush Between Tackles %	Breakaway %
2010	74	3.8	28.40%	31.40%
2011	104	5.2	55.10%	48.60%
2012	207	6	52.70%	39.90%
2013	202	4.2	56.90%	43.90%
2014	78	3.8	59.00%	40.70%

Even though Spiller only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2014, 40.7 percent of his yards came on rushes of 15 or more yards. That’s not much different from his 2012 and 2013 output.

What was different was Spiller’s usage.

Of Spiller’s 78 carries in 2014, 59.0 percent came between the left and right guard. That’s the highest percentage of his career. In 2012, only 52.7 percent of his runs were inside the tackles.

Spiller was effective getting to the edge in 2012, which also opened up the cutback lanes. In 2014, he was nearly as effective getting to the edge, but the cutback lanes weren’t there. Either Spiller was cutting back when he shouldn’t, the blocking was a problem, or both.

Since the coaching staff wanted Spiller to take the yardage that was there instead of trying to make big plays and the Bills graded out as the worst run-blocking team, both is the likely answer. There’s reason to believe the situation just wasn’t right for Spiller in 2014, but that he could thrive in a different environment.

Injury may have been a factor when he returned for the final two games last season, but he’s actually been durable during his career. Prior to last season, Spiller had missed just three games in his career.

Spiller turns 28 in August, which means he’ll remain a viable running back for at least two or three more years. With relatively low miles, he may even be able to remain productive beyond that if he takes care of his body.

Although Spiller may not be an every-down running back, his ability to make plays should make him an asset to his next team. For what he is likely to get in free agency, he will be a great value.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference or Pro Football Focus.