Super Bowl Prop Bets 2015: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice

The Super Bowl, as John Oliver told David Letterman earlier this week, represents "peak America" in both the best and worst ways.

Once a simple football game, the NFL championship has turned into a grand spectacle that is bizarre for onlookers like the British comedian. Nowhere else does a game turn into the world's weirdest pop concert midway through, with advertisers begging everyone to buy cars and drink beer the entire time.

And the betting. Oh, the betting. Gamblers Anonymous needs to work overtime this weekend, where every single outcome and player movement has odds or an over-under line. (Seriously, bet responsibly, if at all.)

Odds Shark's scroll of Super Bowl prop bets is daunting and hilarious at the same time. Fans around the nation will time the national anthem and eagerly await Bill Belichick's fashion choice just as much as Katy Perry's outfit. 

You're on your own with those, but some meatier prop bets can actually get analyzed. Since the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are actually playing a full football game in between this circus, there's always the old-fashioned point spread and over-under line to scrutinize as well.

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

When: Sunday, Feb. 1 at 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Live Extra

Odds (via Odds Shark on Sunday, Feb. 1 at 9 a.m. ET)

• Spread: Patriots (-1)
• Over/Under: 47.5

Notable Prop Bets

Prop Bet	Odds/Line	Prediction
How many times will "Deflated Balls" be referred to during the game?	Over/Under 2.5	Over
Will it be mentioned that Pete Carroll was the last head coach of the Patriots?	Yes (11-10), No (2-3)	Yes
Longest Completion - Tom Brady	Over/Under 37.5	Under
Total Rushing Yards - LeGarrette Blount	Over/Under 62.5	Over
Will LeGarrette Blount (NE) score a TD in the game?	Yes (11-10), No (5-7)	Yes
Total Receptions - Julian Edelman	Over/Under 6	Over
Total Yards on 1st Rushing Attempt - Russell Wilson	Over/Under 5.5	Over
Total Receiving Yards - Luke Willson	Over/Under 27.5	Over
Total Receptions - Luke Willson	Over/Under 2.5	Over
Team to Score the Longest Touchdown in the Game	Patriots/Seahawks	Seahawks

Let's just get a silly one out of the way. Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will mention the AFC Championship Game's deflated footballs three or more times during New England's first offensive drive, let alone the entire game. 

That one looks suspiciously easy.

After shredding the Indianapolis Colts for 148 rushing yards on 30 carries, LeGarrette Blount's line is set at 62.5 yards. This makes sense when viewing his 61.4 yards per game on the ground since joining New England.

His one-yard outing against the Baltimore Ravens, however, torpedoes that average. Ranked No. 4 against the run but No. 23 against the pass during the season, Baltimore offered a vulnerable secondary that the Patriots happily exploited.

Seattle is fierce on both fronts, but not unstoppable. It allowed 270 rushing yards in two playoff games, surrendering 4.5 yards per attempt. While he didn't cite those stats, Blount shared a similar message to reporters on Super Bowl media day, via ESPN.com's Mike Reiss.

"I don't care about them being the top defense, that doesn't bother me," Blount said. "They were good enough to get here, just like we were good enough to get here. They're not immortal. They can be beaten."

Elsa/Getty Images

Belichick often changes running backs on a whim, but Blount has served as the primary rusher since returning. He's more than capable of producing 75 yards if given 15-20 handoffs.

On the other end, Seattle must unleash Luke Willson on the grand stage. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots rank last in defensive DVOA against opposing tight ends. 

New England's previous playoff opponents duly noted that rate. Joe Flacco targeted Owen Daniels 11 times in the divisional round, resulting in 41 yards and a touchdown. During a dreadful passing day for the Colts, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen combined for seven catches and 60 yards. (Everyone else totaled a combined five receptions for 66 yards.)

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Willson only corralled 22 receptions during the season, but the big-bodied tight end has exhibited massive big-play potential down the stretch. Over the past four games, he has registered 250 yards and three scores, most notably an 80-yard touchdown in Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals.

To surpass his lines, all Willson must do is catch three balls for 28 yards. Considering Darrelle Revis will shadow Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse, Russell Wilson has an added impetus to seek out his tight end in a favorable matchup.

Point-Spread Advice

This is the closest a game can get. During the season, the home team gets the points in this type of matchup, and that would probably serve as the proper pick. Seattle's 12th Man is well fabled, often to laughable heights, but New England boasts the same 9-1 mark at Foxborough.

In a neutral site, this contest is a coin-flip game. 

Using weighted DVOA to add more merit to recent play, Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, via ESPN.com, labeled this history's closest Super Bowl matchup.

"

The Patriots started the year 2-2 and the Seahawks began the year 3-3, though no one Seattle loss stands out like New England's 41-14 debacle in Kansas City in Week 4. Those games are mostly gone in the weighted formula, thus the Seahawks and Patriots finished the season 1-2 in weighted DVOA. Adding in the postseason -- where the Patriots clobbered Indianapolis, while the Seahawks narrowly escaped a loss to Green Bay -- puts the Patriots ahead of the Seahawks in our weighted DVOA ratings by a single percentage point, 39.8 percent to 38.8 percent.

"

Translation: Bet at your own risk. These types of affairs can get decided by a questionable call, mid-game injury, one random play or simply whichever team controls the ball last. In line with Vegas' one-point edge, Schatz gave New England the narrow edge.

Since that embarrassing loss to the Chiefs, New England has lost just two games. One was a Week 17 clash against the Buffalo Bills after already locking up the No. 1 seed. The other was an evenly played 26-21 loss at Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers did not lose all year. 

One would need a microscope to identify the gap between these clubs, but the Patriots are the more complete team by a hair.

Elsa/Getty Images

At first glance, the 47.5 over-under line looks far too high. While the Seahawks sport the league's premier defense, the Patriots shut down Andrew Luck to 3.8 yards per attempt two weeks ago. 

Then the Packers foolishly played extremely conservative with a lead, only for Aaron Rodgers to breeze down the field when they needed a game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Both of Seattle's games barely exceeded that line, and Cam Newton is no Tom Brady.

It's easy to perceive Seattle as a tame offense, yet it averages 25.2 points per game, including postseason play. With 80 points through two postseason tilts, New England upped its scoring tally to 30.4 points per game.

With Belichick and Tom Brady in charge, four of New England's five Super Bowl bouts have fallen under that margin, and Seattle won't match last year's 43-point outburst over the Denver Broncos. For the under to prevail, it must careen narrowly under the line in a 24-21 type of outcome.

Either way, fans and gamblers alike will spend the final minutes on the edge of their seats.