Michigan State Basketball: What Spartans Must Do to Keep Tournament Hopes Alive

Michigan State has to do a lot more than improve upon its Big Ten-worst free-throw percentage of .631 if it wants to make the NCAA national tournament.

Of course, sinking freebies would probably increase the Spartans' chances of winning, but they’re also going to need noticeable increases from Matt Costello, Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine if they hope to make a decent impression in March.

It was just one win, but Sunday’s 76-66 overtime thriller over a hobbling Michigan team at the Breslin Center was a firm step in the right direction for Michigan State (15-7, 6-3 B1G) and the aforementioned trio.

Dawson, a 6’6”, 225-pound senior forward, scored 19 points and had 10 rebounds; he also had three steals, two blocks and just two fouls. In short, he had an extremely efficient 41 minutes.

He looked just like the 2013-14 tournament Branden Dawson, which is a great sign for coach Tom Izzo.

Costello, a 6’9”, 245-pound junior forward, scored four of his 10 points during the extra session versus the Wolverines. He also had a block, which was one of four. Sure, the Spartans aren’t a great free-throw shooting team, but the former Mr. Basketball (Michigan) knocked 6-of-7 from the stripe during a crucial rivalry.

It takes poise to do that.

Riding momentum is a must-do for Costello, whose seven boards helped his team win the rebound war, 43-29, on Sunday. The board-collecting types of Tom Izzo teams are the types that do something in the tournament. Despite good stats, Michigan State remains flawed on the glass; but an energized Costello can remedy that situation.

With 14 first-half points, Valentine redeemed himself for a pair of so-so regular-season showings versus Michigan in 2013-14. By tying a season-high 25 points, the 6’5”, 225-pound junior once again rekindled the “what if” argument—as in, “what if he plays that well all of the time?”

The former Lansing Sexton star has eclipsed 20 points four times this season—something he had never done in his previous two years. However, one of Valentine’s downfalls has been turnovers, which continue to take away from an otherwise solid game.

On average, he gives the ball away 2.6 times per game. That’s a poor statistic for one of Izzo’s primary ball-handlers. His versatility is what makes the Spartans impossible to discount at this point, despite a rocky ride into February.

Seventeen straight—Izzo’s riding one heck of a March Madness streak. But it’s in serious risk.

It’s More than Matt

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Developing Costello is, of course, a must. But he can’t do it alone, leaving sophomore Gavin Schilling, a 6’9”, 240-pound forward, next in line to reinforce the starter. Schilling’s offensive game has yet to take over, but he has made noticeable improvements away from the ball and on defense.

Foul trouble can kill a team, and he knocked himself out of Sunday’s game because he couldn’t keep his hands to himself. Again, he’s getting acclimated to the Big Ten—he’s only in his second year—but playing smarter, not tougher, may be his best course of action.

The high-end Schilling can get a double-double. That guy picked up 11 points and 10 rebounds during a 66-60 victory over Penn State and nearly snagged one with 10 and nine during a 70-50 routing of Indiana.

Time to Grow Up

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Freshman guard Lourawls "Tum-Tum" Nairn has learned Big Ten hoops the hard way. Effort-wise, he’s there—no question about it. But the 5’10”, 170-pound point guard isn’t powerful enough to effectively drive to the basket, which takes away from his overall value. There’s a reason why he only played seven minutes Sunday, and it’s because he needs more time.

Here’s the good thing: His 4-of-4 spree during his team’s 71-51 win over Rutgers wasn’t a fluke. There is a lot of potential in Nairn, and it’ll take patience on Izzo’s part to find it. But this year isn’t one for being patient.

Starters are expected to shine, but the need for a deep bench and young, emerging talent may have never been greater for Izzo, who got zero points on two shots from his freshmen on Sunday. Instead of providing a boost, Marvin Clark, Javon Bess and Nairn combined for 21 of the most inefficient minutes of the year.

Meanwhile, Wolverines coach John Beilein was saved due to his first-year guards, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (18 points) and Aubrey Dawkins (seven). They carried the torch late in the second half. If not for MAAR and Dawkins, Beilein would have dropped his eighth one to Michigan State during regulation.

Other than missing two stars, Michigan’s really in no better shape than the Spartans. However, someone always ends up stepping forward for Beilein—and it’s often a youngster.

Michigan State doesn’t have that. Not only does it have to take care of business during its final nine games—two of which are against currently ranked teams—but it has to get more than 21 aimless minutes per game from his freshmen.

Eighteen straight tournaments is all but counting on that to happen. 

Follow Bleacher Report’s Michigan State Spartans basketball writer Adam Biggers on Twitter @AdamBiggers81