Are Manchester United in Danger of Missing the 2015/16 Champions League?
After spending upwards of £150 million last summer, Manchester United supporters would have thought a 2014/15 top-four finish was all but guaranteed.
Possessing the attacking talent of Wayne Rooney, Angel Di Maria, Radamel Falcao, Robin van Persie, Juan Mata and others, not even an admittedly weak defence appeared enough to stop this barrage of offensive quality, but this season has not gone to expectation.
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In the midst of a five-team battle for two Champions League spots, Louis van Gaal's side must accept missing Europe's most acclaimed club-cup competition for a second straight season is a possibility.
A tight Premier League table is heaven to neutrals; only six points separate third from seventh with 14 matches left to navigate. United play every top-seven opponent—barring Southampton—and with the right results could find themselves clear of the fourth spot, possibly even reaching nearer first place, but their form since Christmas does not exactly inspire confidence.
Winning six consecutive EPL games from 8 November to 14 December—with a goal difference of 10—Manchester United have since dropped 11 points in their last eight games; highlighted by getting out of jail last weekend vs. West Ham United, via Daley Blind's 92nd-minute equaliser.
Not wishing to dwell on last season too much, United supporters will know their club had 40 points after 24 games in 2013/14. Forty-four points after 24 games this season is an improvement from the David Moyes era—but not a drastic one.
Still discovering his best system (as the 3-5-2, 4-4-2 and 4-4-2 diamond debate rages on) and not having his full complement of players to establish rapport, Van Gaal is not just racing against the clock, but the contending pack who are beginning to hit their respective strides.
Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Southampton and Arsenal believe they have legitimate claims to this musical-chair-like scenario, and three clubs will be left wanting a seat come 24 May.
Arsenal—before their 2-1 loss at Tottenham—had won five of six EPL games and Liverpool are undefeated in the Premier League since United beat them 3-0 on 14 December. Spurs have likewise come into form, losing once in their last nine Premier League fixtures—taking 22 of 27 available points.
The traditional "big clubs" likely expected Southampton to fall off in the season's second half, but Ronald Koeman's men maintain their unforeseen status, currently third in the table.
United are not under the same amount of pressure as they were last season, as the Premier League's parity has become advantageous, but unless the Red Devils string together wins over the season's last third, another off-season of difficult questions looms for the United board and their chosen manager.
World-class stars wanting to play at the Theatre of Dreams without UCL nights is its own question, but newer players already on board wanting to stay at Old Trafford for another season is the more pressing question. Ander Herrera has been largely absent, Rooney and Di Maria are playing out of their favoured positions and the Falcao experiment is progressing at a snail's pace.
No doubt wanting to improve his squad this summer, Van Gaal having Champions League's football is of massive import; as potential signings may know the old adage: "If once is a mistake, then twice is a pattern."
Imagining England's best team over the past quarter-century missing the top four in consecutive seasons would have been tantamount to blasphemy but, on evidence, it is possible.
Make no mistake: Manchester United are in danger of falling out of the Premier League's top four, but they have the best chance (outside of Chelsea and Manchester City) at securing a spot—simply because their team harbours goals and Van Gaal has made Old Trafford a relative fortress, losing just twice there this season.
Whether the Red Devils possess the collective mettle to run confidently through the tape, however, will be a matter for time to decide.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase.com where not noted.
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