NFL Mock Draft 2015: Prospects Who Will Shape Complexion of 1st Round

Wild speculation is beginning to develop into informed opinion regarding the 2015 NFL draft. The Senior Bowl and draft order finalization after Sunday's Super Bowl leave the combine as by far the biggest swing factor remaining on the calendar.

Of course, the combine is the biggest swing factor of all. It's the only place where NFL teams will have the opportunity to see all—or at least a majority—of the best and brightest prospects work out. Even if they skip the physical portion in Indianapolis, the interview process is often an important tiebreaking factor between similarly graded prospects.

At this point, we're working with a more general list of prospects who have established themselves as likely first-rounders but still aren't solidified. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will probably take a quarterback, but we don't know which one. The Chicago Bears need to look at defense, but the hierarchy of players is yet to be set.

As long as you take a vow of non-stupidity—the Colts aren't trading up to select Jameis Winston, for instance—it's easy to put together a coherent first-round mock at this point. Once we get through free agency and the draft board starts solidifying, opinions become a lot more rigid. With that in mind, let's check in on a few prospects whose stock over the next couple months will help shape the first round and predict the outcome.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
2	Tennessee Titans	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
6	New York Jets	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
7	Chicago Bears	Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
10	St. Louis Rams	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
11	Minnesota Vikings	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
12	Cleveland Browns	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
14	Miami Dolphins	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
15	San Francisco 49ers	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
16	Houston Texans	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
17	San Diego Chargers	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida)
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
30	Green Bay Packers	Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
31	Seattle Seahawks	Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
32	New England Patriots	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Winston will be the No. 1 overall pick if he can convince Tampa Bay coaches he's ready to start growing up.

For all of his personal shortcomings, Winston is a more projectable NFL quarterback than Marcus Mariota. His big frame, advanced understanding of defensive philosophies and ability to fire passes into small windows give him nearly every trait necessary. It's possible Winston becomes a better version of Ben Roethlisberger over the long term; Roethlisberger is by far the quarterback I see most when watching his tape.

The Buccaneers aren't as far away from playoff contention as their record indicates. They have one of the NFL's best one-two punches at receiver with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy are superstar anchors defensively, and the remainder of the roster includes a number of solid veterans. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Lovie Smith push for Winston knowing he's the better NFL quarterback right now, with hopes of a postseason run.

Of course, this all depends on how Winston handles himself through this process. His transgressions (some alleged, others proven) at Florida State range from deeply disturbing to wildly blown out of proportion. It could be that Winston is a misunderstood kid who made mistakes out of childish naivete. Or he could be a cancerous malcontent who is yet to learn any lessons because he's skated through life getting away with things based on his talent.

Based on the expression on Jimbo Fisher's face during the College Football Playoff National Championship Game (NSFW language)—a look that indicated quite the opposite feeling of his public support of Winston—I'm not sure which way to lean. We'll get a better sense in the coming months as anonymous sources start coming out of the woodwork.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

We can pretty much repeat the Winston section for Green-Beckham. From a physical standpoint, there is no more talented player in this class than Green-Beckham. The only realistic comp to his frame is Calvin Johnson, who I'm 78 percent sure is not a human being. Green Beckham is a 6'6", 230-pound monster who runs 4.5-second 40-yard dashes in his sleep and can make nearly impossible grabs with his huge catch radius and leaping ability.

When Missouri landed Green-Beckham, the consensus top player in the class of 2012, it seemed like a glitch in the system. Then DGB helped spearhead a Tigers team that put the program in the throes of the SEC elite, all while positioning himself for a huge junior year.

Then it all came falling apart. Numerous off-field incidents led to Green-Beckham's dismissal, which forced an ill-advised attempt to do a quickie transfer to Oklahoma in time for 2014. The NCAA denied Oklahoma's waiver request, and just about everyone in Norman knew at that point Green-Beckham's chances of donning a Sooners uniform were nil.

Now, I have absolutely no clue where Beckham will come off the board. It'd be a near-miracle for him to leap ahead of Alabama's Amari Cooper, the consensus top wideout in the class, or Louisville's DeVante Parker, who has been viewed as Cooper's closest competition. Green-Beckham's best-case scenario is to become the third wideout taken, and even then, he has to compete with West Virginia's Kevin White and Arizona State's Jaelen Strong.

I have him going No. 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs, which feels near the peak of his potential. Just don't be surprised if all hell breaks loose and he winds up sweating out the second day.

The Running Backs

Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Melvin Gordon has a chance to be the first running back taken in the first round since 2012. While falling in line with the ongoing reduced emphasis on the position, it's nonetheless been a historic drought. 2013 and 2014 were the first two instances of a running back not being taken in the first round in history.

Where Gordon lands will be awfully interesting. From a pure talent standpoint, he's probably one of the 10 best players in the class. He's the most explosive back in the class, a guy who averaged more than seven yards per attempt in the Big Ten and nearly broke Barry Sanders' single-season record in 2014. He's also no lilliputian. At 6'1" and 207 pounds, Gordon is more than big enough to withstand NFL punishment.

The biggest knock is his lack of passing-game refinement, which is a problem but not an unsolvable one. We have no idea whether Gordon lacks pass-catching skills because Wisconsin almost never asked him to make those plays. It's never been a part of the Badgers' blueprint. Running backs are there to run, and Gordon did it better than anyone in history. 

I'd say Gordon's draft range begins with the Chargers at No. 17 and ends with where I have him, going No. 27 to Dallas.

Todd Gurley is a different story entirely. Gurley is a Marshawn Lynch-esque bruiser who was well on his way to possibly having a better season than Gordon before a suspension and season-ending injury cast doubt upon his status. Already more of a power back, Gurley's ACL tear will lead teams to wonder whether he'll still have the explosion that made him special at Georgia.

The problem is they aren't going to find out. There's no way Gurley will be close enough to 100 percent to show scouts anything before the draft. They'll be selecting him on spec. In the past, Gurley's brilliant collegiate career may have been enough to keep him in first-round consideration. Now? He'll be crossing his fingers to stay in the second.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter