Will Houston Rockets' Three-Pointer Obsession Backfire?

The Houston Rockets are firing off three-point shots at a record rate. While that has been a part of their reason for regular-season success, is it unsustainable it in the playoffs?

There are two schools of thought here. One would argue that a three is still a three, whether it’s the preseason, regular season or postseason. The other says that defenses in the playoffs are better, more prepared and play harder, ergo the three can’t be leaned on so heavily.

What does history say, though? Let’s see how three-point dominant teams have done previously. Before doing that, let’s consider the parameters. The game has changed recently, with much more emphasis put on the deep ball.

Seven of the top 17 three-point teams of all time are playing this year, and 14 teams are among the top 100, per Basketball-Reference.com. This season, the average team makes 7.7 threes per game. In 2009-10, it was 6.4. In 2000, it was 4.8. So part of the Rockets’ record-setting performance is connected to an overall trend.

Even considering the new standard, though, the Rockets are shooting threes at a surreal rate—33.3 attempts per game and 11.8 makes. That means 34.3 percent of their points come from the deep ball. To see what that might foretell for their playoff hopes, I compared them with the top 50 three-point teams over the last five seasons. Teams with an asterisk made the playoffs. Here are the top 10: 

Season	Tm	3P/G	3PA/G	3P%	Percent of Points From 3
2014-15	HOU	11.8	33.3	35.4%	34.3%
2012-13	NYK*	10.9	28.9	37.6%	32.6%
2012-13	HOU*	10.6	28.9	36.6%	29.9%
2014-15	GSW	10.5	27.0	39.0%	28.4%
2011-12	ORL*	10.2	27.0	37.5%	32.3%
2014-15	POR	10.1	27.8	36.3%	29.6%
2014-15	ATL	9.9	25.3	39.1%	28.6%
2014-15	LAC	9.8	26.1	37.4%	27.5%
2014-15	DAL	9.7	26.9	35.9%	27.1%
2014-15	PHO	9.6	26.7	36.1%	27.2%

Notice how far Houston is above the rest of history here. Over 34 percent of their offense depends on the three, which is nearly two percent higher than anyone else. And only two other teams have even topped 30 percent. Is that too extreme?

I narrowed the field down, excluding this year's teams and teams which didn't make the playoffs. The remaining 31 representatives account for 25.8 percent of all NBA teams but 48.4 percent of postseason ones.

Furthermore, 12 of last season’s 14 playoff teams were included in our sample, and all the ones who made it past the first round were part of it. So it’s clear that three-point shooting isn’t just helpful; it’s mandatory. But is there a point where teams can overdo it?

I looked to see what happened to teams’ three-point shooting in the playoffs and how far each went.

There are some things which indicate that three-point success is an important factor of winning in the playoffs. Of the 32 teams who made it to the second round, 14 were in our sample. Seven of the 16 clubs who made it to the conference finals were. Furthermore, five of the eight finalists and three of the four NBA champs were included in the data set.

Finally, on average, those in the data set won an average of 5.29 postseason games. So it would appear that the trey is an essential tool in the belt. But what happens if it’s too much of a tool, as it appears to be with Houston? I also looked at the same teams, what percentage of their points depended on three and how far they got in the postseason.

The chart below shows the relationship between winning in the playoffs and the three-pointer. The dots further to the right are teams who depend heavily on three-point shooting. The ones further up are those who advance in the playoffs.

It’s interesting that all the teams in the sample who have advanced to at least the Conference Finals are in a “sweet spot,” with roughly between 23 and 26 percent of their points coming off threes.

What else is interesting is that the teams who advanced actually increased the percentage of points they scored from deep on average by 1.4. The teams who didn’t saw their percentage decrease 2.4 percent.

In this chart, the further to the left the team is, the more its three-point productivity fell off. The lower it is, the sooner its season came to an end.

This is consistent with the notion that the teams who are predictable get game-planned and shut down. Defenses know that they're relying on the triple, so they take it away. And correspondingly, the three-point shooting team faces an early exit. 

This looks ominous for the extreme production of Houston. Yes it's helpful to the Rockets' playoff chances, but history indicates their chances of succeeding there are quite ominous. 

This means they need to expand their offense. Donatas Motiejunas needs to do more work in the post. It may be that James Harden’s lethal step-back needs to be taken into the mid-range more. It may be that the Rockets will need to make another trade for a second shot creator who can do more inside the three-point line. What they do is almost moot; they just need to do something other than chuck treys. 

The fact is, this heavy of a reliance on three-point shooting does not have a precedent at all, but teams with far less reliance on it have already shown themselves to be too predictable. If the Rockets don’t get more creative, they are going to have a hard time getting past the second round of the playoffs.