Super Bowl Odds 2015: Final Predictions for Patriots vs. Seahawks Winner, Score

After two weeks of bluster, chatter, analysis and number-crunching, the 2015 Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is still too tough to call.

The oddsmakers are hardly tipping their hand with their minimal one-point spread. Both teams feature similar blueprints for success—dominant secondaries, sure tackling, powerful running backs and smart quarterback play—with obvious differences in certain areas (Russell Wilson's rushing ability, Rob Gronkowski's downfield dominance).

Pete Carroll is almost as much of a championship-tested coach as Bill Belichick—though most of his experience came in college.

Even the advanced metrics fail to clear up the future. Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz noted how tough this contest is to read, with stats based around their efficiency metric, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA): 

"

This Super Bowl could not be a closer statistical matchup. Our playoff odds formula gives New England a 50.5 percent chance of winning Super Bowl XLIX. Our FO Premium spread formula projects the line as New England -0.27. You are reading that correctly. That's less than half a point.

If we were to use the "total season including playoffs" DVOA ratings rather than the weighted ratings, our picks would be Seattle in 52.2 percent of simulations with a projected line of Seattle by -0.55. That's still basically a toss-up. By comparison, last year we had Seattle winning 58.3 percent of simulations with a projected line of Seattle -2.8.

"

Well, they tried to parse this one out. It all comes down to Sunday at University of Phoenix Stadium, so let's go once more into the breach with a bold scoreline prediction, followed by a look at one of the game's most intriguing matchups.

Quarter-by-Quarter Score Prediction

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Patriots	0	10	3	10	23
Seahawks	7	3	7	7	24

Super Bowl 2015 Odds, Viewing Info

Time (ET): 6:30 p.m

Matchup (Spread): New England Patriots (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Money Line: NE 100-107, SEA 100-103

Over/Under: 47.5, Over 100-101, Under 100-109

TV: NBC

Live Stream: NBCSports.com

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Saturday, Jan. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Key Matchup to Watch: Rob Gronkowski vs. Kam Chancellor

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Sure, more digital ink could be spilled about the key matchup between Seahawks holder/punter Jon Ryan and the New England field-goal-blocking unit, but that contest isn't likely to swing this game. The two people who will determine the course of this game are Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor and Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

The Seahawks ground a great many passing attacks to dust this season, but few teams they faced featured a bludgeoning pass-catcher like Gronkowski. The bruising tight end totaled 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

While the likes of Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are fine receivers in their own right, they don't figure to match up very well against Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman—unless the latter two are preoccupied by Gronk's whereabouts.

That means Kam Chancellor—and whichever linebacker is occasionally tasked with roughing up Gronkowski at the line of scrimmage—will be instrumental in stifling the Patriots passing attack.

Tight ends have been Seattle's kryptonite this season. According to ESPN Stats & Info, quarterbacks have an 87.2 QB rating when targeting tight ends and have thrown 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions. With this in mind, double-digit targets are to be expected for Gronkowski.

If the Patriots can get Gronkowski going early and gash the Seahawks defense, it could open up opportunities underneath for the likes of Edelman and Danny Amendola. Indeed, Brady thrived in the short passing game this year, with 387 of his 565 attempts traveling no further than nine yards downfield, per ESPN.com.

However, the Patriots passing attack could collapse if Chancellor can get the secondary playing downhill. He's well regarded for his bone-rattling hits, and laying the wood on a player like Gronkowski could serve as a significant psychological blow to New England.

Grantland's Robert Mays detailed Chancellor's impact on Seattle's defense:

"

There’s no single reason for Seattle’s success on defense. The Seahawks have found undervalued talent — both Sherman and Chancellor were fifth-round picks — and developed it well. The defense is relatively simple, and lined with players perfectly tailored to it. But it’s about more than development and strategy. The Seahawks are scary. That’s what Chancellor provides. He doesn’t like to call it fear. To him, it’s respect. But by any name, it’s real. The hits — and the threat of them — make opponents blink first.

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There is some worry here with Chancellor. He suffered a knee injury late in practice on Friday, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra, but Carroll felt that he practiced well on Saturday.

"He looked pretty good today," Carroll said. "We will make sure we test him in pregame, but he remarkably looked great today, and so that's all we have to go on."

It should be noted that Sherman and Thomas will also be battling injuries in this contest, which could limit the help Chancellor receives.

If anything, a banged-up Legion of Boom is a green light for the Pats to go all-out with their passing attack. LeGarrette Blount is a tough, smart running back, but Seattle's defense has been incredibly tough against the run this year. There is no incentive in this game for New England to turn away from what's worked for them thus far.

Brady will need to find Gronkowski to establish the passing game, but Chancellor will determine whether or not that goal is accomplished.