Is 2015 3-Point Contest Field Best in All-Star Weekend History?
At a time when the NBA All-Star weekend's Skills Challenge drags on and the Slam Dunk Contest lacks luster, the Three-Point Contest is here to save Saturday nights everywhere.
The participants for the league's 29th long-ball escapade were announced Thursday. Much like the All-Star exhibition itself, the field is loaded with stars:
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, J.J. Redick and reigning champion Marco Belinelli are some of the best nylon-neutralizing shooters alive. In that field of eight, you have each of the five players with the most three-point makes this season—Matthews, Thompson, Curry, Korver, Harden—and three others who have made a lucrative living from beyond the arc.
Looking at the upcoming three-point slate, one cannot help but wonder: Is this the best field in All-Star weekend history?
Reflexively, you want to say yes. At least you should want to say yes. As Jack Winter wrote for DimeMag.com:
"As is, though, does this Three-Point Shootout merit consideration as the best ever? Certainly. The combined star power, current marskmanship and collective relevance of Curry, Thompson, Korver, Matthews and Redick is unprecedented over recent seasons. Whether or not this event tops each one ever put on is more difficult to decide. ...
... But the trio of Curry, Thompson and Korver to headline the field is unquestionably epic, and the inclusion of Matthews and Redick more than sustains excitement. These guys are all key players on four of the league’s best teams; we’ll watch each of them try to shoot their squads deep into spring come playoff time.
"
While past players tend to be mythologized, there is a present-day bias when it comes to certain discussions. When we're here, in the moment, witnessing fantastic feats, it's easy to ignore or overlook events from yesteryear.
There's also the matter of adequately representing the past. Some of us—myself included—weren't even alive when the first three-point contest took place in 1986. Without having watched Larry Bird battle Craig Hodges, Trent Tucker and Sleepy Floyd, among others, how can we give them proper due?
This issue is compounded by this year's mind-bending cast as well. All of these shooters are historical.
Curry is posting an NBA-record 43.4 percent clip from downtown through his first six seasons, among qualifying players. Thompson has already shattered the record for three-pointers made through a player's first four—and his fourth campaign isn't even over yet. The previous touchstone-toter was, you guessed it, Curry.
Korver already owns the best single-season three-point success rate in NBA history, having drilled 53.6 percent of his deep balls in 2009-10. Shooting 53.2 percent from beyond the rainbow this season, he has a real chance at one-upping himself.
Harden is on course to become the 16th player to ever nail at least 38.5 percent of his bombs while averaging 6.5 or more a night. He's doing this for a Houston Rockets outfit that's on pace to obliterate the record for treys made and attempted.
Irving ranks 15th in three-point percentage (38.5) among every player to attempt at least 1,000 through his first four seasons. Somewhat sneakily, Matthews has the 20th-best three-point rate (39.5 percent) among every player to ever jack up 2,000 total deep balls.
Redick checks in at 20th among every player to attempt at least 1,900 (39.6). Belinelli, meanwhile, is special in his own way. He's converted under 37.5 percent of his long-range shots once, making him one of just 22 active players to reach that plateau seven times.
All of which looks and sounds really good. Historical, even. But in the interest of objectivity, we need to parse the numbers even further.
Here's a look at the 10 best combined three-point percentages from the 30 different lineups All-Star weekend has hosted. (Note that there were no All-Star festivities in 1999 due to a lockout. Also note that Rimas Kurtinaitis participated in 1989 even though he didn't play in the NBA. Same goes for Hodges in 1993. They are obviously excluded from the averages of those respective years.)
The 2015 field is tied for second with the 1996 docket. The latter list of participants included Tim Legler, Dennis Scott, Steve Kerr, George McCloud, Dana Barros, Hubert Davis, Glen Rice and Clifford Robinson. That set of shooters hit 42.5 percent of its long balls for the season, just as the 2015 squad is set to do.
First place goes to the 2008 crew, which included Daniel Gibson, Richard Hamilton, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Peja Stojakovic and Jason Kapono. It finished out 2007-08 finding twine on 43.9 percent of its threes.
Volume is important here, though. The three-point shot has become exceedingly popular in recent years. As with any increase in volume, efficiency is expected to decline.
Even though the 2015 class is only a little more than halfway through its season, it has already attempted more threes (2,303) than 17 of its past peers did for an entire campaign. That's absurd.
It's better still when it comes to makes. The eight participants have banged in 978 deep shots just far. That's already more than 19 other classes.
This year's crop of shooters, assuming health, is also on pace to shoot 1,668-of-3,929 from long range. This puts it on track to rank second in makes and total attempts, behind only the group from 2007 that ended the season shooting 1,835-of-4,559 from outside.
Below, you'll see the collective efficiency of this year's squad—both current and projected—compared to its total volume, which is in turn plotted against the participants from seasons past:
When looking at the projected values for this year's participants, their relationship between volume and efficiency is incredible and topped only by the group from 2007, a lineup that included Gilbert Arenas, Damon Jones, Jason Terry, Mike Miller, Nowitzki and Kapono.
Our last test will involve seeing how the average three-point percentage of each class stacks up against the league's average rate from that year. To do that, we'll take the top 10 conversion rates and chart them against the NBA's average from that season.
Behold:
Once again, the 2015 participants prove to be among the absolute best.
Nothing changes when considering the difference in averages between the Three-Point Contest players and the rest of the league:
First off, holy 1988. Byron Scott, Dale Ellis, Detlef Schrempf, Danny Ainge, Mark Price, Tucker, Hodges and Bird absolutely destroyed the league average, eclipsing it by 10 percentage points.
Still, the lineup for 2015 is here again, tied for third in percentage net rating. That's a pretty darn good place to be, and it further contributes to the hype.
These three-point marksmen have usurped the Slam Dunk Contest participants in popularity. This competition has become the cream of All-Star Saturday night's crop.
What's more, the players seem to care about the outcome. Said Curry, per The San Francisco Chronicle's Rusty Simmons:
There's more at stake than Curry ending his 0-3 run in this shootout, though. These eight players aren't just competing against each other; they're competing together, against every other Three-Point Contest squadron in league history.
Is this year's group the best ever?
One could certainly make that case. Though past groups—specifically those from 1988, 2007, 2008—have the edge in certain areas, these modern-day assassins are hoisting threes with nearly unprecedented volume. They're also consistently among the top two and three throughout our tests, something none of the other premier classes can say.
And if the 2015 club is not the best ever now, it certainly can be. If each of the eight contributors continues knocking down threes with historic frequency and accuracy, it only enhances the meaning and status of this year's contest.
That, in addition to the mounting anticipation and unparalleled relevance, means this may not be a question next year, statistically or otherwise. By that time, Curry, Thompson, Korver, Matthews, Harden, Redick, Belinelli and Irving could have solidified themselves as the best amalgam of three-point shooters All-Star weekend has ever seen—provided they haven't done that already.
*All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and are accurate as of games played Feb. 5, 2015, unless otherwise cited. Data for league averages can be specifically found here.
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