Ranking 75 Active NFL Players with Best Chance to Make Hall of Fame
Every year, the football voters get to elect five modern-day players to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. This past election saw recent finalists Junior Seau, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley and Jerome Bettis earn enshrinement.
It’s easy to know some of the active players who will make it. Peyton Manning is a lock. So is Tom Brady. Darrelle Revis seems well on his way. There’s no 10-year minimum rule, as is the case for major league baseball. Theoretically, an NFL player could make it by playing just five years—Gale Sayers made it despite appearing in just 68 games.
In evaluating the chances of current players, I looked closely at retired players, both those in the Hall of Fame and those not in, to see how the active players compare to them. If a quarterback throws for 40,000 yards and 250 touchdown passes, those are gaudy statistics, but they don’t mean nearly as much in the 2000s as they did in the 1970s. And if 10 other quarterbacks playing now will retire with similar numbers, it diminishes the value of those achievements.
The usual awards will be weighed heavily—MVP awards, Pro Bowl selections, All-Pro nominations—as well as seasons leading the league in important statistics. In the case of a quarterback, there are plenty of ways to evaluate his game; for offensive linemen, Pro Bowls can often be the be-all, end-all in determining a player’s legacy.
These players are ranked in reverse order from 75 to one, with the first player on the list having a lower chance than the ones after him. Players have to have been in the NFL for three seasons to be considered eligible, so you won’t find rookie standouts like Odell Beckham Jr. or Aaron Donald on this list simply because it’s too soon to even consider their long-term odds.
For young stars like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, it’s difficult to evaluate their futures against that of established veterans like Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. That’s what makes this list highly debatable, as I tried to project a career for Luck or Wilson based on how others with similar accomplishments have done in their first three NFL seasons.
If Luck gets injured this offseason and never plays another game, he’s not going to make the Hall of Fame. That’s unlikely, though, and he’s had no injury history. As a result, Luck is still fairly high on this list. He's ahead of a guy like Carson Palmer (who didn't make this list), because at this point, Palmer almost can't make the Hall of Fame.
Then again, that doesn't mean Luck can coast from here on out and still make it; my projections assume he will continue his elite play. That’s what makes these debatable rankings and highly subjective to change after every upcoming season.
To start, here are five players who just missed the cut: Eric Weddle, Arian Foster, Maurkice Pouncey, Patrick Peterson and Trent Williams.
75. Matthew Stafford
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Matthew Stafford seems to be a cross between Dan Fouts and Drew Bledsoe; for what it’s worth, Fouts is in the Hall of Fame, while Bledsoe is not. But each passed for well over 40,000 yards and routinely ranked among the league leaders in that statistic.
Stafford is just 27 years old. His first two NFL seasons didn’t produce much, as he struggled to stay healthy. But he’s averaged 4,728 yards and 28 touchdowns per year during his last four seasons. That’s 18,912 yards from his third through sixth campaign; by comparison, Peyton Manning threw for 17,011 yards in that same span of his career, and Dan Marino threw for 16,562 yards.
Stafford’s passing yards are a deceiving total, as he has led the NFL in passing attempts twice during that span, and he gets the benefit of playing with Megatron.
But Stafford has several factors going for him. He’s been remarkably durable as of late, having started all 64 games since 2011. He is younger than most quarterbacks entering their seventh year. He’s on a roster with a great defense, which should give him the opportunity to add some playoff wins to his accomplishments.
If Stafford can play for eight to 10 more seasons—very realistic considering he’ll just be in his mid-30s—he should have anywhere from 50,000-60,000 passing yards. Passing yards are an overrated statistic, and Stafford’s legacy will depend largely on his playoff success and ability to enhance his mechanics and develop into a top-tier quarterback. A Super Bowl win will go a long way for Stafford.
74. Joe Flacco
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It seems absolutely ridiculous to consider Joe Flacco for the Hall of Fame, especially considering he’s essentially been a league-average regular-season quarterback since entering the NFL. Of the 19 quarterbacks with at least 1,500 attempts over the last four seasons, Flacco is dead-last in passer rating (82.8), trailing even Ryan Fitzpatrick and everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Andy Dalton.
Flacco has been to just one Pro Bowl in his NFL career, making it this year when every other quarterback in the league seemingly pulled out. But Flacco will have several factors that could get him some consideration when he retires.
First, he’s as durable as they get. Flacco has never missed a game in his seven NFL seasons; the only other quarterbacks to start every game during that span are Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. Flacco’s Hall of Fame status will depend largely on how the voters view the younger Manning; like Eli Manning, Flacco brings with him loads of playoff success.
He’s been to the playoffs every year of his career but one. He’s won a postseason game every time he’s made it, tying Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady for the longest streak in history (six years). He won a Super Bowl—and the game’s MVP award—with one of the greatest postseason stretches in league history, tossing 11 touchdowns to no interceptions in 2012.
Flacco doesn’t even come close to having the regular-season success to make the Hall of Fame at this pace, so even if he finishes with a high volume of passing numbers (50,000 yards and 300 touchdown passes), he will probably need another Super Bowl ring and maybe two more appearances to earn enshrinement. Even then, he may just not be good enough.
73. Roddy White
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After looking like a colossal first-round bust for two seasons, Roddy White ended up being one of the best receivers of the last decade.
White’s 9,405 receiving yards are the fourth most in the league since 2007, and White has made four Pro Bowls during that span. He’s caught 80 passes seven times and led the league in receptions once.
What will keep White from making the Hall of Fame is that he just falls short in comparison to players like Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. White started to show signs of decline the past two seasons, and at age 33, it’s doubtful he sees a career revival. He’s a perfect candidate for the Hall of Very Good.
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72. Marshal Yanda
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Fresh off an absolutely dominant season, Marshal Yanda is playing the best football of his life. He's rated by Pro Football Focus as the game’s best guard—by far—earning his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl selection and first All-Pro nomination. He's a top-50 player in the NFL right now.
Yanda’s impact on the 2014 Baltimore Ravens was inevitable, helping Justin Forsett put together a career year. Yanda will need at minimum four or five more strong seasons before he’s garnering serious consideration.
71. LeSean McCoy
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I addressed LeSean McCoy’s Hall of Fame odds at length in this piece written before the season. While he was inconsistent for the first half of 2014, McCoy settled down behind a restored offensive line and added 1,300 rushing yards and another Pro Bowl selection to his name.
Staying in Philadelphia is McCoy’s best shot; the Chip Kelly offense has proved to get the best statistics out of nearly every offensive player on the roster, and McCoy has been no exception. He averaged 79.6 rushing yards per game in Andy Reid’s final two seasons, and he’s at 91.4 so far with Kelly.
A couple of shining postseason games would go a long way for McCoy, who has underperformed in his playoff career. It’s notoriously difficult to predict how long a running back’s career will last, especially a 26-year-old one, but McCoy is on the right track.
70. Robert Quinn
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Obviously, it’s still early in his career for Robert Quinn, as he’s only 24 years old. He’s played four seasons and, after playing sparingly as a rookie, has really broken out the last three.
He’s registered 40 sacks his last three years, including a ridiculous 19-sack, seven-forced fumble campaign in 2013. That’s unbelievable for a man who literally survived a brain tumor inside his head.
If Quinn can continue playing at a high level for many more seasons—and he’s shown no signs of injury since entering the NFL—he will have a strong Hall of Fame case.
69. Antonio Brown
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It’s difficult to comprehend how good Antonio Brown is, especially considering he’s just 5’10” and 180 pounds. But when he gets the football in his hands, it’s like he’s shot out of a cannon.
Brown dominated the National Football League in 2014, posting 129 receptions (the second-highest single-season total of all time), 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s averaged 94 catches and 1,273 yards per year since ’11, and he’s been to three Pro Bowls during that span.
Receivers of Brown’s size aren’t supposed to be this good; even Jerry Rice was 6’2”, 200 pounds. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, the only receivers in NFL history to weigh under 180 pounds and make the Hall of Fame are three old-timers in Don Maynard, Lynn Swann and Tommy McDonald. This suggests either Brown will fade or become an anomaly.
The way Brown plays though, his success looks like he can sustain it. He’s a precise route-runner and a faster version of Marvin Harrison (6'0", 185 lbs). It will take many more years of success before Brown can receive serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, but as of now, he’s on the right track.
68. Clay Matthews
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In evaluating Clay Matthews' Hall of Fame candidacy, his numbers didn’t jump out as much as I would have expected. Five Pro Bowl selections in just six seasons will go a long way, especially if he keeps it up. But he’s struggled mightily with numerous injuries as of late, whether it be rib and knee injuries, a groin injury or those nagging hamstring problems.
Matthews has played just 16 games twice, missing 11 contests since 2010. His 61 sacks in six seasons rank 16th all-time among a player's first six seasons. Given that Matthews is 28 years old, he would likely need to double that sack total, which means staying healthy. For what it’s worth, his father played in the NFL until he was 40 years old, so maybe this Matthews will have a prolonged career as well.
This Matthews will also benefit from playing on a popular team that did win a Super Bowl and makes the playoffs frequently. He also seemed to blossom as a run-stopping inside linebacker this year, and that versatility will enhance Matthews' legacy.
67. James Harrison
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James Harrison will have an interesting Hall of Fame case. As a sack specialist, his numbers don’t warrant enshrinement.
He’s registered just 71.5 sacks, which puts him 76th on the NFL’s all-time list. But he’s made five Pro Bowls, two first-team All-Pro teams and earned a Defensive Player of the Year award in 2008, when he racked up 16 sacks and seven forced fumbles for a Pittsburgh Steelers team that won the Super Bowl.
Harrison’s famous 100-yard pick-six right before halftime in the Super Bowl is one of the greatest touchdowns in league history, and the Steelers wouldn’t have won that title without it.
Harrison came back this past season and played a key role as a pass-rusher for the Steelers, but it’s doubtful he returns in ’15 at the age of 37. That means what he’s put on the field so far has to be enough to get him in, and it’s likely he falls short.
66. Wes Welker
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Whether you think Wes Welker was a product of the Bill Belichick system or quarterback Tom Brady, what he’s done on the field at 5’9” is phenomenal.
From 2007 through 2012, Welker averaged 112 catches, 1,243 yards and six touchdowns. He led the league in receptions three times. Welker’s five seasons of 110 receptions dwarf the next best: a six-way tie at two seasons.
Welker has also been to three Super Bowls, although his team is 0-3 in the big games. It’s unlikely voters view Welker as a Hall of Fame player. He’s been remarkable at his craft; but it’s a specialized role, and he’s never really been a true No. 1 receiver.
65. Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan might be not much better than a top-10 NFL quarterback right now, but years of sustained success could make a solid Hall of Fame case.
As it currently stands, Ryan has played eight NFL seasons. He’s missed just two games, and durability like that will help him achieve excellent numbers, especially in an offensive era of football and with a supporting cast that includes Julio Jones and Roddy White. Ryan has made three Pro Bowls, and he’s quietly averaged 4,526 passing yards and 29 touchdowns per season since 2011.
Ryan has eerily similar numbers to Philip Rivers during that 2011-'14 span, and Rivers will likely get in.
| Name | Games | Record | Comp % | YPA | TD | INT | Passer Rating | Pro Bowls |
| Philip Rivers | 64 | 33-31 | 65.72 | 7.64 | 116 | 64 | 94.1 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 64 | 33-31 | 65.98 | 7.36 | 115 | 57 | 93.7 | 2 |
The difference obviously is that Rivers was actually at his best in the five-year span prior to 2011; Ryan’s peak came during that span. Like the other quarterbacks on this list, Ryan will need to accumulate a high volume of passing yards and touchdowns. But to really separate himself and stand out in a passing era of football, he’s going to absolutely need a Super Bowl ring.
64. Jamaal Charles
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It seems that most people don’t quite appreciate the greatness of Jamaal Charles. The goal of a running back is to gain yards at an efficient rate, and Charles does so better than arguably anyone who has ever played the position.
His 5.5 yards-per-carry average is the highest in history among qualifying running backs. He’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in every season of his career, and he’s tied for first all-time in total seasons (five) with at least 1,000 rushing yards and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.
Charles has made four Pro Bowls, and he’s rebounded from that devastating 2011 ACL injury to play 46 of the last 48 games. Charles just turned 28 years old in December, which means he may have two to three more productive seasons before his play drops off.
Then again, oft-criticized head coach Andy Reid actually gets the most out of his running backs; like he did with Brian Westbrook, Reid will keep Charles’ carries low and use him heavily as a receiver out of the backfield. That could keep Charles producing into his early 30s.
63. Jahri Evans
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Despite making six Pro Bowls, Jahri Evans is a long shot to make the Hall of Fame. The list of guards to earn six-plus selections in recent years is vast—Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson, Brian Waters and Logan Mankins.
Evans has missed just two games in nine seasons, and that durability will go a long way. Evans also has a Super Bowl ring on his resume, but he’s a likely cap casualty for the New Orleans Saints this offseason given that he’s scheduled to earn $11 million in 2015.
He’s coming off a season in which he allowed an NFL-high 47 quarterback pressures, per PFF, which may indicate his tenure as a successful guard is coming to the end.
62. Mario Williams
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Super Mario’s career has taken off since he signed a $100 million deal to play with the Buffalo Bills. He’s started every game since 2012, averaging 13 sacks per year on arguably the best defensive line in the game.
That’s definitely a career resurgence after the way his tenure in Houston ended—missing 14 games in his final two years due to injury and failing to reach double-digit sacks for his final three years.
At 91.0 sacks, the 30-year-old Williams will need at least four more productive seasons to make the Hall of Fame.
61. Justin Houston
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The Kansas City Chiefs’ fourth-year player threatened the NFL’s single-season sack record in 2014, ultimately finishing a half-sack short at 22. Justin Houston has averaged 12 per season since joining the league in ’11, and he’s been to three Pro Bowls and earned an AP First-Team All-Pro selection.
Houston is a free agent this offseason and will likely command a figure pushing $100 million from a potential suitor. He obviously has a long way to go in terms of career accomplishments, but he’s on the right track.
60. Joe Staley
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Joe Staley is really starting to hit his groove as an NFL left tackle. He struggled with injuries from 2009 to 2010, but he’s now made four straight Pro Bowls and played in every game. He’s signed in San Francisco for five more seasons, and his impact on Frank Gore is evident with every 1,000-yard campaign.
Staley may get lost in the mix of other offensive tackles during this era (Ryan Clady, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jake Long), so he will need to continue playing at a high level to separate himself from the pack.
59. Marshawn Lynch
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The one they call Beast Mode is staking his Hall of Fame case one season at a time. Since 2011, he’s averaged 1,339 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, and he’s given us some of the all-time best postseason moments.
Marshawn Lynch famously ran over the entire New Orleans defense in the 2010 NFC Wild Card Game. He’s won a Super Bowl, been to another and established himself as one of the greatest playoff running backs ever.
Lynch plays a physical style of football and has a lot of mileage on him. Staying in Seattle will ultimately help his Hall of Fame case, as he will assuredly see more opportunities to excel in the postseason. If he does go elsewhere, though, the odds are his new team will have a better offensive line than what he’s played behind while on the Seahawks.
With two more seasons, Lynch can consider himself a pretty sure Hall of Famer. If he retired now, he would probably fall just short.
58. Charles Tillman
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Peanut Tillman has had a solid NFL career, although it’s doubtful he contributes much more on the field. He’s now missed 22 of the last 32 games in Chicago, and he’s a 33-year-old free agent (34 by the start of the season).
Tillman has been one of the better cornerbacks in the league during the last decade, registering 36 interceptions and nine defensive touchdowns. He’s mastered the forced fumble, knocking the ball out 42 times during his career and nearly winning the 2012 Defensive Player of the Year award, even getting support from the United States' president.
Still, Tillman has made only two Pro Bowls, and that doesn’t seem to be enough for him to make the Hall of Fame.
57. Lance Briggs
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There’s a shortage of linebackers in the Hall of Fame, and Lance Briggs certainly won’t get in until his teammate, Brian Urlacher (still not eligible), gets in.
Briggs has made seven Pro Bowls in his career, accumulating 15.0 sacks, 16 interceptions, 16 forced fumbles, seven fumble recoveries and six defensive touchdowns. He probably doesn’t have the name though, despite a strong run of success where he's been the NFL's best 4-3 outside linebacker.
56. Jimmy Graham
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Jimmy Graham’s success has been remarkable when you factor in that he barely even played football in college. He’s accumulated three Pro Bowl selections and two AP First-Team All-Pro nominations in just five NFL seasons, and his receiving numbers would be impressive for even a wide receiver.
Graham has averaged 89 receptions, 1,099 yards and 12 touchdowns per season since 2011. What puts Graham behind Rob Gronkowski on this list is his age—Gronk is just 25 years old while Graham is already 28. Still, every part of Graham’s game looks like he’s on the right track for Canton.
55. Tyron Smith
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Four seasons into his NFL career, it’s looking like Tyron Smith could go down as one of the all-time greats at his position. Obviously it’s early to say, but he’s been voted to two Pro Bowls, paved the way for a league rushing champion in DeMarco Murray and started 63 of 64 games since 2011.
Smith, 24, gets the nod on this list over Trent Williams, who is two years older and doesn’t pass block nearly as well. Smith still has a long way to go before he can garner any serious conversation, but he’s on the right track.
54. Anquan Boldin
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Anquan Boldin has had a truly remarkable career. He ran a 4.72 40-yard dash back at the 2003 NFL Scouting Combine, but he’s still managed to amass over 12,000 receiving yards and 70 touchdowns.
Boldin is essentially a tight end on the field; he’s tremendous at winning contested balls in traffic. He’s never been flashy, but he’s made three Pro Bowls and just put together consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at the age of 33 and 34.
Every time it seems Boldin’s career is winding down, he strings together a few more solid seasons. He doesn’t have the name to stand out against other receivers of this generation, so he may need as many as 15,000 yards to make the Hall of Fame.
53. Nick Mangold
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Even in his ninth NFL season, Nick Mangold is still going strong, and he may have had his finest year in 2014. Mangold is rated by Pro Football Focus as the game’s best center, allowing just seven quarterback pressures in over 1,000 snaps.
He’s now earned six Pro Bowl selections. There’s going to be quite a logjam of centers in recent years, with Kevin Mawae (seven), Matt Birk (six), Olin Kreutz (six) and Jeff Saturday (six) all in the Hall of Fame discussion. Mangold will have to separate himself from that pack to earn enshrinement.
52. Logan Mankins
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Logan Mankins has an impressive list of career accolades. He’s made six Pro Bowls, an All-Pro team and helped the New England Patriots to a pair of Super Bowl appearances. He’s also pulled off one of the greatest ironman feats of all time, playing an entire season with a torn ACL and then the Super Bowl with a torn ACL and MCL.
Mankins was dealt to Tampa Bay in a surprise trade this past September, and that certainly won’t help his chances.
Winning a Super Bowl with the Patriots would have solidified his reputation, and he’s now almost 33 years old on a terrible team. He will need a few more productive seasons to make the Hall, but it’s going to be tougher to make the Pro Bowl in Tampa Bay than New England.
51. Shane Lechler
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This depends how you feel about punters, but don’t take away from Shane Lechler’s greatness just because he contributes in a different way than most football players.
Now that Ray Guy has finally been enshrined in the Hall of Fame, there’s hope for Lechler too.
Lechler has dominated his position about as much as a player can; he’s been voted to seven Pro Bowls, six first-Ttam All-Pro squads and he’s led the league in punting average five times. His 47.5 yards-per-punt average is the greatest mark in league history.
Lechler’s numbers compare very favorably to Guy; in fact, Lechler is a tad better. Guy did play on three Super Bowl champion teams, but there’s really not much Lechler can do about that. It may take Lechler awhile to make it, but he’s got a pretty good chance.
50. Tony Romo
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Tony Romo has taken more criticism than perhaps any other quarterback in the game, but he’s had a truly amazing career for an undrafted free agent who sat on the bench for over three seasons before starting.
Romo has just two playoff wins to his name, but the belief that he’s not a winner is incorrect. His career 75-48 regular-season record gives him a .610 lifetime winning percentage. He’s made four Pro Bowls. His 97.6 career passer rating is the second-best mark in NFL history. He’s completed an incredible 65.2 percent of his passes, the sixth-best figure of all time.
Romo is 34 years old, and he’s undergone a slew of back surgeries recently. His 2014 season was mired by injuries that would keep any other quarterback out (a broken back and broken ribs), but Romo missed just one snap and kept his name in the MVP discussion all year, leading the Dallas Cowboys to 12 wins.
If Romo—whose contract locks him in Dallas for another two seasons minimum—can keep producing at a high level, he’s definitely going to be in the discussion. It will be interesting to see how much the voters hold his lack of playoff success against him. Before this year, there wasn't much to talk about in that category.
"Tony Romo is 1-6 in win-or-done games. Victory was home playoff over Eagles following 2009 season after also beating them at home Week 17.
— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) December 23, 2013"
Romo has certainly had his "Romo being Romo" moments, but he’s also led 28 game-winning drives during his career, including four in each of the last four seasons.
Romo may end up with similar numbers as Philip Rivers, and the two could steal Hall of Fame votes from one another. If that’s the case, Rivers will probably get the edge because he doesn't have the notable blunders like Romo.
49. Russell Wilson
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It says a lot about the former third-round draft pick that he's already on track for the Hall of Fame. Quarterbacks are measured by Super Bowl wins more than anything else, and Wilson already has one ring and two appearances in just three NFL seasons.
As a running quarterback, the risk for injury is always high, but Wilson hasn't missed a game yet. He’s a great pocket passer as well as having the ability to pick up yards with his legs. The Seattle Seahawks have surrounded him with an elite running back and defense, thus limiting Wilson's pass attempts per game to 25 or 30, similar to what the Pittsburgh Steelers did with Ben Roethlisberger back in the day.
Wilson could always regress a la Colin Kaepernick, or maybe he'll get hurt and never regain his elite form. But he seems different than Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III, and chances are good Wilson is just entering the prime of a Hall of Fame career.
48. Rob Gronkowski
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A year ago, it looked as if Rob Gronkowski may be on the Bob Sanders path in the sense that he’s an immensely talented player who just couldn’t stay healthy. Gronk quieted his critics in 2014 though, playing in 15 of 16 regular-season games and earning another first-team All-Pro selection.
Gronkowski led all tight ends with 82 receptions, 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he’s averaged 876 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns per season since joining the league in 2010. He’s still just 25 years old and playing in an offense with arguably the best quarterback of all time, which means Gronk will continue to rack up Pro Bowls and touchdowns with ease.
The key to his long-term success will ultimately be staying healthy.
47. Brandon Marshall
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Brandon Marshall has flown under the radar during his career, having played on three different teams and never in the playoffs.
Still, his numbers speak for themselves. He’s never led the league in a receiving category, but he’s put up 100-catch seasons the way other players get to 70. Marshall has five 100-catch years in his career, tied with Andre Johnson and Wes Welker for the most of all time. Marshall has the sixth most receiving yards ever (9,771) by the age of 30.
Marshall has dealt with hip injuries in the past, and his 2014 campaign ended prematurely due to rib and lung injuries. Assuming he can rebound in ’15 and put together several more solid seasons, he’s going to have similar stats to Larry Fitzgerald and Johnson.
46. Haloti Ngata
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Numbers in themselves won’t put Haloti Ngata in the Hall of Fame. He’s played the selfless role of a 3-4 nose tackle/defensive end, lining up at multiple spots on the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive line to help Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil get the sack totals. As a result, he has "just" 25.5 sacks and six forced fumbles.
But Ngata has been to the Ravens what Vince Wilfork is to the New England Patriots. He’s made the last five Pro Bowls, the streak only ending in 2014 due to a four-game suspension for Adderall. Ngata was a key member of the 2012 Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team as well, which will help his case.
He’s currently 31 years old though, and his time in Baltimore may be coming to a close. He had the suspension last year, and his $16 million cap hit for next year had the Ravens telling him to either take a pay cut or be released, according to Mike Preston of The Baltimore Sun.
If Ngata is released and goes elsewhere, his Hall of Fame candidacy may fade out. He’s in a good system in Baltimore, and voters will look more fondly upon a player staying in one city for his whole career.
45. Eli Manning
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There's no way Eli Manning should make the Hall of Fame. While he's been remarkably durable, he's been just a 59.0 percent passer for his career. He's led the NFL in interceptions three times. His 82.4 career passer rating is lower than Brad Johnson or Andy Dalton. In fact, Manning is closer to Mark Sanchez (74.1) than he is to Joe Montana (92.3).
But Manning—who has never led the league in a single passing category outside of interceptions—will probably get in after a waiting period. He's won two Super Bowls, both against the New England Patriots, meaning he's done what so many other teams couldn't—beaten a dynasty on the NFL's biggest stage. And he's done it twice. Voters will look heavily at that.
Sure, if Manning didn't have David Tyree's helmet catch or the sideline catch by Mario Manningham, he may be ringless and on the outside looking in. But those two plays may be enough to get him in.
He's already at 39,000 passing yards, and he's probably going to have 50,000 when he's done. He'll have well over 300 touchdown passes, and those two numbers compare favorably to John Elway. Manning will be close on voting day, but he’ll probably get in eventually.
44. Kevin Williams
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It takes crunching the numbers to look at how good of a career Kevin Williams—half of the Minnesota Vikings’ Williams Wall—has had.
He’s been to six Pro Bowls and made five first-team All-Pro selections—he’s the 16th defensive lineman in NFL history to pull off that accomplishment, and every single one of them is in the Hall of Fame.
Williams didn’t post gaudy sack totals because he played at a 3-technique defensive tackle position, but still, two seasons of 10 and 63.0 in 12 seasons are impressive for his position. But Williams doesn’t have the name to stand out against other defensive stars of his era, and it’s doubtful his name rises to the top come voting time.
43. Dez Bryant
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The talent is there, and for the last several seasons, Dez Bryant has put it all together. He’s just the third player in NFL history to accumulate 5,400 receiving yards and 55 touchdowns by the age of 26. The other two players are Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald.
Translation: If Bryant can keep it together off the field, he’s going to go down as an all-time great. It still remains to be seen whether Bryant will re-sign with the Dallas Cowboys or whether he will test out free agency.
He’s young and talented enough that he should excel no matter where he goes, but it makes sense for Dallas to re-sign him. Players of his skill don’t come along very often.
42. Demaryius Thomas
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Demaryius Thomas was a slow starter after being taken 22nd overall by the Denver Broncos, whether that was a result of poor quarterback play or Thomas struggling to adjust to the NFL level.
But he’s now completely taken off. Thomas’ 4,483 receiving yards since 2012 are the most ever by a player in his third through fifth seasons in the league. Thomas has started all 48 games during that span. Playing with Peyton Manning has certainly helped, but there’s no reason to think Thomas will fade once Manning retires.
Thomas is 6’3”, 220 pounds with a devastating stiff arm and incredible yards-after-the-catch ability. He’s just 27 years old and still in the prime of what should be a Hall of Fame career.
41. Steve Smith
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Steve Smith isn’t your prototypical No. 1 receiver at just 5’9”, 185 pounds, but he plays with a competitive spirit seemingly unmatched by anyone in the league. Smith has made five Pro Bowls (the first as a return man). He’s had eight 1,000-yard seasons, recently doing it at age 35 with the Ravens.
He’s 14th all-time in receiving yards. He’s 18th in receptions. He’s won a receiving Triple Crown (2005), leading the league in catches, yards and touchdowns. He took over a postseason, averaging over 100 yards per game when the Carolina Panthers went to the Super Bowl in 2003, and he scored the legendary double-overtime touchdown in the NFC Divisional Round.
Will Smith stand out enough against his contemporaries in Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne? He definitely won’t against the first two, but he could still get in if he plays a few more seasons and finishes with over 15,000 receiving yards.
40. Steven Jackson
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Steven Jackson has had a very long and successful NFL career, never dominating but contributing as one of the top running backs over an extended period of time.
His 11,388 rushing yards are the 16th-highest total ever, and he’s added 460 receptions and over 3,600 yards as a receiver out of the backfield. That gives Jackson just over 15,000 yards, which is the most among active backs and 15th-best ever for his position.
Jackson has "just" three Pro Bowls, though, and he’s never led the league in any rushing category. He’s spent much of his career with below-average quarterback play, which has led to a less than spectacular touchdown total; Jackson’s 68 rushing touchdowns are just 32nd all-time.
He’ll likely be viewed more as a compiler than an all-time great, barring a resurgence of any sort in 2015. Then again, Jerome Bettis made it in, although his Super Bowl title likely really helped.
39. Von Miller
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Four seasons into his career, Von Miller looks to be a sure bet for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His 2013 campaign—torn ACL and six-game PED suspension—was one to forget, but even aside, he’s still accumulated 49 sacks, 13 forced fumbles, a Defensive Rookie of the Year award and three Pro Bowl selections.
He easily could have won the Defensive Player of the Year award in his second season—18.5 sacks and six forced fumbles—but unfortunately, his career started at the same time as that of J.J. Watt.
Just five other players in league history have accumulated that many sacks (49) in their first four NFL seasons. Three are in the Hall of Fame. Dwight Freeney appears to be on track, as does Watt.
Considering Miller has already successfully rebounded from a torn ACL, health doesn’t seem to be a concern for him going forward. He’s one of those A.J. Green types who will just need to continue playing at a very high level.
38. Ndamukong Suh
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Through five seasons, Ndamukong Suh is making a strong claim for the Hall of Fame. He’s got the name, having gone second overall in the NFL draft. He’s made four Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro teams in five seasons, and he’s now projected to get arguably the largest contract of any defensive player in league history.
Suh has averaged seven sacks per year since 2010. As a defensive tackle, he’s not going to lead the league, but those are impressive numbers for his role. Suh has been very durable, missing just two games in five seasons. Check back in five years, but it looks like Suh is on a pretty good pace.
37. Luke Kuechly
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Projecting the career of a three-year player is obviously difficult, but Luke Kuechly hasn’t been your average player.
He’s played every game since the Carolina Panthers drafted him in the first round in 2012, winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and then the Defensive Player of the Year award. He’s twice been named first-team All-Pro, and there’s reason to think he can duplicate—or even succeed—the success Patrick Willis has had.
36. A.J. Green
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Four seasons into his NFL career, A.J. Green has accomplished the following: four Pro Bowl selections, four 1,000-yard seasons and 35 career touchdowns.
Green is just the fourth player in league history to accumulate at least 4,800 yards in his first four years—the others are Randy Moss, Torry Holt and Jerry Rice. Green has done this with subpar quarterback play, so there’s no telling how productive he would be if he had Drew Brees or Andrew Luck throwing to him.
Green has been a top-three receiver in the league for the last several seasons, even during an injury-plagued 2014 campaign. In a few seasons, he should rank as high on this list as future Hall of Famers Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.
35. Richard Sherman
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No single statistic tells of Richard Sherman’s dominance to his position more than interceptions: The former fifth-round pick has recorded 24 regular-season interceptions over the last four years. The next-highest total is 15.
Sherman has a Super Bowl ring and two appearances, and no defensive player (maybe J.J. Watt) in the league is more marketable. That will definitely help Sherman’s case, although it isn’t as if he can’t back up his talk.
The 26-year-old Sherman has been named to three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed a total of 16 receiving yards in the past two Super Bowls to the two greatest quarterbacks of all time.
Five or six more strong seasons and Sherman will be in the discussion for greatest cornerback of all time. As long as Sherman can stay healthy, that seems likely.
34. Earl Thomas
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Earl Thomas is one of the brightest stars in this league, and he looks to be well on his way to a Hall of Fame career. He’s a key member of Seattle’s Legion of Boom, earning four consecutive Pro Bowl selections to date.
Thomas has started 80 of 80 games since entering the National Football League. He played through a dislocated shoulder in this year’s Super Bowl. He’s been named first-team All-Pro three times and recorded 16 interceptions and nine forced fumbles in five seasons.
If Thomas can continue his torrid pace, he’s going to be an easy Hall of Fame selection one day.
33. Devin Hester
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If the greatest return man of all time can’t get into the Hall of Fame, it would be very unfortunate. Devin Hester made his mark immediately upon entering the league, taking back an NFL-record six returns for touchdowns as a rookie in 2006 (one of those being a then-record 108-yard missed field-goal return).
Hester added a kick return touchdown to start his only Super Bowl. He brought back a league-record four punts for scores in 2007, and he beat Deion Sanders’ record for career non-offensive touchdowns (20) this past year as a member of the Atlanta Falcons.
Hester has been to four Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro squads. He’s been named to the 2000s NFL All-Decade Team and earned NFC Player of the Week 15 times throughout his career. That kind of an impact should be enough to get Hester into the Hall of Fame.
32. Andrew Luck
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Measuring the future Hall of Fame chances of a three-year player is tough to do, but if anyone seems like he'll one day be in Canton, it's Andrew Luck.
Luck was a surefire, can't-miss prospect coming out of Stanford, and he's lived up to the hype. He's started every game since entering the league, leading the Indianapolis Colts to a trifecta of 11-5 records. He's made a living out of the fourth-quarter comeback, and his 28-point comeback against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2013 playoffs was vintage Luck.
Most impressively, Luck has been winning without a solid supporting cast. He's had just one 100-yard rusher in 48 regular-season games, and his defense had lacked elite performers outside of Robert Mathis.
Luck could always get hurt and miss out, and he will likely need a Super Bowl championship to solidify himself to voters as an all-time great. But as of now, there's reason to believe he will be a perennial MVP candidate and easy Hall of Famer.
31. John Abraham
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John Abraham has had a remarkable career thus far, and it’s likely all over after another concussion that landed him on season-ending injured reserve early in 2014.
"Cardinals LB John Abraham is suffering from memory loss and has been for well over a year, per sources. Could be end of his NFL career.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 10, 2014
"
Abraham has 133.5 sacks, good for 10th-best in league history. He’s never led the league. But he’s racked up a double-digit total in eight different seasons, and he’s earned five Pro Bowls and two AP All-Pro selections. He’s also accumulated 47 forced fumbles, putting him second on the unofficial career list (forced fumbles haven’t always been tracked by the NFL).
Still, does Abraham have the name? It will take some digging around and looking at his statistics to realize just how good he’s been, but after a struggle he may get in.
30. Philip Rivers
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Philip Rivers has been substantially better than both Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning—his 2004 NFL draft counterparts—but he may not be looked at the same because of his team's lack of postseason wins.
Still, don't underestimate how productive Rivers has been. He's a six-time Pro Bowler with a 94.7 passer rating that ranks sixth best in league history. For three consecutive years in the heart of the Peyton Manning-Tom Brady era, Rivers led all quarterbacks in yards per attempt. Even in the playoffs, his 4-5 record won’t stand out, but he’s registered four postseason games with a 100-plus passer rating.
Rivers is 33 years old and doesn’t have a strong arm or good mobility. But he’s incredibly smart in terms of managing the offense, and he should soon get a contract extension with San Diego to lock him up as a Charger for life. It’s tough to envision Rivers missing the Hall of Fame when he hangs up his cleats.
29. Terrell Suggs
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Terrell Suggs will face a difficult logjam of pass-rushing defensive ends and outside linebackers fighting for a Hall of Fame spot.
Here’s how Suggs stacks up against the rest.
"Very interested to see which of these pass-rushers make the Hall of Fame. pic.twitter.com/t41A6LhHuK
— Cody Swartz (@cbswartz5) February 7, 2015"
What stands out for Suggs is that he’s the lone player on that list with a Defensive Player of the Year award. Suggs has a Super Bowl win, and he’s still playing at a high level.
That’s good because he’ll need several more seasons to make the Hall. He’s still barely over 100 career sacks, although six Pro Bowls and counting will garner him serious consideration.
28. Robert Mathis
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Robert Mathis is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, but he was last seen registering a ridiculous 19.5 sacks and 10 forced fumbles in 2013. If he returns to full strength and contributes with a few more productive seasons, he’s definitely going to make the Hall of Fame.
As of now, Mathis is at 111 sacks. Pro-Football-Reference.com credits him with an NFL-record 50 forced fumbles. Nobody has mastered the strip-sack like Mathis, who has made five Pro Bowls and helped the Indianapolis Colts win a Super Bowl.
Mathis has the numbers, but he will have to edge out his contemporary pass-rushers for a berth in the Hall. If he can rebound in 2015 with another productive year, it will boost his chances.
27. Justin Smith
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Justin Smith’s Hall of Fame case has picked up steam over the last several seasons, as his impact in San Francisco has been exceptional. Smith, 35, has now played 14 years, missing just three games. He’s played as a 3-technique tackle or 5-technique end the whole time but still averaged six sacks per year and totaled 87.0 for his career.
Smith has never even had 10 in a year—but Aldon Smith sure has, and why do you think that is? Justin Smith helped the 49ers go to three consecutive NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl. He is a five-time Pro Bowler, and whether he makes it or not, he’s deserving.
26. Dwight Freeney
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In terms of sheer name, Dwight Freeney may stand out more than any other pass-rusher from this era. He’s been a Pro Bowler since he entered the league as a first-round pick in 2002.
Freeney picked up 13 sacks as a rookie, and he’s had a phenomenal career. He’s made seven Pro Bowls, three first-team All-Pro teams, led the league in sacks once and helped the Indianapolis Colts win the Super Bowl.
The fact that Freeney "only" has 111.5 sacks may keep him out. He’s had more than 14 in just one season. His total of 43 forced fumbles is pretty impressive, but he may still fall short—he has just 17.0 sacks in his last four years, which suggests he may be all but done with his career. Considering Kevin Greene has 160.5 sacks and hasn’t yet made the Hall, it could be difficult for Freeney to make it when he’s nearly 50 short.
25. Reggie Wayne
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Logic would suggest Reggie Wayne has a strong case for the Hall of Fame. Even though he will be "penalized" for playing with arguably the greatest quarterback ever in Peyton Manning, Wayne still accumulated over 1,000 receptions, 14,000 receiving yards and 82 touchdowns while making six Pro Bowls.
But then there’s the case of Marvin Harrison. Harrison was the better of the two Indianapolis Colts receivers, and he failed to make the Hall of Fame in his first year on the ballot. That could be because of Harrison’s off-field issues since his retirement, but it doesn’t mean Harrison will never make the Hall.
It could make voters think twice before voting for Wayne, though, and until Harrison gets in, it’s difficult to see Wayne making it.
24. Frank Gore
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The first thing to look at for a running back is his career rushing yards; after all, that’s largely what the voters will use in judging his Hall of Fame credentials.
Frank Gore doesn’t come to mind immediately as a Canton-bound back, but breaking down his numbers shows he has a pretty good chance. Through 2014, Gore is a shade over 11,000 rushing yards. That puts him 20th on the NFL’s all-time list.
Fourteen of the players ahead of him are enshrined in Canton. Steven Jackson is still active, and LaDainian Tomlinson will assuredly make it. That means 15 of 18 with more rushing yards are Hall of Famers, with the lone exceptions being Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor and Corey Dillon.
Gore seems to be more in the class of those last three than Marshall Faulk or Tomlinson. Gore has made five Pro Bowls, and he’s topped 1,000 yards eight times. But he’s only gained more than 1,214 once. He’s played at a very high, borderline-elite level for many years, and voters will have a tough call on him.
As it currently stands, Gore is soon to be 32 years old and a free agent. If the San Francisco 49ers re-sign him—unlikely given his age and the fact that second-round draft pick Carlos Hyde is waiting—it will help Gore's stock.
The Niners have a tremendous offensive line and a running quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who helps Gore out. But if Gore goes elsewhere and doesn’t add many more yards to his current total, he’ll be a tossup.
23. Adam Vinatieri
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It can be argued that no kicker in NFL history has had as much impact on a dynasty as Adam Vinatieri has for the 2000s New England Patriots.
Twice he kicked game-winners in the closing seconds of Super Bowl wins, the first against a 14-2 St. Louis Rams roster in 2001. Arguably, his most impressive kick may have been the 45-yarder in the snow in the infamous Tuck Rule Game earlier that same postseason (and then another 23-yarder in overtime to win it).
Vinatieri was let go by the Patriots after 2005, but he helped the Indianapolis Colts win the Super Bowl in his first year with them. In all, Vinatieri has played in six Super Bowls (the first was with the 1996 Patriots), and he’s been on four winners.
He’s been to three Pro Bowls, been named first-team All-Pro three times and scored more points than all but three players in league history. Even at age 41 in 2014, Vinatieri converted on a league-best 96.8 percent of his field goals, suggesting he still has several more productive years left.
22. Jared Allen
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Jared Allen’s numbers could separate him from the rest of the pass-rushers during the last decade. He’s amassed 134.0 sacks, tops among active players. He’s led the league twice, even quietly putting up the second-highest single-season total (22.0 in 2011) in league history.
Allen has five Pro Bowls and four first-team All-Pro selections. He’s missed just four games to injury in 11 NFL seasons. He turned in his worst year as a pro with the 2014 Chicago Bears, racking up just 5.5 sacks, although his total of 32 quarterback hurries, per PFF, suggests he can still get to the opposing quarterback.
If Allen can get eight more sacks, he’ll pass Michael Strahan for fifth place on the all-time list, and that should lock him in.
21. DeMarcus Ware
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DeMarcus Ware has been flat-out dominant during his first 10 NFL seasons, and the change from Dallas’ 3-4 to the Denver Broncos' 4-3 didn’t hurt his sack total—he registered 10 and two forced fumbles, earning his eighth Pro Bowl selection in 2014.
Just two other players have registered at least 127 sacks in their first 10 years, which puts Ware in pretty elite company. He’s led the league twice, and he’s also done pretty well for himself in terms of forcing fumbles. His 34 mean he’s averaged three to four per campaign.
Ware is one of only two players ever (J.J. Watt is the other) to have multiple seasons of at least 19.5 sacks, and he’s had 10 in every year but his rookie campaign and 2013. Two more productive seasons out of Ware could have him cracking the top four or five in lifetime sacks.
20. Julius Peppers
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Julius Peppers has been an athletic freak of nature during his 13-year NFL career, and his accolades should put him in the Hall of Fame.
Eight Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro selections are mighty impressive, as are his sack total (125.5), forced fumbles (46, unofficially the third-highest total in league history) and 17 fumble recoveries. He’s played well for three teams—the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and now Green Bay Packers, where he’s shifted to the role of 3-4 outside linebacker.
Peppers was quietly still dominant in 2014, amassing seven sacks, six forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, two interceptions, 11 passes defensed and two defensive touchdowns. He’s at 11 interceptions in his career, and just two players in league history have even had 70 sacks and double-digit interceptions.
That versatility and overall dominance should put Peppers in the Hall of Fame, especially considering he’s still playing at a very high level at the age of 35.
19. Vince Wilfork
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When you think of the New England Patriots’ dynasty during the 2000s and 2010s, Vince Wilfork is probably the first name that will come to mind after Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Wilfork was drafted in the first round in 2004 and played a key role on a Super Bowl champion as a rookie. He’s now been to four Super Bowls and won two. He’s a five-time Pro Bowler, and he’s the most impactful player on the Patriots defense in that he allows the team to implement anything from a 4-3 to 3-4 to 4-3 Over.
Wilfork’s time in the NFL is likely coming to an end; he’s 33 years old and can be released easily should the Patriots not want to pay him in ’15. But if he never played another snap, he should still make the Hall of Fame.
18. Ben Roethlisberger
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Ben Roethlisberger will be competing with the other two quarterbacks in the 2004 draft class along with (maybe) Tony Romo for a Hall of Fame spot. What should give Roethlisberger the edge is that he's been to three Super Bowls and won two. The only retired quarterback with two rings who isn't in the Hall of Fame is Jim Plunkett, and Plunkett isn't in Roethlisberger's class.
Roethlisberger has underrated passing statistics despite playing in an offense that has relied more on the running game during his tenure. He's completed an impressive 63.7 percent of his passes for 251 touchdowns against only 131 interceptions.
At age 32, he should be able to play for at least five more seasons, especially considering the Pittsburgh Steelers now have arguably their most talented offense surrounding him.
17. Jason Peters
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A former college tight end and NFL undrafted free agent, Jason Peters is making a strong case for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. He’s thrived since joining the Philadelphia Eagles, and he’s now at seven Pro Bowl selections.
There are just seven retired offensive tackles in league history to make seven or more Pro Bowls and not make the Hall of Fame. Orlando Pace will assuredly make it soon. If Peters gets to eight Pro Bowls (which would take only one more year), he should be a lock. Considering he’s still going strong—Pro Football Focus rated Peters as the NFL’s best offensive tackle in 2014—he could wind up with 10 or more Pro Bowl selections.
16. Patrick Willis
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For the first seven seasons of his career, Patrick Willis was the model of NFL consistency. He made the Pro Bowl every year and earned five AP first-team All-Pro selections.
Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, just 15 players in league history have gone 7-of-7 in Pro Bowls after joining the league. Willis is one of just five players to make five All-Pro teams in addition to those Pro Bowls.
He dropped off in 2014, missing 10 games with a toe injury that landed him on season-ending injured reserve for the first time in his career. Willis may be expendable in San Francisco due to his $8.2 million cap hit in 2015 and the emergence of star inside linebacker Chris Borland.
If Willis is released and goes elsewhere—and struggles with more injuries going forward—his Hall of Fame chances will take a hit. If he stays in San Francisco and rebounds with a few more strong seasons, he’s on his way to Canton.
15. Andre Johnson
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Since the Houston Texans took Andre Johnson third overall in the 2003 NFL draft, Johnson has been everything the team could have hoped he would be.
He’s made seven Pro Bowls, two first-team All-Pro teams and led the league in receiving yards twice. Only Jerry Rice (six) has more 1,500-yard seasons than Johnson’s four. Johnson's 13,597 receiving yards in 169 career games come out to an impressive 80.5 per contest, the fourth-highest lifetime total of any receiver (and the highest of any player who has been in the league at least 10 years).
Johnson is already ninth all-time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards, so even if he never played again, he should be an easy Hall of Famer.
14. J.J. Watt
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When it’s all said and done, J.J. Watt could pass Lawrence Taylor as the consensus greatest defensive player in NFL history. He’s been that good.
You can’t really find bad tape on Watt. He’s won the Defensive Player of the Year award twice in just four NFL seasons, averaging 14.3 sacks per year since he joined the league. And the scary thing is that he literally seems to be getting better with each ensuing year.
The only thing that could keep Watt from the Hall of Fame would be a career-ending injury, and he’s had no injury history.
13. Calvin Johnson
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The one they call Megatron could likely retire right now and make the Hall of Fame. Even if his body really is starting to break down, a few more years will cement him as a top-five talent to ever play the wide receiver position.
Calvin Johnson has made five straight Pro Bowls to date, and he reached 10,000 receiving yards faster than any other player in NFL history. In 2013, he broke Jerry Rice’s 17-year record for single-season receiving yards, actually besting it by a full 116 yards. Johnson’s dominance on the game can’t be traced to a single play, but here’s an example of what he can do, even against triple coverage.
Johnson has struggled with injuries over the last two seasons—missing five games during that span. But even if he puts together just three more years at 1,200 yards per year, that will put Megatron at 14,000 yards. That would be the 10th-highest total in league history. It’s really difficult to envision Johnson missing out.
12. Antonio Gates
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Antonio Gates stacks up nicely in a head-to-head comparison to Jason Witten. Gates has nine Pro Bowls to Witten’s 10, but Gates has made five AP All-Pro teams to just two for Witten.
Each has totaled over 10,000 receiving yards, but Gates’ 99 touchdowns are nearly 75 percent more than Witten’s 57. That’s not bad for Gates, a former undrafted free agent. Even in 2014, Gates’ 12 touchdown receptions were the most he’s had in a season since 2004.
Gates is a near-lock to make the Hall of Fame.
11. Larry Fitzgerald
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Larry Fitzgerald’s career has stalled in recent seasons, but he could retire now and still carry with him a strong Hall of Fame case, especially when you take a look at his quarterbacks.
Fitzgerald’s eight Pro Bowl selections have been surpassed by just two receivers in NFL history—Jerry Rice (13) and Tim Brown (nine)—and he’s a few games away from cracking the top 20 in all-time receiving yards.
Fitzgerald’s combination of size (6'3", 225 lbs) and speed helped him haul in 89 touchdown receptions, twice leading the league, and his 2008 postseason performance (seven scores in four games) was one of the greatest January runs by any player ever.
10. Joe Thomas
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It’s a shame there aren’t official statistics for offensive linemen, because if there were, Joe Thomas would be universally appreciated as one of the most dominant football players of this generation.
Thomas has played eight NFL seasons. He’s made eight Pro Bowl teams and five first-team All-Pro squads. He’s never missed a game. In fact, he’s never missed a snap. He’s the gold standard for offensive linemen, and he could go down as one of the three greatest tackles to ever play.
Thomas is 30 years old and should be able to play for at least five more seasons. Orlando Pace’s failure to make the Hall of Fame could suggest Thomas will wait a year or two, but then again, Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden made it in their first year of eligibility. Thomas should be a lock.
9. Adrian Peterson
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Adrian Peterson is the rare case of a player who looked to have it locked up, but a reported off-field incident has affected his chances. The alleged child abuse won't earn him any points with the voters. He's also an (almost) 29-year-old running back who probably won't be back in Minnesota next season due to his $15.4 million cap hit.
If another team picks Peterson up and he has a productive campaign, he will build his Hall of Fame resume. After all, he's already at 10,000 rushing yards, 86 touchdowns and an impressive 5.0 yards-per-carry average. He's made five Pro Bowls, racked up a 2,000-yard season and a case could already be made for Peterson as one of the 10 greatest running backs in NFL history.
If he never played another down, he has the credentials to still be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It will ultimately come down to how he's viewed by the voters, and it's unlikely the reported events that transpired will keep him out.
8. Darrelle Revis
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If Darrelle Revis retired right now, he should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Revis is as close to a shutdown corner as there has been in this league during his career. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect is that he rebounded from a devastating knee injury in 2012 to regain his form as an elite player.
Revis has been to six Pro Bowls and been named first-team All-Pro four times. He’s made the Pro Bowl for three different teams. He finally won the Super Bowl, playing a key role for the ’14 Patriots. Where he plays in 2015 will still be determined, but whichever team does get him should expect several more seasons of top-notch play.
7. Jason Witten
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A case could be made for Jason Witten as the NFL’s second-best tight end ever behind Tony Gonzalez. Witten has been to 10 Pro Bowls, including the last three at the ages of 30-32.
Witten has amassed ridiculous receiving totals for a tight end—943 receptions, 10,502 yards and 57 touchdowns. Four times he’s caught 1,000 yards in a season. He’s been Tony Romo’s security blanket for the last decade, and Witten is still playing at a high enough level to believe he can get to 12,000 yards.
Unbelievably, Witten hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. There’s no reason to think Canton could keep him out.
6. Troy Polamalu
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There are only eight true safeties in the Hall of Fame, so it will be interesting to see how voters view the next crop of elite safeties come eligibility—Brian Dawkins and John Lynch, namely. For what it’s worth, Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed should be easy locks to make Canton.
Polamalu may very well retire this offseason, and if he does (rather than play somewhere else for a year if Pittsburgh doesn’t want him back), he’ll have wrapped up a fabulous career all in one city. He’s made eight Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro teams and he’s been a key member of three Super Bowl teams (two that won titles).
Polamalu was the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2010, registering seven interceptions, despite actually missing two games. He’s also provided his fair share of postseason moments, notably his game-clinching pick-six of Joe Flacco in the ’08 AFC Championship Game to send the Steelers to the Super Bowl.
5. Aaron Rodgers
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Aaron Rodgers' prime could hold its own against any quarterback who ever played, and he has a shot to go down as one of the five best to ever play his position.
Rodgers has won two of the last four MVP awards, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span (139-25) is otherworldly. He has a Super Bowl ring and is significantly ahead of the next-best quarterback in terms of career passer rating. If he never played another down, he would make the Hall easily.
4. Drew Brees
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Drew Brees has flown under the radar for much of his career, during which he's consistently thrown for 4,500 yards. In fact, since taking over as the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints in 2006, Brees has averaged 4,854 yards per season. He's currently fourth on the NFL's all-time list, with an outside chance to one day break Brett Favre's record.
Brees has a Super Bowl win and nine Pro Bowls to his name. He's tossed nearly 400 touchdown passes, despite being just 6'0" and having to overcome a shoulder injury that threatened to end his career a full decade ago. Were it not for the existence of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, Brees would probably be viewed as a consensus top-five quarterback of all time.
3. Charles Woodson
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Charles Woodson has had a truly remarkable career, and he’s a slam dunk Hall of Famer.
He was a standout cornerback for the Oakland Raiders for several seasons then struggled with enough injuries that he was allowed to leave in free agency. He was even better in Green Bay, recording 37 interceptions over a six-year span that included four Pro Bowls, two All-Pro selections, a Defensive Player of the Year award and a Super Bowl championship.
And now, he’s back in Oakland still playing well as a safety. Prepared to enter his 18th NFL season, Woodson has made eight Pro Bowls. He’s played in 238 games, starting 228 of those. He made the 2000s All-Decade Team. He’s the only player in league history with at least 50 interceptions and 20 sacks (and he actually has 60 picks).
2. Tom Brady
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It's been an absolute joy to watch Tom Brady, a former sixth-round draft pick, play football during the last 14 years.
Brady just clinched his fourth Super Bowl title in his record sixth appearance. Three times he's been named the game's MVP, and he's won the award twice in the regular season. He's been to 10 Pro Bowls, throwing largely to slot receivers like Deion Branch and Wes Welker, and he appears to still have several more years of good football left in him.
He's going to retire with over 60,000 passing yards and 400 touchdown passes, and it's starting to seem like Brady really may be able to play into his 40s.
1. Peyton Manning
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Peyton Manning's credentials speak for themselves: He's made 14 Pro Bowls, won five league MVP awards and set almost all major passing records. The way Manning has directed first the Indianapolis and then the Denver offense is to a near-flawless level.
Manning's career has spanned 17 seasons—and he's likely coming back for an 18th, according to The Denver Post's Woody Paige (h/t ProFootballTalk). You could split his career into two, and you'd still have two separate no-brainer, first-ballot Hall of Famers.
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus. Follow me on Twitter at @cbswartz5, and tell me what you agreed/disagreed with.
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