UNC Basketball: What Tar Heels Must Prove Before Rivalry Game vs. Duke

A week ago, North Carolina seemed like a team that was primed to challenge Virginia for the ACC lead, as everything seemed to be going right. Then came two losses in three days, with both results involving sizable collapses in the second half, and suddenly the Tar Heels have the look of a team in turmoil.

There's too much season left to start looking at this one as a disappointment or one that won't be able to meet expectations, but in order for UNC to get back on track, it has to get some things fixed in the next few weeks.

There's a lull in the schedule, with only two games in the next 12 days, but then comes the big one: Duke.

The first of two regular-season tilts in the best rivalry in college basketball is coming up Feb. 18, in Durham. As it stands right now, the Heels don't look like a team that can hang with the Blue Devils, but that's what the next stretch is for.

Here's a look at some things Carolina needs to address, fix or prove it can still accomplish in order for that highly anticipated game to not end up being a one-sided affair.

It Can Have Chemistry

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Junior guard Marcus Paige had some strong words for his team's play after the Monday home loss to Virginia, alluding to chemistry issues because players aren't "buying in" and that there's a disconnect between some on the team and coach Roy Williams.

Andrew Carter of the Raleigh Observer dissected these comments earlier this week, noting that fellow juniors Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto could be among those Paige was referring to because of how uneven their play has been at times this season.

"Johnson and Tokoto have been instrumental to UNC's success, when the Tar Heels have been successful," Carter wrote. "Both players, though, can be enigmatic."

Every UNC player no doubt read these quotes after they were published, but if that's where things ended, it won't lead to anything getting fixed. UNC had all of this week free to talk it out, and after Saturday's game at Boston College, there's another week away from action.

If there indeed is a disconnect and chemistry issues, these are problems that need to be addressed head on.

Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/2015/02/04/3968374_marcus-paiges-comments-hint-at.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

Show That Toughness Exists

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UNC's front line is still its most imposing part of the team. Starters Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks as well as backups Joel James and Isaiah Hicks give the Tar Heels height at 6'8" or better, and they combine to play more than 70 minutes per game.

But as a whole, the group has gotten very soft of late. In most of the worst performances this season, not having the existence of any toughness inside has been evident, and opponents have capitalized on that.

This interior quartet commits fewer than 10 fouls per game as a group, and that includes offensive calls. With the depth that exists, UNC's frontcourt players should be banging around and sending a message that easy baskets won't come, but that's not been the case.

There's More Than One Shooter

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While Marcus Paige's numbers are down from a year ago, there's one specific part of his game that remains at exactly the same level as in 2013-14. And this isn't a good thing, because it speaks to a major hole in UNC's offensive game.

Paige has made 58 three-pointers, seven more than the entire rest of the Tar Heels roster. His 149 attempts from outside are only 19 fewer than all of the other UNC players, but no three of them have combined to take as many perimeter shots.

Last season, Paige made 86 threes to 60 by the rest of the Heels, and his 221 tries were eight more than the remainder of the roster.

If Paige was lights-out from downtown, this wouldn't matter much. But while his 39.2 percent is good, it's not good enough to warrant being the only viable outside shooting option.

Nate Britt and Justin Jackson are the other choices, but their rates (38.5 and 20.4 percent, respectively) haven't indicated they can be that second shooter. Britt could, making seven of his last 12, but more evidence needs to be seen that he can sustain that pace.

Fatigue Won't Be an Issue

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Only Marcus Paige plays 32 minutes per game this season, but across the board the time logged is going up for other players, as North Carolina's depth has taken a hit. Theo Pinson has missed the last four games with a foot injury, and Joel Berry II hasn't played in the past seven contests while dealing with a groin ailment.

Those freshmen were only playing 14.6 and 10.9 minutes per game, respectively, but those were big minutes. In most cases, they were in there to spell a starter and allow them to rest, but without access to those backups, the rotation has whittled down to six players for the 1, 2 and 3 spots.

The fatigue showed over the weekend, with Louisville noticeably wearing down UNC on Saturday in erasing an 18-point lead, and the same happened in the second half against Virginia. It showed in sluggish play on defense and sloppiness in the half-court set.

With the sizable breaks between games during the stretch before facing Duke, there's an opportunity for players to rest up (and possibly for Pinson or Berry to return). That should help with fatigue, but it can still pop up if the regulars aren't prepared to keep logging big minutes.

The Turnovers Will Stop

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A recent win over Florida State saw North Carolina commit fewer turnovers (five) than in any of the previous 414 games he'd coached with the Tar Heels.

Then UNC turned into a team of butterfingers, turning it over 20 times in a win over Syracuse, 19 times in losing at Louisville and 16 times against Virginia.

At 13.1 turnovers per game, the Heels rank 206th nationally in that statistic. They're 79th in turnover percentage, the 15.4 percent rate reflecting the tempo they play at, but in those three games the opponents scored 23.7 percent of their points (56 of 236) off turnovers.

Duke is a master of taking advantage of turnover-prone teams and scoring in transition. This is an area that needs to be fixed in a hurry.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP